Missourification of Ohio?

[TJ in Oregon]

Ohio trended left from 2000 to 2004, right from 2004 to 2008, and left from 2008 to 2012. The "Missourification"is a prediction of a future trend and one that may not happen. In the last 16 years, Ohio has oscillated somewhat depending on the candidates and years between Even and R+3.

A "Missourification" may be possible with the right candidate and the right circumstances, but it hasn't happened yet.

[TJ in Oregon]

I'm too young to remember the reasons for Ohio's trends in the Bush years, but 2008 and 2012 are pretty easy to explain.

In 2008, you had an economic collapse, the unpopularity of the Bush years, and the rise of Obama that lead to him thrashing McCain nationwide. Yet, 2008 Obama wasn't a great fit for Ohio against a fairly moderate decorated veteran like McCain. Ohio is more toward the establishment side of things typically (for an example, look at the foreign policy votes of our congressmen in both parties) and while a "change" campaign certainly still won, it resonated less in Ohio than in most of the country.

In 2012, we were coming off the Tea Party rise against Obama and the Republicans nominated Mitt Romney. Ohio is slightly downscale on the economics side of things, which Mittens did not play well to. The Tea Party was also never very powerful in Ohio, so no bounce there either. Mitt did improve a little on McCain's vote totals across the board, but other than the far eastern river counties, the ultra Catholic areas from the War on Women, and rich socially moderate suburbs, there just weren't many Obama '08 voters he managed to woo back. He even lost some in the blue collar parts of the state.