US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Smash255]

First, you don't have to worry about who lives where; the representative has to only live in the state, not the district.

I understand that, but I was responding to other posts that suggested that Holden would go to whichever district included parts of Schuylkill and had the best Dem lean. That's why I suggested he could most easily run in the open, heavily D, Montco district I drew (new CD-12).

There were some comments about wher Fitzpatrick lived as well.  Brady wasn't in CD 1 until the last redistricting.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That normally serves to help the incumbent, since they generally start with a cash advantage. If the GOP is trying to protect its gains, that actually might be a good strategy.

The incumbents don't have that kind of money.  In a bad year, where they would be on the defensive, you might be talking about several million per candidate to get on the air.  If you are the RCCC, and you have 2 million to spend in PA, are you going to cut four others out (who could be held) or are you going to spread it around, where it won't be too effectiv?.  Or would you maybe use it the Scranton/Wikes Barre, or Erie, or Johnstown/Altoona media Markets, where it might make a difference in 3 races?

Now, can you divide PA-13 between PA 1, 2, 6, 8 and 15?  Basically slice Montco like a loaf of bread?

I could, but the result is a number of districts that would flip Dem in a year like 2008. To avoid this one has to create at least one hard-D district in the Philly suburbs. The safest course is to create 4 D districts in eastern PA - three in Philly and inner suburbs (basically PA 1, 2, and 13), and another either in the Montco suburbs or in Scranton/Wilkes Barre/Bethlehem. My map is example of the former, but latter is also possible. The best option may depend on what the political trends forecast for the coming decade.

Well, couldn't you put most of the Democrats in CD 1 or 2, and strengthen one or more of those other districts?  You would be eliminating a Democratic district.

I wouldn't care where you'd draw the lines; you'd get one or two districts that would flip in a 2006 or 2008 type year.
 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I assume that the current PA-12 is the district to be cut since the population changes favor a lost district in the west and that's easier to slice up that PA-4. PA-4 could be made more GOP, or it could be left as a target should it become an open seat. There's a danger to try to get both Critz and Altmire, since both have shown their ability to win in an R-leaning district. I made PA 9 and 18 my strongest R districts to concentrate on eliminating PA 12.

To directly answer your question, I think the answer is yes, though I haven't tried it. PA 18 would wrap around the north side of Pittsburgh, PA 9 would move even more into Westmoreland than my map shows, PA 5 gets Blair, PA 4 would pick up Butler, and PA 3 would go into Clarion and Armstrong.

What I'm looking at is some way to put Critz or Altmire into an incredibly strong GOP district, stronger than PA-4 is today.  And in doing so, not harm Murphy in PA 18.

It would have the effect of eliminating on seat (Schwartz) and giving Critz or Altmire a hugely GOP district.

[/quote]


Trying to eliminate Schwartz would likely backfire in a Dem year.  It would take away how much help you could give to the 6th, 7th and 8th.   If anything I think it would make sense for the GOP to make the 13th a bit more Democratic, push the 1st a bit further into Delaware County take some more Democratic areas from the 7th, and trying to sure up the 6th and 8th a bit more to give them more cushion to withstand a wave.   If they try to eliminate Schwartz they lesson how much they could help out the 6th, 7th and 8th and could get lose all three of them in a wave.  Hell if the GOP nominates Palin, the SE is a bloodbath.