Australia 2013 - Results thread

[Smid]

2013 Australian Federal Election - Two Candidate Preferred Swing
Interim Version


In seats where one party in a 2CP result has changed, the change in the other party's 2CP result has been used. This is the case in Sydney, Grayndler, Lyne, New England, Fairfax, and Durack.

[Hatman 🍁]

Both working now. Looks fantabulous as usual.

It helps to use my colour key.

Problem with Australia though is, all the maps seem a bit 'off'. Maybe it's the ridiculously large division sizes.

[Platypus]

I'm still peeved that they split Durack. It used to be the biggest electorate in the world (yes, bigger than Alaska)

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm still peeved that they split Durack. It used to be the biggest electorate in the world (yes, bigger than Alaska)

I thought it was Kalgoorlie. And Alaska is nothing compared to Canada's largest riding, Nunavut. Kalgoorlie was still bigger though.

[Hash]

Who did lost 2010 Green voters go for this year? On that line, I understand why a lot of people have come to strongly dislike the Greenies since 2010, but why would people who actually voted for them in 2010 dislike them now, enough to go for other parties?

[morgieb]

Who did lost 2010 Green voters go for this year? On that line, I understand why a lot of people have come to strongly dislike the Greenies since 2010, but why would people who actually voted for them in 2010 dislike them now, enough to go for other parties?

I imagine Palmer would've soaked up some of the protest vote that would usually go to the Greens.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

2010 was the Green's high-water mark, and it was a large protest vote, everything was suggesting that this was NEVER going to be a good election for them, on paper.

Having said that getting Bandt to 43% primary is ASTOUNDING - but their national vote is slightly above their result from 2007. Palmer, as mentioned, was the recipient of the protest vote this year, but he drew from both sides (although from the ALP more, but it varied).

[Smid]

I'm about halfway through a Palmer primary vote map. I'll have it up shortly, but from what I've seen so far, it looks like it will confirm what Polnut was just saying.

[Smid]

2013 Australian Federal Election Results - Palmer Primary Vote
Interim Edition


Bigger map in the Gallery, etc. Roughly an inverse to a typical Greens' strength map... Greens' strength has a central epicentre and radiates to lesser strength further from the core. Palmer strength is weakest in the city centres and inner suburbs, and typically seems to gain strength as it reaches the outer suburbs. This is evident in every state, including Queensland, which has some ridiculously high Palmer vote totals. Within the outer suburbs, there seems to be a slightly stronger result in more blue-collar, Labor seats - it's really slight, though, and I could be imagining it (and there are definitely some exceptions). I suspect it may be have been predominantly a blue collar protest option for typically Labor voters who didn't want to vote Coalition (except in Queensland, which is completely different to everywhere else).

For the record, the only electorate with a Palmer vote of less than 1% was Melbourne. The highest Palmer vote was for Palmer himself, in Fairfax. Even there, he only received 27% of the vote, so just over a quarter. If he is elected, it will be due to Labor Party preferences, and the Labor Party will be responsible for the collective national embarrassment.

[Platypus]

I kind of think Abbott representing us on the world stage is more of an embarrassment than another crazy Queensland independent.

[Smid]

2013 Australian Federal Election - Labor Party Primary Vote Swing
Interim Results

[Smid]

2013 Australian Federal Election - Informal Vote
Interim Results

[Smid]

Didn't do great in my predictions. Excluding the half dozen or so that are still in doubt, it looks like I have 11 wrong - shouldn't have changed my initial gut feel on Durack, O'Connor and Chisholm.

[Platypus]

Glad I'm not the only hack on Victoria then

Where do you think Indi is ending up? The McGowan camp are feeling very confident of absolutely dominating the preferences (80%+) but not at all comfortable with postals. Sound about right to you?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Mirabella's primary is pretty stubborn ...

[joevsimp]

2010 was the Green's high-water mark, and it was a large protest vote, everything was suggesting that this was NEVER going to be a good election for them, on paper.

Having said that getting Bandt to 43% primary is ASTOUNDING - but their national vote is slightly above their result from 2007. Palmer, as mentioned, was the recipient of the protest vote this year, but he drew from both sides (although from the ALP more, but it varied).

something that I've noticed both from 2010 in the UK and from this board in general, is that Green parties in countries that use fptp (or av/irv in this case) are good at targetting and getting people (re)elected despite a bad swing in general

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what's the final tally exactly? The ABC website is stuck on 81-51.

[minionofmidas]

I don't think that's much to do with them being Green Parties. It's more about (at least de facto) Independents not at odds with the seat.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So what's the final tally exactly? The ABC website is stuck on 81-51.

It's looking like 57-89-3-1 (but there's still fluidity) - some electorates still have a lot of counting to do.

[minionofmidas]

So what's the final tally exactly? The ABC website is stuck on 81-51.

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/

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The reason those four seats have no leader is not that they are super-duper-close (unlike the six listed just below) but that the relevant 2pp is not Coalition-ALP and they just haven't counted the actually relevant stuff yet.

Also, see here: http://www.aec.gov.au/FAQs/election_results.htm#when (this "the AEC determines the names of the two candidates expected to come first and second in the election" thingy seems to automatically assume Coalition-ALP except where there is a third party incumbent or Coalition or ALP are not even standing. Hence, no "real" 2pp results on election night for Fairfax or Indi, but for Katter's seat as he is the incumbent.)

[minionofmidas]

Correction: it assumes the same two parties as last time, if available. Hence Batman (where the Liberals are in third place behind Labor and the Greens) is also ALP-Green.

[Platypus]

At the end of Sunday, Labor lead in McEwen by 73 votes, which has every chance of being eroded by postals.

The Liberals lead by 265 in Eden-Monaro, which should raise slightly.

Either way, both seats will be within 1500 votes as an absolute max, I'd suggest.

Indi is close. Mirabella is in the box seat, but she is under the 45% margin that was basically the maximum she could get before McGowan was dead.

Fairfax is also unclear, but Palmer is looking good. Postals may not be strong for him, but there's really no way to know.

Fisher is listed as the AEC as undetermined, because it largely comes down to whether or not the PUP candidate can go above Labor, and then get preferences from them to defeat the LNP's Mal Brough. Currently Labor are ahead of PUP by about 3% on first preferences.

[Hifly]

What do you think will happen in Barton, where Labor lead by only around 60 votes?

[Platypus]

Labor did better on prepoll than the seat as a whole in 2010, but worse on postal. Absentee was 0.01% divergent from the seat as a whole. There were near precisely equal numbers of all three, add in the Labor-friendly couple of hundred provisionals...

Very, very hard to say. But Labor edge if forced to choose.

[RogueBeaver]

Since the other thread is locked, here's a SMH deep-dive inside the Lab campaign.