How Nate Silver Missed Donald Trump

[Torie]

Yes, I know, Lief is going to get really hot and bothered about this article. So be it. The problem is that Silver is using multiple ingredients for his prognostications, rather than just data, just like ordinary mortals do without black boxes. And he seems quite likely to have been wrong. The establishment has proved surprisingly toothless, at least so far. Sure, in the end, events may salvage Silver, but for the moment, he's just been wrong, just like to pick somebody at random, a forumite here who goes by the screen name "Torie."  Even the best of us can be wrong, so be merciful please, with malice towards none, and charity for all. Thank you.

[Torie]

I thought these were the two most interesting quotes:

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If I put them together I can construct a narrative. Early on Trump's name recognition fueled a increase in poll numbers. That in turn led to more media and more poll support in a cycle of positive reinforcement. When the primaries were still months away the party establishment could be down on Trump, but was content to see who would emerge as their preferred candidate.

The establishment presumed that one of the more traditional candidates would be running first or second as the New Year approached. However, January found Trump and Cruz well ahead of the pack. Cruz was the one candidate less acceptable to the establishment than Trump, so by elimination they had to take Trump seriously as a nominee. That recognition by the establishment in turn led to a new round of support as regular Pub voters took a cue from the words of establishment leaders.

Yup, and thus the "playing with fire" strategy, the subject of the other thread I put up. Take Cruz out, and then try to clear the lanes for one candidate to take on Trump one on one, and blast the sh*t out of Trump, and try to tear him to shreds. Using Cruz to take Trump out, might have a greater chance of success, but as you say, that would be like cutting one's head off, to cure a migraine headache.