US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[J. J.]

First, you don't have to worry about who lives where; the representative has to only live in the state, not the district.

Second, Muon, you are making CD's 5, 6, 7, 15, and 16, hugely expensive, because they span over several media markets.

[J. J.]

Now, can you divide PA-13 between PA 1, 2, 6, 8 and 15?  Basically slice Montco like a loaf of bread?

Can you, without gutting PA-18, make either PA 4 or 12 a Republican (or more Republican) district?

[J. J.]

First, you don't have to worry about who lives where; the representative has to only live in the state, not the district.

I understand that, but I was responding to other posts that suggested that Holden would go to whichever district included parts of Schuylkill and had the best Dem lean. That's why I suggested he could most easily run in the open, heavily D, Montco district I drew (new CD-12).

There were some comments about wher Fitzpatrick lived as well.  Brady wasn't in CD 1 until the last redistricting.

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That normally serves to help the incumbent, since they generally start with a cash advantage. If the GOP is trying to protect its gains, that actually might be a good strategy.
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The incumbents don't have that kind of money.  In a bad year, where they would be on the defensive, you might be talking about several million per candidate to get on the air.  If you are the RCCC, and you have 2 million to spend in PA, are you going to cut four others out (who could be held) or are you going to spread it around, where it won't be too effectiv?.  Or would you maybe use it the Scranton/Wikes Barre, or Erie, or Johnstown/Altoona media Markets, where it might make a difference in 3 races?

Now, can you divide PA-13 between PA 1, 2, 6, 8 and 15?  Basically slice Montco like a loaf of bread?

I could, but the result is a number of districts that would flip Dem in a year like 2008. To avoid this one has to create at least one hard-D district in the Philly suburbs. The safest course is to create 4 D districts in eastern PA - three in Philly and inner suburbs (basically PA 1, 2, and 13), and another either in the Montco suburbs or in Scranton/Wilkes Barre/Bethlehem. My map is example of the former, but latter is also possible. The best option may depend on what the political trends forecast for the coming decade.

Well, couldn't you put most of the Democrats in CD 1 or 2, and strengthen one or more of those other districts?  You would be eliminating a Democratic district.

I wouldn't care where you'd draw the lines; you'd get one or two districts that would flip in a 2006 or 2008 type year.
 

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I assume that the current PA-12 is the district to be cut since the population changes favor a lost district in the west and that's easier to slice up that PA-4. PA-4 could be made more GOP, or it could be left as a target should it become an open seat. There's a danger to try to get both Critz and Altmire, since both have shown their ability to win in an R-leaning district. I made PA 9 and 18 my strongest R districts to concentrate on eliminating PA 12.

To directly answer your question, I think the answer is yes, though I haven't tried it. PA 18 would wrap around the north side of Pittsburgh, PA 9 would move even more into Westmoreland than my map shows, PA 5 gets Blair, PA 4 would pick up Butler, and PA 3 would go into Clarion and Armstrong.

What I'm looking at is some way to put Critz or Altmire into an incredibly strong GOP district, stronger than PA-4 is today.  And in doing so, not harm Murphy in PA 18.

It would have the effect of eliminating on seat (Schwartz) and giving Critz or Altmire a hugely GOP district.

[J. J.]

I think that Somerset county based district could fairly easily go Democratic.

[J. J.]

Critz would have lost by 8-10 this year had he run in the new Somerset district.  It's 5-6 points more Republican than his district is now, plus it doesn't have his Johnstown base.  What am I missing?  

Fayette, Greene, and those sections of Washington and Westmoreland Counties in the district are heavily Democratic in registration.  In even a neutral year, they will go Democratic.

You could drive PA-4 down the Monogehala and into Fayette and Green Counties and combine it with PA 12.  Think of a J on top of a T.

Murrysville, could go into PA-18, if needed.  The northern tier of Westmoreland, possibly all of Armstrong and Indian Counties would go into PA-4 and that could extend along the Comemagh River into Johnstown.

Hempfield, Unity (part) and South Huntington Townships and Greensburg (and the enclaves) would go into PA-4.  Ligonier would go into PA-9.

Most of Washington Fayette and all of Green would go into PA-4 (with the remainder in PA-14.

