The TrumpCare comes back from the dead (...and lives!) thread

[The Other Castro]

Also have these guys failed to realize that Donald Trump is supremely unpopular and thus the law they want to pass needs some popularity in order to, well, pass?

The key factor you have forgotten is that every member of Congress is a sociopath.

[The Other Castro]

18 Republicans are a no. So that's 220, they need 216. I doubt they have 216 votes. They can afford only 22 defections.

18 Nos already? Wow.

[The Other Castro]

What is dead may never die.

[The Other Castro]

They do not have the votes.

[The Other Castro]

Losing Fred Upton is big, but this isn't dead until it's dead. No whip count currently has 23 hard and public Nos, which is what is needed for this to fail.

[The Other Castro]

Losing Fred Upton is big, but this isn't dead until it's dead. No whip count currently has 23 hard and public Nos, which is what is needed for this to fail.

22, with Billy Long (R-Springfield) and a member of the House GOP leadership against it? I mean, it's 90% dead. We'll see, when the vote is tomorrow or whenever. I doubt Ryan lets it go to the floor.

It's only mostly dead, 90% dead is slightly alive. Yeah it's almost definitely not going to pass, and if it did there is 0% chance something remotely resembling it passes the Senate, but it'd be great for it to die right now.

[The Other Castro]

"House Republicans Weigh Another Health Care Amendment"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/house-republicans-health-care-amendment_us_5908e99de4b02655f84197af

[The Other Castro]

They're definitely closer to passing in the House this time, but it could be very close.

[The Other Castro]

I think the tide may have shifted in the House, and opposition has softened. Right now, I think this may actually pass the House.

[The Other Castro]

I think the tide may have shifted in the House, and opposition has softened. Right now, I think this may actually pass the House.

has nothing to do with "tides", moderates are softer than hardcores mostly anyway and the GOP is mostly throwing money at the problem, until they somehow get exactly the number of votes they need.

not going anywhere anyway but will be costly....

Oh yeah by no means am I worried about this bill eventually becoming law, just that its death date may be coming later rather than sooner.

[The Other Castro]

Right now I'm leaning towards this passing with about 20-22 defections. Either way, it's looking uncomfortably close.

[The Other Castro]

Last minute guess: Passes 218-212 (4 vacancies, 1 not voting).

[The Other Castro]

Mike Coffman is a NO, Dave Reichert is a NO, Mark Amodei is a YES.

[The Other Castro]

216 needed to pass, only 21 defections allowed (would have been 22, but one Republican isn't voting due to a family emergency or something).

[The Other Castro]

Republican members of Congress blatantly lying about effects on those with pre-existing conditions right now on the floor.

[The Other Castro]

Last minute changes:

Jaime Herrera Beutler: NO --> Lean NO

Garret Graves: Unlisted --> Lean YES

[The Other Castro]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2017/05/04/the-gops-strange-ugly-strategy-of-rushing-todays-vote-will-backfire-heres-how/?utm_term=.3c5d83e03c4c

[The Other Castro]

Another change to Matt Fuller's whip:

Will Hurd: Unlisted --> Lean Yes

[The Other Castro]

Leigh Ann Caldwell @LACaldwellDC
A Source leaving whip Scalise's office predicts it passes with 217 leaving no margin of error #gophealthcare

[The Other Castro]

Leigh Ann Caldwell @LACaldwellDC
A Source leaving whip Scalise's office predicts it passes with 217 leaving no margin of error #gophealthcare

So it will pass by 1 vote?

That's the plan, since passage with 216 votes makes it so that every Republican cast the "deciding vote".

[The Other Castro]

Quoting Klartext89 in responses kind of defeats the purpose of the ignore button.

[The Other Castro]

Bill that would require lawmakers to be a part of the law passes.

[The Other Castro]

Will Hurd is a NO.

https://twitter.com/TexasTribAbby/status/860193042296393728

[The Other Castro]

Will Hurd is a NO.

https://twitter.com/TexasTribAbby/status/860193042296393728

Does that make 21?

If all the Nos and Lean Nos vote No, yes that's 21.

[The Other Castro]

If there are no other surprises, this will pass 217-213. If there are surprises...

No, it would be 216 to 214 with 21 defections.

238 republicans - 1 not voting - 21 defections = 216 votes YES
193 dems + 21 Rs = 214 votes NO

Yeah I deleted that, and just realized that means either the GOP whip is wrong, or someone on the Lean No or No list is voting Yes.