Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[windjammer]

I could see Ron Sparks  or even Jim Folsom Jr. beating Roy Moore, especially if 2018 is a Democratic wave.  Walter Maddox might also be able to pull it off, but I don't know enough about him to say for sure.

I'm curious, how do you see a path?

[windjammer]

When I see legit polls showing Moore with a good chance to win, not just make, the primary runoff, I'll get worked up. Until then, meh.

Well, we all know that republicans are going to win this anyway but I'm not particularly sure that Luther Strange would perform better than Moore, as he's literally a little snake establishment who has underperformed elections before (2006 Lt Governor), not a good fit for Alabama considering its Trumpist nature and the recent corruption scandals.

The best candidate of the 3 is definitely Mo Brooks as he's a total racist scumbag having a platform forthe Trump wall and against "war on whites", he would definitely turn up the republican base, and turnout matters the most for special elections.

[windjammer]

Lean Rep

[windjammer]

Chances that Jones beats Moore in the general? I'd say 15% tops.

If Republican turnout is as low as it was in some of the other special elections this year, probably 35% or so. If Republicans actually get their voters out and/or try to nationalize the race, 0%-5%. Lean/Likely R at this point, but I'd be more worried about this seat if Strange were the nominee.

Basically this.

Special election is about turnout, not about "swing voters" who simply don't exist in Alabama lol.

[windjammer]

Moore is leading by 5-10 probably