if i would have told you the day before the election...

[WalterMitty]

that obama would win va, nc in and ne-02...BUT LOSE mo....would you have posted it in the comedy coldmenine thread?

[Franzl]

Yes, absolutely...

[minionofmidas]

No.

I would have said "not happening" to NE-02... I did say so somewhere round about then, actually... but the remainder was part of my prediction.
You might have gotten yourself goldmined if you'd insisted that Virginia was not at least lean Democrat at that point, though.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I would have called you crazy.

[elcorazon]

that obama would win va, nc in and ne-02...BUT LOSE mo....would you have posted it in the comedy coldmenine thread?

win va was conventional wisdom at that point.

win nc was the favored view, but personally I thought that the polls were off a bit, based on results in 2000, 2004 and my own personal reaction to Helms election in 1984.  But having said that I wouldn't have thought it was outlandish to predict an Obama win there.

MO was  a pure tossup all the way - I was pretty confident it would be a nailbiter.

NE-2 was a wildcard that most just assumed was an Obama pipe dream and no one really focused on because it's only 1 EV.  That's really the only shock among the results you mention and given the relative lack of polling and attention, really not that crazy.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I wouldn't have believed it; however Virginia was widely expected to go Obama at that point. Indiana and NE-02 were the only shockers. Even Nate Silver got them wrong.

[Lief 🗽]

No, not at all. VA was lean Obama, NC, MO and NE-2 were tossups.

[Daniel Z]

that obama would win va, nc in and ne-02...BUT LOSE mo....would you have posted it in the comedy coldmenine thread?

No, I would have thought it unlikely (Especially ne-2), but still in the realm of possibility. Mainly because I was a bit skeptical of Missouri.

[Mint]

that obama would win va, nc in and ne-02...BUT LOSE mo....would you have posted it in the comedy coldmenine thread?

No, I would have thought it unlikely (Especially ne-2), but still in the realm of possibility. Mainly because I was a bit skeptical of Missouri.

^^^

Now if you said he'd win Indiana AND lose Missouri...

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Not in the goldmine, but I'd have disagreed strongly.  Except for VA, of course.

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

I would have believed va, nc & ne-2 but NEVER Indiana. I had scoffed at that until the moment it was called.

[WalterMitty]

did team kerry run any ads in indiana at any point in 2004?

[Hatman 🍁]

Nope. Why am I the only one who thought NC was more likely than MO? I actually had just changed NC to McCain in my predictions the night before (dammit). And, as for NE-2, there was no polling there, so it's impossible to have accurately guessed.

[minionofmidas]

Nope. Why am I the only one who thought NC was more likely than MO? I actually had just changed NC to McCain in my predictions the night before (dammit).

I got those them both right.

I hope. Maybe Missouri flips in the end.

[Gustaf]

Nope. It wasn't what I expected though.

[Lunar]

Nope, I had predicted a narrow win in MO and a narrow loss in NE-2 so it's no surprise that they inversed.

[emailking]

I would have been fine with that prediction. Honestly I don't know why everyone was so shocked about NE-2. Maybe it looked like a pipe dream during the primaries, but it tightened significantly once Obama started competing there. Palin went there...I assume there was some kind of logical basis for that. The night before the election Chuck Todd said it was a "pure tossup."