Australia 2013 - Results thread

[Vosem]

More Senate results: in the ACT, the ALP gets 1, while for the other the Liberals are under a quota but nevertheless win the last seat from the Greens by what is currently a margin of 282 votes; basically, Animal Justice and Rise Up Australia preferences. Lol.

And a similar result in the NT; the CLP gets 1, while the ALP falls under a quota for the other but wins due to Sex Party preferences.

So, Tas+Qld+Territories, so far: 7 Coalition, 6 ALP, 2 PUP, 1 Green. Some of those are just by several hundred votes, though.

[RogueBeaver]

I believe Antony Green said earlier Mirabella's in serious trouble if her primary's below 45. As for Senate, I only hope for Coalition control and Sinodonos' reelection.

[Talleyrand]

Some early results are in from the two vast rural seats in WA, and the WA Nationals are doing well. In Durack, held by retiring Liberal Barry Haase, they're up with 52.9% of the vote, a solid swing in their favor, while they're holding on so far in O'Connor with 50.9% of the vote, a 2.7% swing to the Liberals.

[Vosem]

I believe Antony Green said earlier Mirabella's in serious trouble if her primary's below 45. As for Senate, I only hope for Coalition control and Sinodonos' reelection.

Well, NSW results as being reported right now:

1   Bob CARR   Australian Labor Party
2   Doug CAMERON   Australian Labor Party
3   Ursula STEPHENS   Australian Labor Party
4   Cate FAEHRMANN   Australian Greens
5   David LEYONHJELM   Liberal Democratic Party
6   Pauline HANSON   One Nation

You'd better be hoping for Marise Payne's reelection...

EDIT: And now here are Victoria's Senate results, from the same universe the NSW ones are coming from:

1   Gavin MARSHALL   Australian Labor Party
2   Janet RICE   Australian Greens
3   Jacinta COLLINS   Australian Labor Party
4   Mehmet TILLEM   Australian Labor Party
5   Fiona PATTEN   Australian Sex Party
6   Barry MICHAEL   Palmer United Party

Coalition, 0 votes.

[Platypus]

Looking like 87-90 Coalition, and between 52.5-53.0% TPP.

Which means Labor would struggle to win in three years, but it's certainly not impossible. It also means the Senate is safe.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Looks like I was wrong about Eden-Monaro, underestimated Kelly's personal vote there.

Results are finally beginning to shape up over my way (WA), so far the Nationals are up in Durack, and big pro-Liberal swings in Moore and Canning. Labor look like they will hold their 3 seats, and have so far managed to get a swing to them in my seat (Cowan).

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Lindsay back to safe gain. 10 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Kennedy and Melbourne are both 'in doubt 3rd party ahead' right now...Denison and Fairfax, though, are safe...

Hindmarsh and Lingiari both at safe gain -- both were predicted, but still kind of amazing results. 12 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

And, heading back east to Sydney for a second, Reid is now a safe gain. So now Sydney has pretty much been entirely filled in (except Barton, that's still close; kind of amazing, it was thought of as reasonably safe ALP), since Greenway and Parramatta are rated 'safe ALP hold'. 13 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Reid, Robertson.

And Reid seems to have been demoted to 'in doubt' from safe, so take it off that list; the number is back to 12.

And now Petrie has become 'safe LNP gain'; the first seat to switch between the major parties in Queensland. The 13 gains right now: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Petrie, Robertson.

[Platypus]

Really got it wrong in Tassie. Oops.

WA -  the WA Nationals winning Durack and O'Connor is a bit of a shame, as the Liberal candidates were both fantastic.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Rightly so Anton! I never doubted Kelly.

Thanks be the Senate is safe - I believe we've got a decent chance to make significant in-roads in 2016 ...  it's a smaller margin than 1996 so easily retrievable and quite close to 2004...

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd's going up to concede now.

[Vosem]

Really got it wrong in Tassie. Oops.

WA -  the WA Nationals winning Durack and O'Connor is a bit of a shame, as the Liberal candidates were both fantastic.

The Liberals just took the lead in both seats -- by 1.0% in Durack and 0.4% in O'Connor.

[Vosem]

In South Australia the Nick Xenophon Group is ahead (pretty solidly, too, 24-20) of the ALP!

[Platypus]

Please, trust a Victorian - ignore Senate results until at least Wednesday

[Vosem]

Please, trust a Victorian - ignore Senate results until at least Wednesday

But they're so tantalizingly chaotic

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Lindsay back to safe gain. 10 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Kennedy and Melbourne are both 'in doubt 3rd party ahead' right now...Denison and Fairfax, though, are safe...

Hindmarsh and Lingiari both at safe gain -- both were predicted, but still kind of amazing results. 12 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

And, heading back east to Sydney for a second, Reid is now a safe gain. So now Sydney has pretty much been entirely filled in (except Barton, that's still close; kind of amazing, it was thought of as reasonably safe ALP), since Greenway and Parramatta are rated 'safe ALP hold'. 13 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Reid, Robertson.

And Reid seems to have been demoted to 'in doubt' from safe, so take it off that list; the number is back to 12.

And now Petrie has become 'safe LNP gain'; the first seat to switch between the major parties in Queensland. The 13 gains right now: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Petrie, Robertson.

And Capricornia has become 'safe LNP gain' as well. 14 gains: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Capricornia, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Petrie, Robertson.

[Platypus]

Squealer at Rudd's speech really annoying

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't understand how Dobell remains so close...

[Platypus]

Demographically naturally ALP. Expect it to be a Labor gain next time around. But yeah, it should've been a bigger swing all things considered.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

ABC seems to be saying the Greens have won the second ACT Senate seat ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You also have several independents polling non-tiny (if still amusingly low given the egos) amounts, and maybe there are issues there or whatever.

[Talleyrand]

Rudd has announced his resignation as Labor leader.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Rudd win not seek the leadership ...give it 12 months he'll retire

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Basic pattern very clear now. Can expect some of the usual weird goings on in the seats that are close, but that won't be settled for a while.

[Vosem]

Everything else seems pretty normal, but in South Australia, good lord:

1   Cory BERNARDI   Liberal Party
2   Nick XENOPHON   Nick Xenophon Group
3   Penny WONG   Australian Labor Party
4   Simon BIRMINGHAM   Liberal Party
5   Sarah HANSON-YOUNG   Australian Greens
6   Bob DAY   Family First Party

What does Victoria look like if these are the results from South Australia?!

[Platypus]

Only really the propolls left in McEwen, so slight AEC margin will go the other way on provisional 2PP.

BUT they have the Palmer votes going half-half, and I suspect they'll go more like 66-33. It'll be line-ball, but I reckon Mitchell's got up.

Indi: I'm calling it for Cathy.

Fairfax: NFI.

[hawkeye59]

Ugh.