The Muslim Vote

[useful idiot]

Do any of you have any hard data on what the Muslim vote was in 2000? Percentages nationally or even perhaps by state?

Thanks

[Alcon]

I know there was an obscure poll on this during the elections - Kerry won heavily.

The problem with broken-down statistics is that there are few states with enough Muslims to have a good count, and beyond Michigan, it would be extremely expensive to poll.

[phk]

Bush won 80% in 2000.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Kerry probably made huge inroads in 2004.  He probably carried 80%.

[True Democrat]

Bush won 80% in 2000.

No he didn't.  I heard Bush won a plurarity like 48-42-10 or something (Nader did very well - he's Lebanese).

[Gustaf]

I believe Bush won the Muslim vote in 2000, social conservativeness plus Jew Lieberman. And he most probably lost it in 2004.

[© tweed]

One of the best ways to measure the swing in the terrorist Muslim vote from 2000 --> 2004 is to look at the voting stats for Dearborn, Michigan, whose population is 30.0% of Arab descent, the highest I have found.

In 2000, Dearborn City was won by Bush with 51.69% of the vote, and Dearborn Heights City was won by Gore with 51.58%.

In 2004, Kerry won Dearborn City with 58.55% and Dearborn Heights City with 56.35% of the vote.

These swings are considerably large, especially when factoring in the Dems performed much worse relative to the GOP in 2004 than 2000.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One of the best ways to measure the swing in the terrorist Muslim vote from 2000 --> 2004 is to look at the voting stats for Dearborn, Michigan, whose population is 30.0% of Arab descent, the highest I have found.

In 2000, Dearborn City was won by Bush with 51.69% of the vote, and Dearborn Heights City was won by Gore with 51.58%.

In 2004, Kerry won Dearborn City with 58.55% and Dearborn Heights City with 56.35% of the vote.

These swings are considerably large, especially when factoring in the Dems performed much worse relative to the GOP in 2004 than 2000.

Even though that area probably has the highest percentage of Muslims in the US, having a lot of Arabs does not mean lots of Muslims. Only 25% of Arab Americans are Muslim. Christian Arab Americans outnumber Muslim Arab Americans.

[phk]

One of the best ways to measure the swing in the terrorist Muslim vote from 2000 --> 2004 is to look at the voting stats for Dearborn, Michigan, whose population is 30.0% of Arab descent, the highest I have found.

In 2000, Dearborn City was won by Bush with 51.69% of the vote, and Dearborn Heights City was won by Gore with 51.58%.

In 2004, Kerry won Dearborn City with 58.55% and Dearborn Heights City with 56.35% of the vote.

These swings are considerably large, especially when factoring in the Dems performed much worse relative to the GOP in 2004 than 2000.

Even though that area probably has the highest percentage of Muslims in the US, having a lot of Arabs does not mean lots of Muslims. Only 25% of Arab Americans are Muslim. Christian Arab Americans outnumber Muslim Arab Americans.

I'm pretty sure that African-American Muslims and South Asian Muslims (Pakistani, Indian, Bangladeshi) outnumber Arab-American Muslims.

[minionofmidas]

Large numbers of Iranians, too. And IIRC the Iranian community in the US (that is, the politically conscious and organized part) is made up mostly of pro-Shah fascistic assholes and their descendants, unlike that in Germany (reduplicate statement in brackets) which is mostly made up of people from the democratic/socialist wing of the revolution... who usually recognize that what Iran has had since Khomeini's death is not good but better than anything that has gone since Mossadegh's death...
Bottomline: I don't think they swung much in 2004.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[phk]

Large numbers of Iranians, too. And IIRC the Iranian community in the US (that is, the politically conscious and organized part) is made up mostly of pro-Shah fascistic assholes and their descendants, unlike that in Germany (reduplicate statement in brackets) which is mostly made up of people from the democratic/socialist wing of the revolution... who usually recognize that what Iran has had since Khomeini's death is not good but better than anything that has gone since Mossadegh's death...
Bottomline: I don't think they swung much in 2004.

A lot of Iranian-Americans that are in the pro-Shah camp don't consider themselves Muslim.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My county isn't colored and we have a lot. Of course very few of them are citizens so that explains it.

[skybridge]

Craig Unger has some data making the case the Muslim vote swung Florida in favor of Bush. I find this questionable, however.

[phk]

Craig Unger has some data making the case the Muslim vote swung Florida in favor of Bush. I find this questionable, however.

Given how close Florida was, anything could have swung it.

[adam]

Craig Unger has some data making the case the Muslim vote swung Florida in favor of Bush. I find this questionable, however.

Given how close Florida was, anything could have swung it.

True, the Nazi vote could have swung Florida in 2000. It's hard to really make a case for the swinging of Florida.

[Republican Michigander]

Dearborn took a big swing from Bush to Kerry in 2004. (Dearborn Heights is mostly white union, although there are some rapidly growing Arab pockets there near the Warrendale/"Copper Corner" end of Rouge Park section of Detroit) Dearborn also has a large White Union population, but I suspect it was the Muslim vote that swung for Kerry, since Bush gained a lot of votes in the "Downriver" section of Southern Wayne County.

I'm not an expert here, but I believe a lot of the Arab Muslims are moving to Dearborn while many of the Arab Christians (Iraqi/Lebanese) are moving out of Dearborn to other areas, especially in Macomb and Oakland County. I'm less sure about that than I am about the vote swing.