Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

Updated vote leaders for delegate in some of the CDs:

***
PA-4:
leading candidates are:
Sacco (Trump)
Jansen (Trump)
Scaringi (Trump)

***
PA-6:
Costello (district winner)
Lightcap (Trump)
Buckwalter (Trump)

***
PA-7:
Puppio (district winner)
Willert (district winner)
Miller ??

***
PA-8:
leading candidates are:
Worthington (Trump)
Casper (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)
Loughery (uncommitted, but on Kasich PAC slate)

***
PA-13:
leading candidates are:
Cox (district winner)
Ellis (district winner)
Casper (district winner)

***
PA-15:
leading candidates are:
Heydt ??
Hoffman (Cruz)
Smith (Cruz)

***
PA-18:
leading candidates are:
Means (Cruz)
DePlato (Trump)
Petrarca (Trump)

[Mr. Morden]

With about half the votes in, these are now the leading unbound delegate candidates in every PA district:

PA-1:
Vogler (uncommitted, but will consider district winner)
Hackett (district winner)
Kaufer (considering district winner / Trump)

PA-2:
leading candidates are:
Havey (district winner)
Tucker (uncommitted)
Cohen (uncommitted)

PA-3:
leading candidates are:
English (Kasich)
Yates (uncommitted, but “strongly impressed by Kasich")
Ryan (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)

PA-4:
leading candidates are:
Sacco (Trump)
Jansen (Trump)
Scaringi (Trump)

PA-5:
leading candidates are:
Klein (Trump)
McClure (Trump)
Khare (district winner)

PA-6:
Costello (district winner)
Lightcap (Trump)
Buckwalter (Trump)

PA-7:
Puppio (district winner)
Willert (district winner)
Miller ??

PA-8:
leading candidates are:
Worthington (Trump)
Casper (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)
Loughery (uncommitted, but on Kasich PAC slate)

PA-9:
leading candidates are:
Ward (district winner)
Shuster (uncommitted)
Taylor (Trump)

PA-10:
leading candidates are:
Sides (Trump)
Scavello (district winner)
Pickett (district winner)

PA-11:
leading candidates are:
Morelli (Trump)
McElwee (Trump)
Shecktor (Trump)

PA-12:
leading candidates are:
Steigerwalt (Cruz)
Morrill (Trump)
Majernik (district winner)

PA-13:
leading candidates are:
Cox (district winner)
Ellis (district winner)
Casper (district winner)

PA-14:
Meloy (uncommitted)
Devanney (uncommitted)
Linton (Kasich)

PA-15:
leading candidates are:
Uehlinger (district winner)
Reber (Trump)
Kerwin (Trump)

PA-16:
leading candidates are:
Brubaker (Cruz)
Denlinger (uncommitted)
Dumeyer (district winner)

PA-17:
leading candidates are:
Villano (Trump)
Bonkoski (Trump)
Snover (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)

PA-18:
leading candidates are:
Means (Cruz)
DePlato (Trump)
Petrarca (Trump)

[Mr. Morden]

Erc's summary of the PA CD delegates:

PA TL;DR:

Trump: 20
District Winner: 18
Uncommitted: 12
Cruz: 3
Kasich: 1

Of those "District Winners," Trump will obviously win most of them; PA-7 seems the one he's most likely to lose at the moment.

[Mr. Morden]

With about half the votes in, these are now the leading unbound delegate candidates in every PA district:

PA-1:
Vogler (uncommitted, but will consider district winner)
Hackett (district winner)
Kaufer (considering district winner / Trump)

PA-2:
leading candidates are:
Havey (district winner)
Tucker (uncommitted)
Cohen (uncommitted)

PA-3:
leading candidates are:
English (Kasich)
Yates (uncommitted, but “strongly impressed by Kasich")
Ryan (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)

PA-4:
leading candidates are:
Sacco (Trump)
Jansen (Trump)
Scaringi (Trump)

PA-5:
leading candidates are:
Klein (Trump)
McClure (Trump)
Khare (district winner)

PA-6:
Costello (district winner)
Lightcap (Trump)
Buckwalter (Trump)

PA-7:
Puppio (district winner)
Willert (district winner)
Miller ??

