Labour Leadership/Deputy Leadership Election thread

[minionofmidas]

Did I miss something? Is Tony Blair resigning?

[minionofmidas]

Hey Afleitch, who authored that nice quote in your sig?

[minionofmidas]

Why do our Tory friends assume that they will gain seats next time?

IMO Labour could gain seats against the trend when the anti war vote comes back. Seats like Shrewsbury & Atcham (10% swing to Lib Dem), also I think Withington, Chesterfield, Rochdale and Yardley could come back as well.

While I have no doubt that Labour will regain seats they lost to the Lib Dems and may see a swing towards them in seats like Crawley for example, I believe any Labour gains will be offset by sustained losses to the Conservatives. There may be the odd upset, similar to the Tories gaining Aberdeen South in 1992 for example, but even the slightest move to the Tories would see Labour seats fall.

Good Point.

Regarding the old "Severn to The Wash" Line (outside of London).

I cant see us (Lab) losing the following seats in the foreeable future :

 Both Plymouth Seats
Exeter
Bristol South & East
Kingswood
Both Southampton Seats
Oxford East
Brighton Pavillion
Dover
Reading West
Slough
Stevenage
Watford
Thurrock
Basildon
Swindon North
Ipswich
Both Norwich Seats
Both Luton Seats

I'd add Kemptown (but see Al on South Essex. I have no idea how the massive boundary changes there will affect the political balance of individual seats, hence I wouldn't, right now, predict anything there.)

[minionofmidas]

Nice work; is that total votes or average share?

Total votes, I decided that would work as the parties shown ran a full slate of candidates in every ward, although there was a large amount of vote splitting.

Uh, in that case, wouldn't total votes and average share be the same thing anyhow?

Now, what changes things is when you use the highest no. of votes received by any of the party's candidates...

[minionofmidas]

It's emerged that Tom Watson (best known for the spoof teens section on his blog, and for his role in the Hodge Hill by-election) was one of the 17. He is currently a junior Defense Minister...

Surely if thats true he must resign from the government. Or at least be sacked?

That would be true only if Tony Blair still had a future.

[minionofmidas]

Meanwhile, Khalid Mahmood as resigned as a PPS.

Reasons given?

[minionofmidas]

I doubt many of those I mean would agree, but deep down Labour simply do not trust Blair to ever step down without pressure, certainly not to do so at an opportune moment.

[minionofmidas]

A YouGov poll of Labour members says that 59% want Blair to resign before May, while 38% want him to go this autumn.

So how many people want him to go in May, how many want him to go after May, and how many want him not to go at all?
(I assume that "while" should be "including"?)

[minionofmidas]

Given how strongly Brits feel about loyality in the cabinet, he's right.

[minionofmidas]

Seeing as it's reasonable to assume that Labour would win a majority of seats in a hypothetical election in which all factors are equal

Well, yeah. In other words, it's not about the British people so much as it's about the British parliamentary system.

[minionofmidas]

Well, yeah. In other words, it's not about the British people so much as it's about the British parliamentary system.

True o/c. And also true of the Tories in the '80's; one book I read a while ago mentioned that Labour's hopes of winning a majority in the Commons were so small that one of the seats they'd have to win was Finchley.

And they did, in 1997.

[minionofmidas]

The cover of McDonnell's manifesto sort of demonstrates why he be in trouble:



It's the red star that does it...

It's beautiful.

So, knowing Britain, there won't even be a yes/no vote? Shame about it.

[minionofmidas]

Al objects to making threads about polls, so I'll put it here:
Labour 39
Tories 36
LD 15.
First clear Labour lead (though still within MoE) in a while.