SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

As to show I'm not pulling this out of thin air:

http://pejl.svt.se/visualisering/politik/partisympatier-over-tid/#party=Alla+partier&indicator=_1829

As you can see, in the autumn of 2010 the age group 18-29 aligned as follows:

Left: 51% (S: 26,3% MP: 17,8% V: 6,9%)
Right: 40,7% (M: 29,0% C: 3,3% FP: 6,2% KD: 2,2%)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Btw, do you have any exit poll numbers for young voters and their support for SD and F! in 2010?

Unfortunately it's no longer possible to view the results from the exit poll on SVT's website, and I can't access the files on the Gothenburg University website, but if I don't remember completely incorrectly SD's support among the 18-29 age group was 7-8% while others had 2-3% (others include both Fi and the Pirates, both stronger among the young than the general public.) 

   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Watch the Alliance finish above Red-Greens tomorrow evening

Don't think it'll happen, but it would be so damn hilarious.

Above Red-Greens or above Red-Greens-Left.  The former is very likely and even expected.  The latter is unlikely and if it did take place it would be quite disruptive relative to expectations.

Well, one could imagine a sort of United Kingdom 1992 situation, where polls showed Labour leading, up until election day although with the gap declining, just to have the Conservatives snatch the victory after all, but that is of course a pretty unlikely scenario, but not out of the realm of possibilities.

It should be noted that in the poll of the day (SKOP) was the gap between the blocs only 3%.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Watch the Alliance finish above Red-Greens tomorrow evening

Don't think it'll happen, but it would be so damn hilarious.

Above Red-Greens or above Red-Greens-Left.  The former is very likely and even expected.  The latter is unlikely and if it did take place it would be quite disruptive relative to expectations.

Well, one could imagine a sort of United Kingdom 1992 situation, where polls showed Labour leading, up until election day although with the gap declining, just to have the Conservatives snatch the victory after all, but that is of course a pretty unlikely scenario, but not out of the realm of possibilities.

It should be noted that in the poll of the day (SKOP) was the gap between the blocs only 3%.

It could happen of course, but unlike the crap British polling industry, Sweden's has actually tended to be pretty good. So I'd be more surprised if your pollsters screwed up that much.

Yeah I don't think they've screwed up either, and would be shocked if we didn't get a somewhat predictable result. I just wanted to point to the possibility. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Come on, we really need those lend votes for FI!

Sure, we need them to end up just around 3,9%.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Final prediction:

M: 23,1%
C: 6,1%
FP: 6,6%
KD: 4,8%

S: 29,8%
V: 6,5%
MP: 8,3%

SD: 10,6%
FI: 3,3%

Alliance: 40,6%
(S)(v)a(mp): 44,6%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Is it true that in Sweden there are piles of ballots in the polling station for each party and you can draw a ballot for the party you are voting for ?

So, basically everyone knows for which party you are voting, depending which ballot you take (unless you take ballots for every party with you into the voting booth) ?

You asked this question four years ago as well Tender, I'm disappointed you do not remember.

The answer is yes and yes. People who want to keep their vote secret bring their own ballot papers or take one from every party.

Isn't this a terrible waste of paper you might ask. Yes it is, but Sweden has a very big forestry and paper industry so see it as one big subsidy every four years.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Word on the street (and by street i mean precinct officers) is that turn-out seems to be higher this year than in 2010. Lines are being reported in polling stations where there's been no lines before, despite the fact that early voting is breaking record numbers once again. Taking this into account, it wouldn't be completely out of question we get 86%-87% turn-out.