Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

Austrian TV stations (ORF, PULS 4, ATV, Servus TV, oe24.tv) are planning more than 60 (!) debates/duels etc. for the fall campaign ...

http://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/50224394

Oh man ...

[Tender Branson]

The Greens have decided to turn Kern and Kurz* into a gay couple:



"Let's do it, Kurz: Yes to marriage for everyone."

or

"Let's do it, quick: Yes to marriage for everyone."

...

*Kurz in English means "short" or "quick".

...

Update:

SPÖ+Greens+NEOS have recently said they would vote for a new "Marriage for all"-Law.

FPÖ+TS have ruled this out.

A few days ago, Kurz said in an interview that he likes the fact that all the main differences between the hetero marriage law and civil union law have been removed, but would not say if the ÖVP votes with SPÖ/Greens/NEOS on a "Marriage for all"-Law. Almost definitely not.

Austria now has gay "marriage" in all-but-name, plus full adoption rights etc.

In fact, the civil union law is actually superior to the antiquated hetero marriage law from the 1970s.

Read more here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261713.0

[Tender Branson]

ATV Trend Poll (conducted June 1-8, n=704, online and phone, MoE = +/- 3.7%):

34% ÖVP
26% SPÖ
24% FPÖ
  9% Greens
  5% NEOS
  2% Others

Chancellor vote:

34% Kurz (ÖVP)
27% Kern (SPÖ-incumbent)
13% Strache (FPÖ)
  4% Lunacek (Greens)
  2% Strolz (NEOS)

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20170609_OTS0174/atv-oesterreich-trend-kurz-klare-nummer-eins-fpoe-nur-noch-auf-platz-3

[Tender Branson]

First campaign video for Chancellor Kern (a biographical one):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prfvIAxgMag

With English subtitles.

[Tender Branson]

More from the ATV Trend poll:



"Which candidate do you trust most in finding the best solutions on these issues ?"

* make Austria more competetive again economically
* deal with immigration and integration in a way that helps immigrants, but not burdens Austrians
* make the Social System/Services sustainable and fit for the future
* reduce taxes, so that work is paying off
* reform the education system, so that Austrian kids are among the best
* secure the pension system for future generations
* create enough jobs and lower unemployment
* reform the healthcare system, so that all Austrians enjoy the same good medical treatment

[Tender Branson]

The turnout indicator in the ATV poll is 77% (those who say they are "certain" to vote on a scale from 0-10).

But the pollster says this could rise to 80% or more during the campaign because voters are tuned out right now with summer and everything.

Btw, ÖVP voters say they are most likely to vote in October.

[Tender Branson]

President Van der Bellen approval poll:

46% approve
34% disapprove
20% undecided (!)

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oesterreicher-van-bellen-8186296

[Tender Branson]

Today, a meeting is scheduled in Vienna between representatives of several small leftist parties/groups to form a joint leftist alliance for the election.

Time is running out for such a joint alliance, because signature collection starts on July 25 and state lists have to be handed in by August 18.

It would certainly be interesting to get such an alliance onto the ballot with a potential of up to 2-4%, rather than each party having 0.4% on their own.

Leftist groups include: KPÖ, Wandel, Aufbruch, Echt Rot, Pirate Party, SLP, Wien Anders etc.

[Tender Branson]

Irmgard Griss (3rd in the Presidential election as an Indy last year with 19%) will not run for the ÖVP:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/irmgard-griss-wird-nicht-fuer-die-kurz-oevp-kandidieren/269.056.859

The chances are now higher than ever that she'll run for the liberal NEOS (or decides not to run for anyone).

If she runs for NEOS, all parties would have a really good lineup of frontrunners this year.

[Tender Branson]

The Vienna and Tyrol Greens elected their state party lists for the Oct. election today.

For Vienna, it is Ulrike Lunacek, Albert Steinhauser, Sigrid Maurer, Markus Koza (picture on top) and Ewa Dziedzic (picture below):





In Tyrol, the list is led by Berivan Aslan, followed by Thomas Haidenberger.

Currently, 5 of the 24 Green MPs are from Vienna, 2 from Tyrol.

[Tender Branson]

Today, a meeting is scheduled in Vienna between representatives of several small leftist parties/groups to form a joint leftist alliance for the election.

Time is running out for such a joint alliance, because signature collection starts on July 25 and state lists have to be handed in by August 18.

It would certainly be interesting to get such an alliance onto the ballot with a potential of up to 2-4%, rather than each party having 0.4% on their own.

Leftist groups include: KPÖ, Wandel, Aufbruch, Echt Rot, Pirate Party, SLP, Wien Anders etc.

The meeting was inconclusive according to Twitter reports. Some don't even want to run in the election (Aufbruch), while others want to run alone (KPÖ) and others preferring a joint list.

It's pretty annoying they cannot find some common ground and aim for the 4% threshold together, considering the SPÖ and the Greens are not really in a good shape right now ...

[DavidB.]

Not surprising. Far-left factions hate each other much more than they hate ÖVP or FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Both the CPÖ (Christian Party of Austria) and the migrant party NBZ (New Movement for the Future) have officially declared they will run in the October election.

CPÖ frontrunner: Rudolf Gehring
NBZ frontrunner: Adnan Dinçer

[Tender Branson]

Another interesting fact:

The Vienna-Suburbs (= Wien-Umgebung) district was dissolved on Jan. 1, 2017 - with parts of it being merged with other districts surrounding Vienna.

This means the election maps in Lower Austria won't be fully comparable with the 2013 results map. The Vienna suburbs have always been a major battleground, with an SPÖ-tendency and a good Green and NEOS showing.

