The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
May 19, 2024, 10:32:58 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)  (Read 147246 times)
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: March 04, 2014, 11:04:54 PM »
« edited: March 04, 2014, 11:06:51 PM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »

Yeah... that scares me with the Senate.

 And we may see a repeat of 2012, where the Democrats got more votes, yet not a majority.

The states that have Senate elections this year are significantly more Republican than the country as a while. Illinois is the only one of the 6 largest Obama states.

And of course the Democrats aren't winning the House, even if they win the popular vote. The gerrymandering is extreme. Maybe they can hope to pick up a few seats where Republicans got too greedy with the gerrymander (Michigan), but they're mostly not competitive.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2014, 11:58:27 PM »
« Edited: June 04, 2014, 12:03:07 AM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »

Looking like Doug Ose will beat Birman in CA-7. Jury's still out on whether Dems advance in CA-25 and CA-31.

Preferably Gomez-Reyes beats Aguilar, but Gooch loses.

Ugh California...

Wait, it gets worse.

Two Republicans lead in the Comptroller's race.

Top 2 sucks bad, but California always looks much more red in the early results.  I'll never forget 8pm PST election day 2000. Bush beating Gore 60-40 while it was immediately called for Gore.

CA-15: real Democrat fighting Republican for 2nd place
DINO Swallwell 49.1%
Democrat Corbett 25.7%
Rep Bussell 25.2%
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2014, 01:42:23 AM »

Alright, time to be serious again.

It's a dogfight between Bussell and Corbett for the second spot. I'm praying Corbett wins -- Swalwell's religion-baiting was absolutely despicable, and I'm ashamed to have ever supported him.

It's amazing that we have a bay area "Democrat" who is so blatantly bigoted. As for second place, that looks close enough it might not be called for a couple of days.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #3 on: June 04, 2014, 03:44:01 AM »

CA-31 is 100% reporting. I'm sure there are a number of uncounted absentees, but it looks like Democrat Aguilar narrowly wins 2nd place in CA-31, avoiding a repeat of 2012. You can see all the close contests in California here.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/close-contests/
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2014, 03:50:17 PM »

R+3 CA-25 just became safe R thanks to the idiotic top two system. Yup, 2 Republicans on the November ballot.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/25/
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2014, 10:04:24 PM »

R+3 CA-25 just became safe R thanks to the idiotic top two system. Yup, 2 Republicans on the November ballot.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/25/

Maybe that's a more democratic system considering that the primary vote was almost 65% Republican-leaning.  

Yesterday was a low turnout election, which heavily favors Republicans. The November electorate will be both more Democratic and more democratic.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2014, 08:57:13 PM »


He should endorse repealing top two instead.  Having a choice between 2 right-wing Republicans and no one else isn't much of a choice.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2014, 10:30:28 PM »

Can we now all agree that Mississippi is a massive Freedom State?

LOL, no.

So, still the only incumbents that lost are Ralph Hall and Eric Cantor. The anti-incumbent movement isn't going to well.

Two incumbents is a big deal if one of them is Majority Leader.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2014, 11:22:05 PM »


And still no votes.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2014, 12:31:05 AM »

Still crappy.

Gov: Incumbent progressive loses badly
HI-01: Good that the total DINO didn't get it
HI-02: Conservadem renominated easily
Senator: Progressive down 2 points
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #10 on: August 10, 2014, 12:39:00 AM »


I don't know much about David Ige, but he seems relatively progressive himself. Although I'm an Abercrombie fan, are there any glaring votes that Ige's made?

(also glorious news on DMK losing)

I don't know about Ige either, but it seems like only progressives get primaried in Hawaii.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2014, 12:54:48 AM »


I don't know much about David Ige, but he seems relatively progressive himself. Although I'm an Abercrombie fan, are there any glaring votes that Ige's made?

(also glorious news on DMK losing)

I don't know about Ige either, but it seems like only progressives get primaried in Hawaii.

This seems to be relatively true. Let's just hope they don't try to take down Hirono.

I mean no one even ran against someone with a more conservative Progressive Punch score than 80% of the Democrats, who represents a navy blue district? Ridiculous. The primary challenges are always from the right in Hawaii. Case got 45% against Akaka.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2014, 01:10:19 AM »
« Edited: August 10, 2014, 01:14:13 AM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »


I would assume there are still a lot more votes. 2006 had 236,321    votes.
Although I suppose turnout could be lower because of Democrats not being as engaged this year, and the storms. But I would still expect around 200k or more (twice as much).
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2014, 01:24:48 AM »

Hanabusa still winning all 4 counties

Hawaii's 4 main counties tend to vote in tandem, but that's still pretty weird with 2 point margin.
Hawaii has a 5th county, Kalawao, which is usually ignored.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2014, 02:03:34 AM »

Schatz now down 11.... votes.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2014, 02:21:23 AM »

The Dem. Primary for Senate...I'm praying to god for a nasty, protracted legal battle between the two. Smear the hell out of whoever makes it out.

Why? Its not like the Republicans have a chance of winning.

Cavasso will improve upon his 21% performance in his 2 previous Senate elections, but LOL.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #16 on: August 10, 2014, 02:47:33 AM »

I'm watching Djou on KITV... he seems so fake to me. Can't wait to see him lose in the General.

Hawaii Republicans seem to keep going with him since he once won some stupid retarded first past the post election with him and 2 Democrats.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #17 on: August 10, 2014, 03:15:30 AM »

Sounds like two precincts in Hawaii county have yet to vote.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #18 on: August 10, 2014, 04:12:52 AM »

It looks like it's all in except the 2 precincts that haven't voted yet.

Schatz has a 1786 vote lead. He also narrowly leads in Hawaii county, where the two outstanding rural precincts are.  While both candidate are going to those precincts tomorrow to campaign, I'm pretty sure he wins.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #19 on: August 10, 2014, 04:46:51 AM »


So if everyone turned out, Hanabusa would need a 22 point lead to flip the race. How likely is that?

There are enough voters that Schatz isn't going to ignore them, but it seems pretty clear he should win.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #20 on: August 10, 2014, 03:01:59 PM »

I feel sorry for Hanabusa. So close but no cigar...

Ige won by 35 points. Not impressive for her.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #21 on: August 10, 2014, 05:15:35 PM »


The northern most precinct is Kalawao County.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good news for Schatz that he won the precincts neighboring the 2 that haven't voted.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2014, 01:32:41 AM »

AOSHQDD @AOSHQDD
#HIsen
first results added into totals
Hanabusa 113628
Schatz 115397
Nothing has nor will change our Sunday call for Schatz.


So Schatz increased his lead from 1635 to 1769.

They say only 8 more votes to count. Schatz wins.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,821


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #23 on: August 20, 2014, 05:00:36 AM »

Alaskan Republicans must really like the name Dan Sullivan.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 10 queries.