Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Beezer]

Any links to a live stream I can watch at 4pm?

[Cranberry]

Any links to a live stream I can watch at 4pm?

Try the ORF TvThek, I don't know if that works outside of Austria, though.

[Beezer]

Thanks. At least right now it's not telling me that I'm a dirty German who's trying to watch glorious Austrian tv for free (unlike the BBC iPlayer).

[Tender Branson]

I'm back.

The ORF live stream that Cranberry posted will start in ca. 50 minutes and from what I know it also works outside Austria.

Also, turnout looks to be huge. Somewhere between 80-85%.

[DavidB.]

Also, turnout looks to be huge. Somewhere between 80-85%.

That's awesome.

[Tender Branson]

A quick look at the municipal elections, which are also held today, shows that the SPÖ might barely hang on to the mayoral post in the capital Linz (where a big finance scandal additionally drags down the SPÖ, which has been in power forever). But the SPÖ candidate may have to go into a runoff.

Wels is a major battleground between SPÖ and FPÖ. The SPÖ has been in power since WW2 and has won every election by huge margins, but the FPÖ will almost definitely win it today.

In Braunau, long a big SPÖ stronghold, the ÖVP-mayor (who was elected in a stunning upset in a 2011 by-election) is likely to be re-elected. The FPÖ could not even make it into the run-off in Hitler's birth city, because there are 2 FPÖ candidates running there ...

[Tender Branson]

Thanks. At least right now it's not telling me that I'm a dirty German who's trying to watch glorious Austrian tv for free (unlike the BBC iPlayer).

Additionally, you can try this link:

http://www.live-stream.tv/online/fernsehen/deutsch/orf2.html

It has even better HD quality than the ORF page.

[Tender Branson]

1st projection in 15 minutes !

(notice that the FPÖ always seems to overpoll by about 1-2% in the first projection)

[Tender Branson]

Live stream starts.

[Beezer]

So excited...

[DavidB.]

The guy talking about nervosität seems to be quite nervous himself, lol.

[Tender Branson]

The ORF guy says it will be a "remarkable result".

Whatever this means ...

[DavidB.]

Lol, this countdown thing.

[Beezer]

[DavidB.]

Haha, my prediction for the SPÖ was right on the money if this is true. I only didn't hear about the turnout figure, which should be known by now.

[Tender Branson]

Pretty much what the polls said.

But this projection is only based on 11% of the votes counted and the MoE is still +/- 3%.

[DavidB.]

Tender, you said that the figure for the FPÖ will likely be lower than in the exit poll. Why?

[Tender Branson]

Haha, my prediction for the SPÖ was right on the money if this is true. I only didn't hear about the turnout figure, which should be known by now.

The turnout is never part of the projections.

The turnout will only be known if all votes are counted.

[Tender Branson]

Tender, you said that the figure for the FPÖ will likely be lower than in the exit poll. Why?

At least it was like this in previous elections.

But it could be different this time, because the MoE is still high.

[DavidB.]

The turnout will only be known if all votes are counted.

Why? Polling stations should know how many people have voted by now.

[Beezer]

Natur im Garten...WTF?!

[Tender Branson]

The turnout will only be known if all votes are counted.

Why? Polling stations should know how many people have voted by now.

You can look at the turnout by city here:

http://orf.at/wahl/ooe15/#analysis/turnout

Those cities that have already been counted.

[Tender Branson]

Natur im Garten...WTF?!

They will have longer coverage at 5pm ...

[DavidB.]

So it seems like ÖVP and the Greens won't have a majority (27/56 seats in exit poll, 29 needed), even though it will be close. That will make ÖVP-FPÖ more likely, I suppose.

[Tender Branson]

Based on what I see on the results map, the FPÖ is racking up the margins in the Innviertel (as expected), but is below 30% in the Linz-area.

I think the ÖVP got this.