Wasn't this already true in 2020?
Anyways, Trump tends to absolutely crush it with that whole group of voters in the Midwest who are pro-choice but also massively into White grievance politics. Still, I expect there to be a leftwards trend compared to the rest of the country for many of the reasons you stated.
Something that goes understated is Trump's potential gains among non-White rural voters. We hear a lot about non-White urban voters, but there's massive potential upside for Trump with working class rural non-White men in the South and Southwest.
In 2020 most of rural America swung right outside the northeast, albeit by a significantly smaller magnitude than 2016.
Agree with Grievance politics but that’s kind of my point - the type of friends politics has shifted away from rural white grievance politics into something else that’s hard to label.
Your point about nonwhites in rural America is interesting because I think many underestimate just how much of rural America today in 20-40% nonwhite, especially in the southern half of the US.