PA-18 would skirt Pittsburgh in the north.

(I still think it's better to slice up Montco like a loaf of bread.)

[J. J.]

I can tell you right now that Critz is finished;  PA-12 was an blatant gerrymander for Murtha; the Republicans can easliy just throw in the more conservative parts of Westmoreland County that were meticulously avoided in the hopes of protecting Murtha.

Just a little reminder that Republicans had complete control of the redistricting process. PA-12 was drawn to primary Murtha with fellow Democrat Frank Mascara, who was eliminated, while PA-18 was drawn specifically to elect Tim Murphy, one of the Republicans who drew the map.

PA-12 ended at Mascara's precinct.

PA-4 was specifically drawn for Hart, and you see who is holding it.

If you eliminate PA-12, the question will be, can you keep PA-18 Republican?

[J. J.]

PA-4 was specifically drawn for Hart, and you see who is holding it.

PA-4 was preserved the way it was in the 1990s at Hart's request, which isn't the same thing. She resisted the legislature's wish to make it a safer seat for Republicans because she prized her cross-party appeal and thought it would be an advantage to get her to the Senate after Specter retired in 2010. So it's more marginal than it needed to be, and we got Altmire.

I wonder if it would be possible to do the Murtha/Mascara trick again, this time with Altmire and Critz.

You can put Altmire's home in Doyle's district very easily. But I just played around with the Redistricting App and keeping PA-14 as Pitt based, it's almost impossible to put Beaver Falls/New Castle, Johnstown, and Fayette County in the same district without it making the current PA-12 look graceful. It might be possible to reconfigure PA-14 and PA-12 drastically, but PA-14 is pretty well-packed with Dems as it is and then Murphy is vulnerable.

1.  As noted, Altmire does not have to live in the district.  He must be a resident of the state.

2.  Don't worry about how stuff looks.  Nobody ever has.

You could run PA-14 further south along the Monongehela.  There are two Republican ways around Pittsburgh.  South, the way it is, and North, where PA-4 is.

You could put some of the Republican sections north of Pittsburgh into PA-18, Take in Butler and some parts of the northern counties, and even parts of western Westmoreland and make PA-18 more Republican.

PA-12, NE Allegheny, north Westmoreland and up the Comemaugh (including Derry) to Johnstown, central part of Hempfield (including Greensburg), at its narrowest point.  Then, add in Mt. Pleasant, North and South Huntington, Rostravor, and into Fayette County.

Brittain, I doubt that her "cross county appeal" was the reason. 

1.  There was no way to create a Republican district without crossing county lines.

2.  Her district was pretty much always in Pittsburgh media market.  It wouldn't have made a huge difference.

[J. J.]

Critz would have lost by 8-10 this year had he run in the new Somerset district.  It's 5-6 points more Republican than his district is now, plus it doesn't have his Johnstown base.  What am I missing?  

Fayette, Greene, and those sections of Washington and Westmoreland Counties in the district are heavily Democratic in registration.  In even a neutral year, they will go Democratic.

You could drive PA-4 down the Monogehala and into Fayette and Green Counties and combine it with PA 12.  Think of a J on top of a T.

Murrysville, could go into PA-18, if needed.  The northern tier of Westmoreland, possibly all of Armstrong and Indian Counties would go into PA-4 and that could extend along the Comemagh River into Johnstown.

Hempfield, Unity (part) and South Huntington Townships and Greensburg (and the enclaves) would go into PA-4.  Ligonier would go into PA-9.

Most of Washington Fayette and all of Green would go into PA-4 (with the remainder in PA-14.

PA-18 would skirt Pittsburgh in the north.

(I still think it's better to slice up Montco like a loaf of bread.)

Why do you insist on messing up the quotations like that. Now it looks like I said that stuff about Somerset when a clicking on the link reveals I didn't? It was dpmapper who said that.

Sorry, but I thought is was you.

[J. J.]

1.  As noted, Altmire does not have to live in the district.  He must be a resident of the state.

It's not a legal issue, but it's a good way to cause headaches for the person involved and open them up to attacks in the primary and the general for not living in the district. Pennsylvania has a history of taking this into account, it's why PA-7 reached into Marcus Hook to include Curt Weldon's home.

