Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Aizen]

From now on, if you converse with ghostmonkey, you are retarded. No exceptions.

[Thomas Jackson]

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See that little ignore button up there next to my name? Why don't you press it?

You guys were ganging up on StatesRights. I pointed out that he was right. Someone attacked him with the same "stages of grief" narrative that is plastered all over liberal internet boards. I pointed out that not only is this talking point all over the web, it isn't even new, and has been going on since at least 2004.

If you people don't want to hear the other side of the coin, why not use the ignore feature instead of playing the schoolyard gang-up game?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

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See that little ignore button up there next to my name? Why don't you press it?

This is ghostmonkey's first decent post ever. Incidentally it's also the last I'll ever read.

[Thomas Jackson]

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Wonderful, I invite others to take the same step.

At least you are consistent.

[NOVA Green]

Monday, September 29, 2008
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 42% (nc)

Considering that much of this spread is the result in drop in McCain's support, rather than an improvement, I would expect Obama's lead to narrow slightly before Thursday.

Of course the debates could change this, and Obama could finally cross the crucial 50% mark.

The big wildcard over the next few days is how McCain and Obama respond to the failure of the "bailout package".

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Monday, September 29, 2008
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 42% (nc)

Surprsing; I expect Obama to bounce up tomorrow, given the debate/dying economy.

[NOVA Green]

Any bets on Obama's chances of briefly taking a 10 point lead, once the implications of this start to sink in?

We still haven't heard any real responses from either candidate to date to today's news.

[Eraserhead]

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See that little ignore button up there next to my name? Why don't you press it?

This is ghostmonkey's first decent post ever. Incidentally it's also the last I'll ever read.

Yeah, I've never used it before but I guess there is a first time for everything.

[Lunar]

Economic fears are interesting.  Americans lose faith in the economy EXTREMELY quickly, but they don't gain faith back in the economy anywhere near as fast.  It's pretty well documented that consumer confidence ticks upward a small amount every month.

I disagree with the statement, "As soon as the crisis fades, so does Obama's lead." because I doubt most of the electorate can just flip a switch in 40 days and start thinking about  Iraq and whatnot again.  If the economy recovers fully in the next couple weeks, it's good for McCain, but there will still be a lingering strong dissatisfaction of, and focus on, the economy for many months ahead among a sizable (dare I say, majority?) amount of voters.

That said, 8%= rad.

Since the markets dropped today worse than they did on 9/11, and there are no perfectly timed tax breaks (purely by accident in '01) to arrive right afterwards, I'm not convinced that the economy can convincingly recover itself out of most American's mind by November.


... biggest one day drop in the history of Wall Street.  Nice job Congress.

[??????????]

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

See that little ignore button up there next to my name? Why don't you press it?

You guys were ganging up on StatesRights. I pointed out that he was right. Someone attacked him with the same "stages of grief" narrative that is plastered all over liberal internet boards. I pointed out that not only is this talking point all over the web, it isn't even new, and has been going on since at least 2004.

If you people don't want to hear the other side of the coin, why not use the ignore feature instead of playing the schoolyard gang-up game?

My wife and I have had plenty of experience taking on the local papers. We are well aware of their very liberal slant and left wing bias. Not only that, but we have family members who have been INVOLVED in the media, one that worked for the largest paper in the USA for over thirty years. And when he, an FDR Democrat, tells you that the media is slanted I'd certainly believe him over the socialist retards running around on this board.

[Lunar]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_authority

[??????????]

That's so cute that you have a link for everything. Apparently, to you, you can make no argument without it being "discredited" by some stupid link.

[Lunar]

An effective argument doesn't commit obvious, ridiculous logical fallacies, that's all.  Since I was browsing Wikipedia's list of logical fallacies at the time, the link was way convenient.  To say that you're unable to make an argument without committing a logical fallacy seems a bit overboard, but yo, whatevsky, that's cool.


Btw: Alcon, I don't care 'bout your Gallup-discussing thread

[Kalimantan]

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Obama 49% (-1)
McCain 43% (+1)

This is based on interviewing conducted Sept. 27-29, spanning an intense period of negotiations over an historical financial recovery package in Congress on Friday and Saturday, news of a tentative agreement on the package on Sunday, and then collapse of the bill when it came to the House floor on Monday. It also represents the first report including three full days of tracking following Friday night's presidential debate.

Today's results mark the fourth straight day Obama has held a five percentage point or better lead over McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, and two full weeks since McCain last had any advantage over Obama in national voter preferences. McCain held a slim lead over Obama for several days following the Republican National Convention in early September, but that quickly evaporated with the Wall Street financial crisis that began with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on Sept. 15.

Although support for Obama among national registered voters hit the 50% mark in the past two days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking (he initially attained 50% in early September), he has yet to cross that symbolic threshold. The importance of this, however, is unclear. Gallup's historical trial heat trends show that the winners in 1988, 2000 -- both years with minimal third party candidate support suppressing the vote for the major party candidates -- rarely attained 50% or greater support from registered voters prior to Gallup's final pre-election poll.

Voter support for George W. Bush only once exceeded 50% in his 2004 campaign against John Kerry, that being 53% in mid-September. In 1988, George H.W. Bush reached or surpassed the 50% mark once at the very beginning and then not again until the last two weeks of the campaign

[Eraserhead]

Good news for McCain. He isn't completely dead yet.

[Verily]

FWIW, this is the first time all year at which point all three useful tracking polls agreed with each other exactly on the margin.

[Zarn]

...And it is all 6's.

Battlground is usally decent. Just because it doesn't favor your candidate, it doesn't mean it is inaccurate.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Obama 49% (-1)
McCain 43% (+1)

Very disappointing.

[minionofmidas]

...And it is all 6's.

Battlground is usally decent.

Not when they're weighting and non-weighting like that they aren't. So maybe they were once - but that's not stupidity anymore (which all the pointed-out minor strangenesses in the DKos thingy seem to come down to), that's quite obviously an agenda.

[MODU]

Good news for McCain. He isn't completely dead yet.

"I'm not dead yet.  I think I might go for a walk."

[Verily]

...And it is all 6's.

Battlground is usally decent. Just because it doesn't favor your candidate, it doesn't mean it is inaccurate.

Yes, just because it's oversampling elderly voters extremely doesn't mean it isn't bad...

The fact is, the age gap has been widening at each election. Gore won young voters by only 2 points, barely more than his national margin. So Battleground did just fine. Kerry won young voters by 9 points, so Battleground overestimated Bush by a couple of points, but nothing egregious. Obama is now leading among young voters by as much as 35 points (and on average around 20 points), so clearly Battleground is having serious difficulties. The fact that their flawed model has worked in the past does not mean it should be acceptable as a flawed model, especially when the flaws are being blatantly exposed in the current environment.

[Ronnie]

Obama is running away with this election.

[exopolitician]

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Obama 49% (-1)
McCain 43% (+1)

Very disappointing.

lol? I'll take it.

[Likely Voter]

FWIW, this is the first time all year at which point all three useful tracking polls agreed with each other exactly on the margin.

There may be something to that. Also one issue that must be of concern to McCain is that the number of undecideds seems to be dropping. People are solidifying. After two conventions and one debate...McCain needs something big to turn this thing around. I am surprised he hasn't thrown another hail mary this week...he needs something or he is going to lose big. His only consistent lead since the end of the Primaries was after his convention when he had total control of the airwaves for a week (starting with the Palin pick).

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Obama 49% (-1)
McCain 43% (+1)

Very disappointing.

lol? I'll take it.

I'll take it, but I had hoped he would build on his lead, at least a little bit.