The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Holmes]

Brown's giving a speech tomorrow in Columbus, attacking Trump and outlining some legislative proposals.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/johnstanton/senate-democrat-to-outline-populist-economic-agenda-to-count?utm_term=.kog55lJz9v&bftw=pol#.mv5llwdxQn

[Holmes]

Brown's giving a speech tomorrow in Columbus, attacking Trump and outlining some legislative proposals.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/johnstanton/senate-democrat-to-outline-populist-economic-agenda-to-count?utm_term=.kog55lJz9v&bftw=pol#.mv5llwdxQn

Interesting.  According to Brown's Twitter feed, his speech will air on Facebook Live at around ~10:30am or so:

https://www.facebook.com/SenatorSherrodBrown/

It's really the first sign from Brown that he's interested, right? I think his decision will ultimately rest on what happens in Ohio in 2018.

[Holmes]

The Brown speech can be anything it needs to be. Right now it can be a re-election speech but a few years from now it can be pointed at to back up his claim that he's been fighting for the working class and talking about these issues throughout his career.

[Holmes]

Article on CNN regarding Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/11/politics/jeff-merkley-2020-plans-president/index.html

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Don't quotes like this seem to indicate that Warren is not planning to run? Merkley and Warren are colleagues and factional allies, and Merkley doesn't strike me as an egomaniac. If he knew she were running he would A) know what's better for the progressive cause and B ) know his chances running against her.

I think so too. I've been getting the sense lately that she's thinking of not running, but maybe that's just me.

[Holmes]

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?

So 38% is the Dem floor because no one -- and I mean no one -- knows who Delaney is. Basically an anyone but Trump (did the poll mention party for these matchups?)

It did mention party, but obviously Delaney would get more than 38% in the GE. My estimate is that Trump would beat Delaney 52%-44% in the NPV.

You don't know that. It would depend on the campaign and also it's 3 years out.

[Holmes]

I agree that Sanders is likely to run now. If you asked me a few months ago, I wouldn't have been so sure.

Don't hink Merkley's a good running mate though. Doesn't really add anything to the ticket at all other than youth, which so many more better prospects also have.