Austrian Presidential runoff re-vote (Dec. 4) - Your Predictions

[peterthlee]

I’ve been predicting all around and I’m jeered by the US Election results this year.
This will be my WILD GUESS.

Nationwide (AT): Van der Bellen 53-47
-----------------------------------------
Burgenland (BL): Safe FPO-Solid, Hofer 58-42
Carinthia (KT): Safe FPO-Strong, Hofer 56-44
Styria (SR): Likely FPO, Hofer 53-47
Salzburg (SB): Tilt I, Van der Bellen 50.5-49.5
Lower Austria (NH): Tilt I, Van der Bellen 51-49
Upper Austria (OH): Likely I, Van der Bellen 54-46
Tyrol (TR): Safe I-Strong, Van der Bellen 57-43
Vorarlberg (VB): Safe I-Solid, Van der Bellen 62-38
Vienna (WN): Safe I-Solid, Van der Bellen 67-33

[peterthlee]

Austria has always had direct presidential elections. However, the previous ones were gerrymandered by the governing coalition of SPO and OVP. This election is placed under spotlight because neither SPO nor OVP advanced to the runoff. In addition, in political practice, the president holds nominal power and the chancellor runs the country from day to day. Norbert Gerwald Hofer would like to stick to the constitution (implementing a semi-presidential system).

[peterthlee]

http://tsjh301.blogspot.hk/2016/11/austrianpresidentialelection2016.html
(from a Taiwanese website)
Probability: Hofer 55.8-44.2
PV: Hofer 50.72-49.28
(similar to jaichind)

[peterthlee]

Thanks Branson.
A sigh of relief.