So, if the SPÖ continues to do well there in October it could weaken the ÖVP-districts slightly that some parts were merged with, making them slightly more competetive overall.

[Tender Branson]

Today, a meeting is scheduled in Vienna between representatives of several small leftist parties/groups to form a joint leftist alliance for the election.

Time is running out for such a joint alliance, because signature collection starts on July 25 and state lists have to be handed in by August 18.

It would certainly be interesting to get such an alliance onto the ballot with a potential of up to 2-4%, rather than each party having 0.4% on their own.

Leftist groups include: KPÖ, Wandel, Aufbruch, Echt Rot, Pirate Party, SLP, Wien Anders etc.

What ideological factions do each of these parties represent?

They range from old-school Communists to disappointed Social Democrats to student groups and just left-progressive groups.

But they are too meaningless anyway, especially if they cannot agree on a platform ...

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, Kurz's goal is to shake 1 million hands (or meet 1 million people) during the next 4 months of campaigning.

Kurz has already cancelled his vacations and will campaign non-stop, with meetings in a lot of rural towns, company visits, hiking tours etc. (Van der Bellen for example went hiking too).

Newspapers also report that Kurz built a lot of ties to attract money from big business.

In general, Austrian campaign finance law says that parties can spend no more than 7 million € for the election (but the penalties for spending more are not really high: for example, the Team Stronach spent 15 million € in 2013 and paid a penalty of 500.000€)

With the big business backing, newspapers estimate that Kurz will spend some 20 million € on the campaign.

[TheSaint250]

Is Van Der Bellen doing any campaigning?

[Tender Branson]

Is Van Der Bellen doing any campaigning?

Nope. The President, once sworn in, has to be strictly non-partisan.

(Even though we have to wait and see if VdB would accept and swear in a ÖVP-FPÖ or FPÖ-ÖVP coalition if these parties agree to a coalition contract, or if he decides to ignore the wishes of the voters and the 2 parties ...)

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP will elect 4 new vice-party leaders for Kurz tonight - with the current ones all being removed - including long-time MP and hardliner Reinhold Lopatka.



Among the 4 new deputies for Kurz, 3 will be women:

* Bettina Glatz-Kremsner (54), CEO of Casinos Austria, from Lower Austria.

* Barbara Eibinger-Miedl (37), ÖVP-government member in Styria.

* Veronika Marte (35), ÖVP-city council member in Vorarlberg.

* Thomas Stelzer (50), current ÖVP-governor in Upper Austria.

http://orf.at/#/stories/2395038

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think VdB would object to SOME ministers and secretaries.

like the conservative candidate thomas klestil also did 18 years ago.

if i was strache, i wouldn't try to become vice chancellor anyway.

people like hofer (well, in fact he is a hard hard hard HARDLINER with a soft voice like corbyn but we are goin to ignore that cause of his popularity) and haimbuchner surely would be acceptable, gudenus and  others would be much more in danger, imho.


and HALLELUJA - mister lopatka can't be removed from our politics fast enough.

[Tender Branson]

i think VdB would object to SOME ministers and secretaries.

like the conservative candidate thomas klestil also did 18 years ago.

if i was strache, i wouldn't try to become vice chancellor anyway.

people like hofer (well, in fact he is a hard hard hard HARDLINER with a soft voice like corbyn but we are goin to ignore that cause of his popularity) and haimbuchner surely would be acceptable, gudenus and would be much more in danger, imho.


and HALLELUJA - mister lopatka can't be removed from our politics fast enough.

President Klestil objected to some FPÖ ministers because they were clearly incompetent for their future offices.

I guess VdB won't object to any single FPÖ-cabinet member because Strache will have learned from the past and would only appoint people who have a good knowledge of the ministry and/or who were in parliament for some time.

VdB would probably only object to Strache being in the government ...

[Tender Branson]

After the sexism scandal in the Vienna-SPÖ, the SPÖ there now also had to kick out a radical Salafist party member after he said on Twitter that terror attacks are tolerable by Allah.

Also, the SPÖ is currently in a very annoying debate about what to do with the FPÖ after the election. The party is split in half, with the one side opposing the FPÖ and the other half wanting to work with them. It seems the party is in a lose-lose situation on this issue: No matter what Kern and the leadership decide, one half will be pissed off and not really motivated. Some want to poll all 200.000 party members before the election, some after the election ...

So, it's not really surprising that Kern is increasingly doing a "Kurz" and wants to put himself and his family in the centre. The party right now just seems a massive drag.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ is out with a first hybrid attack/positive message ad today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVXgxTfskvg

In the first part of the ad, they attack Kurz on his 14 Bio. € tax plan and then they show how their Plan A is the better one.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz makes another push to close the Mediterranean Route for migrants:

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article165476416/Wie-Kurz-die-Mittelmeerroute-ganz-schliessen-will.html

[Tender Branson]

The "Kronen Zeitung" reports that the SPÖ/Kern will end their opposition to the FPÖ as a coalition partner tomorrow, with the presentation of their so-called "criteria catalogue":



http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/nach-30-jahren-ende-fuer-spoe-vranitzky-doktrin-verhaeltnis-zur-fpoe-story-573999

This means that the federal SPÖ is giving up a hardline position against the FPÖ after more than 30 years, when then Chancellor Vranitzky established his "anti-fascist barrier" against the FPÖ, ruling out any future coalitions with them on the federal and state level. This position was also agreed to and renewed by delegates at every federal SPÖ party convention since then.

The criteria catalogue has several demands in it, ranging from human rights issues to a pro-European position etc., which the FPÖ has to agree to in a coalition contract if they want to govern together with the SPÖ.