PA-8:
leading candidates are:
Worthington (Trump)
Casper (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)
Loughery (uncommitted, but on Kasich PAC slate)

PA-9:
leading candidates are:
Ward (district winner)
Shuster (uncommitted)
Taylor (Trump)

PA-10:
leading candidates are:
Sides (Trump)
Scavello (district winner)
Pickett (district winner)

PA-11:
leading candidates are:
Morelli (Trump)
McElwee (Trump)
Shecktor (Trump)

PA-12:
leading candidates are:
Steigerwalt (Cruz)
Morrill (Trump)
Majernik (district winner)

PA-13:
leading candidates are:
Cox (district winner)
Ellis (district winner)
Casper (district winner)

PA-14:
Meloy (uncommitted)
Devanney (uncommitted)
Linton (Kasich)

PA-15:
leading candidates are:
Uehlinger (district winner)
Reber (Trump)
Kerwin (Trump)

PA-16:
leading candidates are:
Brubaker (Cruz)
Denlinger (uncommitted)
Dumeyer (district winner)

PA-17:
leading candidates are:
Villano (Trump)
Bonkoski (Trump)
Snover (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)

PA-18:
leading candidates are:
Means (Cruz)
DePlato (Trump)
Petrarca (Trump)

With 95%+ of the votes in, the only revisions to the above are in these two CDs:

PA-6:
Costello (district winner)
Wert (Cruz)
Buckwalter (Trump)

PA-12:
Morrill (Trump)
Steigerwalt (Cruz)
Vasilko (Trump)

[Mr. Morden]

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Given Trump's inability to retain his own delegates, I can't see him picking up the unpledged PA delegates.

So when you say you have him at 1185, you mean 1185 pledged delegates only?  By Erc's #s, there will be ~180 unpledged delegates on the first ballot.  Surely some of them will vote Trump, especially those who've already said they're going to vote for Trump.

I'd agree that there's a good chance that Trump gets less than 1237 pledged delegates, but since he's inevitably going to get the votes of some of those unpledged delegates as well, it's hard to see how he's not currently favored to win on the first ballot.

[Mr. Morden]

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Your two statements contradict each other. If he's under 1237 pledged delegates, he will not be the nominee.

No, that isn't true.  Unpledged delegates also get to vote on the first ballot.  Some of them will vote for Trump.  Maybe not a majority, but some of them.  So he could very well have fewer than 1237 pledged delegates, and still win the nomination on the first ballot if he wins a sufficiently large number of unpledged delegates.

[Mr. Morden]

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He needs to get 1237 pledged delegates on the first ballot. If he doesn't get them he will not be the nominee.

I don't understand why you think that.  Again, a candidate needs 1237 total delegates in order to be nominated on the first ballot.  Total delegates, not pledged delegates.  I guess the exact number of unpledged delegates is still undetermined, because of varying rules from state to state about what happens to delegates pledged to candidates who've dropped out, or candidates like Kasich who don't reach the Rule 40b threshold.  But Erc estimated it at ~180 or so.

So when you say that Trump needs 1237 pledged delegates, that means that you're predicting that Trump will get the votes of zero of the ~180 unpledged delegates?  You think all of them, including those who've already endorsed him, will not vote for him?

[Mr. Morden]

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One, Kasich delegates are not going Trump. Cruz has already secured them. Same with Rubio.

Two, I think that the vast majority of unpledged will go Cruz. Cruz probably already has a plan to win them over. Trump can't keep his own delegates. Why would this change now?

The majority of the unpledged can vote for Cruz, while Trump still wins *some* of them.  He already has endorsements from ~30 from Pennsylvania alone.  Why would all of them now decide not to vote for him?

On the first ballot Trump could, for example, get the votes of 1200 pledged delegates and 40 unpledged delegates.  The majority of unpledged delegates go with Cruz, but with 40 going for Trump, Trump still wins the nomination in that scenario.  When you say that Trump needs 1237 pledged delegates alone, you're saying that Trump will win zero unpledged delegates.  Not just that he'll fail to get a majority of them, but that he'll get zero.  That doesn't make sense to me.

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Well, I agree with that part.  I just think that he can win on the first ballot even if his pledged delegate count is a bit below 1237, because at least *some* of the unpledged delegates will vote for him.

[Mr. Morden]

Updated national popular vote (Kasich finally catches up to Rubio):

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R

Trump 40%
Cruz 27%
Kasich 14%
Rubio 14%
Carson 3%
Bush 1%