Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[hopper]

Romney aint gonna win based on the sheer demographic mountain he has to climb. We are entering an era of Democratic presidential dominance based solely on the growing number of minority voters. Why do you think Democrats have dominated in most presidential elections since 1992? States that used to be easy GOP pickups are becoming increasingly out of reach because of rising minority populations.

Romney can try to make inroads with these voters, but he's certainly not going to win hispanics, for instance, after his party based their entire election strategy in 2010 on bashing and scapegoating them. And don't try to tell me that there is a difference between legal and illegal hispanics. Even most of the legal hispanics found the attacks on illegal immigration disgusting.

Things will change of course. After these minorities become more assimilated they will begin to split more between the parties, but it's not happening for a while. I wish Romney luck trying to win Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and even Arizona. But I think he's going to hit a wall with these voters that he can't break through.

I think Romney is still going to win Arizona and has a 50/50 shot to take Florida. I agree he will lose CO, NV, and NM.

In 2010 the Republicans still won 38% of the Hispanic Vote. The mistake that was made by Romney was he ran to the far right on the issue of immigration alienating Latino's.

From 1992-2004 the Republicans mainly lost Electoral Votes in the Northeast and Illinois and CA. In 2008 they did lose states that they previously won(easy pick-ups) as you said(NC, IN, VA, and NV.)

[hopper]

Romney aint gonna win based on the sheer demographic mountain he has to climb. We are entering an era of Democratic presidential dominance based solely on the growing number of minority voters. Why do you think Democrats have dominated in most presidential elections since 1992? States that used to be easy GOP pickups are becoming increasingly out of reach because of rising minority populations.

Romney can try to make inroads with these voters, but he's certainly not going to win hispanics, for instance, after his party based their entire election strategy in 2010 on bashing and scapegoating them. And don't try to tell me that there is a difference between legal and illegal hispanics. Even most of the legal hispanics found the attacks on illegal immigration disgusting.

Things will change of course. After these minorities become more assimilated they will begin to split more between the parties, but it's not happening for a while. I wish Romney luck trying to win Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and even Arizona. But I think he's going to hit a wall with these voters that he can't break through.

You forgot to mention 2000 and 2004 when Bush won most of the Hispanic vote. 

Besides, the Hispanic voters are over-estimated since many can't vote since they are not citizens.

No, Bush W. won 40% of the Hispanic Vote in 2000 and 44% of that vote in 2004.

[hopper]

Romney aint gonna win based on the sheer demographic mountain he has to climb. We are entering an era of Democratic presidential dominance based solely on the growing number of minority voters. Why do you think Democrats have dominated in most presidential elections since 1992? States that used to be easy GOP pickups are becoming increasingly out of reach because of rising minority populations.

Romney can try to make inroads with these voters, but he's certainly not going to win hispanics, for instance, after his party based their entire election strategy in 2010 on bashing and scapegoating them. And don't try to tell me that there is a difference between legal and illegal hispanics. Even most of the legal hispanics found the attacks on illegal immigration disgusting.

Things will change of course. After these minorities become more assimilated they will begin to split more between the parties, but it's not happening for a while. I wish Romney luck trying to win Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and even Arizona. But I think he's going to hit a wall with these voters that he can't break through.

You forgot to mention 2000 and 2004 when Bush won most of the Hispanic vote.  

Besides, the Hispanic voters are over-estimated since many can't vote since they are not citizens.

I haven't done an in depth study, but the nation wide Hispanic party-voting percentages may often be skewed by the large numbers of that population living in California and New York and voting somewhat accordingly.  Also Urban districts play a role etc.  

I have a hard time believing that Catholic, intact families, with a work ethic will become a massive monolithic voting block that democrats can take for granted.  Given the Obama administration's hostility to the Catholic church, traditional families, and jobs; I don't think they are the panacea you suggest.  

Also working class Catholic whites are finally fleeing the democrat party that abandoned them over 35 years ago.  I wouldn't ignore that.  Trading OH, PA, MI, WI, and MN for CO, NV, and maybe AZ is a net loss of 48 to 59 EV.            

The only working-class whites who seem to have abandoned the Democratic party since 1996 are southern white (largely Fundamentalist) voters and perhaps the largely-Catholic Cajuns in Louisiana (watch 2012 to be sure).

President Obama has about as traditional a family as is possible allowing for only one variation: it is upscale. Does Sarah Palin show a traditional family? But let us remember that the Republican Party has recently abandoned the educated part of the middle class -- the old bloc of Rockefeller Republicans whom the Tea Party and the Religious Right have largely pushed aside. That might not be as big a bloc of voters as southern white Protestants, but it is strategically located. Reagan won those reliably in the 1980s and Ford got them in 1976; Barack Obama seems to have them now.
Any Presidential election before 1992 says nothing about any beginning in 1992. We have probably seen Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia drift away from the Democrats to the extent that President Obama is more likely to win Texas than any of them.  No, I don't think that President Obama has a good chance of winning Texas; it is just that he is such a poor match for those states that went twice for Clinton in contrast to Texas. 

Those are mainly voters in New Jersey, New York State, Delaware, Michigan, Connecticut and Maine maybe. States that are slightly left of center but not left-left. Vermont used to be a state like that but it went left-left. Maybe include the state of Maryland on that list too. The Republicans did win Maryland in both 1984 and 1988.

[hopper]

Romney aint gonna win based on the sheer demographic mountain he has to climb. We are entering an era of Democratic presidential dominance based solely on the growing number of minority voters. Why do you think Democrats have dominated in most presidential elections since 1992? States that used to be easy GOP pickups are becoming increasingly out of reach because of rising minority populations.

Romney can try to make inroads with these voters, but he's certainly not going to win hispanics, for instance, after his party based their entire election strategy in 2010 on bashing and scapegoating them. And don't try to tell me that there is a difference between legal and illegal hispanics. Even most of the legal hispanics found the attacks on illegal immigration disgusting.

Things will change of course. After these minorities become more assimilated they will begin to split more between the parties, but it's not happening for a while. I wish Romney luck trying to win Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and even Arizona. But I think he's going to hit a wall with these voters that he can't break through.

I think Romney is still going to win Arizona and has a 50/50 shot to take Florida. I agree he will lose CO, NV, and NM.

In 2010 the Republicans still won 38% of the Hispanic Vote. The mistake that was made by Romney was he ran to the far right on the issue of immigration alienating Latino's.

From 1992-2004 the Republicans mainly lost Electoral Votes in the Northeast and Illinois and CA. In 2008 they did lose states that they previously won(easy pick-ups) as you said(NC, IN, VA, and NV.)

Paradoxically the Republican Party has been losing the Hispanic vote as Hispanics have outpaced every other identifiable ethnic group except Asians in joining the middle class. Could it be that the nativist tendencies within the current GOP have suggested that Hispanics aren't welcome in the American middle class? Could it be that the attacks on learning and education have been attacks on the one tool that Hispanics have in avoiding consignment to a permanent underclass

How is the GOP preventing(i.e, Hispanics here legally) from entering the middle class? I don't see that as an issue at all.

Your reading way too much into the education issue by saying the GOP doesn't wantlegal immigrants to be educated properly.

The issue is the GOP base in the deep south doesn't want like giving illegal immigrants amnesty. I do think there is some relevance that the GOP lawmakers on Capitol Hill do like illegal hispanics doing cheap labor though.

[hopper]

Isn't Ohio tied at 49-49% a piece per Nate Silver? What is Ohio still doing in the Ohio column? Its a pure toss-up right now.