And Brady didn't live in PA-1 for several years,

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It's not just that it has to look awful, it's that you'd have to resort to single-precinct chains running for 50+ miles to get from Beaver County to Cambria County and back down to southwestern Pennsylvania to both lock up all the Democratic votes and not exceed maximum population. That's simply not going to happen.

You can say no one cares how it looks, but in reality, you'd never see a true monstrosity like this which links New York City to Buffalo in multiple districts. That's not redistricting, it's mapsturbation.




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What I envisioned is dividing Hempfield Township between two congressional districts.  Under the current setup, Hempfield is divided between two congressional districts. 

I'd also call your attention to PA-8.  One Montco part is basically connect to the rest of it by a highway.
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_8th_congressional_district 

The connection in this version of PA-4 has a much greater width than a highway. 

[J. J.]

The connection in this version of PA-4 has a much greater width than a highway. 

Have you been able to use the App successfully? If so, I'd really like to see a map of two districts with ~700,000 people, one that concentrates Dems in Pittsburgh and the river valleys without sloughing off too many Dem precincts to Murphy, and one which links the valley towns both above and below Pittsburgh with Johnstown. That little spur in PA-8 connects towns just a few miles apart. I contend that this can't be done across much greater distances like that between Johnstown and the Ohio border. We are at an impasse until one of us draws a map.

Were is the Application? 

[J. J.]

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html

You need to have Microsoft Silverlight installed, too. It should prompt a download.

It uis not downloading.

[J. J.]

Where does Altmire live?

[J. J.]

Okay, can you run the district across the northern tier of Westmoreland County from McCandless (where my grandmother lived).  Putting Lower Burrell, NK, Derry should make that more Democratic. 

You could use that to shift some slightly Democratic sections from PA-4/12 into PA-9.  You might be able to put some Republican sections of PA-9 into in PA-5.

[J. J.]

I'm not sure it's worth it. My district already includes New Kensington. Lower Burrell is 55% McCain, and Derry is 53% McCain. The only towns along the northern tier of Westmoreland County that voted for Obama are Vandergrift, East Vandergrift, and Avonmore, and some of the precincts that would have to be included are well over 60% McCain. While the same is true in western Washington County, those precincts are less populous and allow for easy access to places like Smith Township, Chartiers Township, and Canonsburg, some of the most Democratic areas of Washington County. Critz lost in the Westmoreland County part of his district, but he carried Greene and Washington Counties. So if the goal is to pack Democrats, I don't see how including northern Westmoreland County will help.

I might not look at the McCain numbers, but maybe the Bush numbers.

I'd like to see if you could boost PA-5 a bit,

[J. J.]

I realize the folly of using Obama numbers, particularly in Western Pennsylvania. I was hoping the Critz numbers would convince you. 47% in Westmoreland County, compared to 53% in Washington and 52% in Greene.

Even so, in 2000 Gore barely broke 50% in the northern tier from Lower Burrell to St. Clair Township. I don't have the Kerry numbers, but I suspect they're worse since he underperformed compared to Gore in Westmoreland County.

I might take another look at PA-5 later tonight.

I really don't care if the Democrats have a PA-14 and PA-4/12 that are uber-Democrat, so long as it is surrounded by a PA-3, PA-5, PA-6, and P-18 that stay Republican on a bad night.   

[J. J.]

Critz might stand a chance in that yellow district. I know he lives in Johnstown but it's never hard to "move".

And he wouldn't have to, since he doesn't have to be a resident.

He could be made a resident of that district.  I think he lives in Westmont.  You could add Conemaugh Township (Somerset County) and either Upper Yoder or Southmont and reach Westmont.  The population change would be 14,000-18,000 from the 2000 Census;  I'd expect a drop with the current numbers.

[J. J.]

Except for PA-7?, it looks okay.

[J. J.]

Except for PA-7?, it looks okay.

From what standpoint, JJ?  As a competent gerrymander? If so, I beg to differ. Surely it doesn't look "OK" to you cartographically does it?

Most of the districts are not too gerrymandered, by PA standards.  Only that one district in Delco is really patched together.