NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Keystone Phil]

Just to make sure the record is clear, Pat Toomey is now at 52% of the vote to Sestak's 48% - http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=39&OfficeID=2

What happened with Westmoreland?

Westmoreland County

Candidate Votes Percent
SESTAK, JOE (DEM)  
 8,338 9.9%
TOOMEY, PAT (REP)  
 76,002 90.1%

Hahaha, as Republican as Westmoreland county might be trending, we obviously didn't hit 90% there. I'm guessing there was a glitch. This would explain what I didn't notice before: Sestak's overall vote total dropped so Toomey might not really be at 52%.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Just to make sure the record is clear, Pat Toomey is now at 52% of the vote to Sestak's 48% - http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=39&OfficeID=2

What happened with Westmoreland?

Westmoreland County

Candidate Votes Percent
SESTAK, JOE (DEM)  
 8,338 9.9%
TOOMEY, PAT (REP)  
 76,002 90.1%

Hahaha, as Republican as Westmoreland county might be trending, we obviously didn't hit 90% there. I'm guessing there was a glitch. This would explain what I didn't notice before: Sestak's overall vote total dropped so Toomey might not really be at 52%.

Toomey had 61% in Westmoreland, the last I checked.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Current Atlas info

Pat Toomey Republican 73,265 60.91%
 Joe Sestak Democratic 47,016 39.09%

So add 38,000 to Sestaks

That gives you 48.9% for Sestak and 51.1% for Toomey. 2.2% margin.

[Keystone Phil]

I checked Westmoreland county's count on their website. Toomey's lead increased but by few tenths of a percent or so, picking up about 2,800 votes. I have no idea what they were doing at the Department of State.

I'm checking some of the county results and it looks like Toomey is picking up votes but I'm not sure that he'll hit 52%.  

[Keystone Phil]

Ok, here's what they did: for whatever reason, they took 40,000 votes from Sestak in Westmoreland county. Add those 40,000 back to his total and he's up to 1,930,615 to Toomey's 2,012,686.

I went through some other counties and noticed the absentee and provisional ballots were counted. I don't think this is the case everywhere though because when you look at the new numbers, Toomey only picked up about 12,000 votes while Sestak picked up about 9,000. There were at least 66,000 absentee ballots returned as of October 20th. They are obviously going to break strongly in Toomey's favor (as of October 20th, 57% of returned ballots were from Republicans, 37% were from Democrats and 6% were from all others).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

1.  What House candidate (and name the district and number of votes) corralled the largest number of votes? Jim Sensenbrenner in WI-05 got over 227,000 votes.

2.  What (at this point) is the narrowest margin of victory in a House race? - NY-01, where Bishop is currently up by 200-ish votes.

3.  What is the latest tally for H of R popular votes, nationwide, by party? - I have no idea.

4.  What was the most surprising Republican victory in the H of R (opinion)? - Michael Grimm in NY-13. Even the ones that weren't on my list (IL-08, NY-25, TX-27) weren't as surprising as this one.

5.  What was the most surprising Democratic victory in the H of R (opinion)? - Probably Jim Costa in CA-20 or Kurt Schrader in OR-05, as SUSA said they were both going down by 10 points.

6.  What was the most surprising Republican victory in the Senate (opinion)? - I guess Lisa Murkowski, I figured Miller would win.

7.  What was the most surprising Democratic victory in the Senate (opinion)? - Harry Reid and Michael Bennet were both surprises to me, those are the only ones I got wrong on the Dem side.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

McNerney's lead has gone up to about 2,500 votes. There's little reason for this one not to be called at this point.

[Lunar]

So California experienced a wave election and 0 seats changed hands?

[ag]

So California experienced a wave election and 0 seats changed hands?

Dems actually picked up the governorship and a seat in the state legislature, I believe, but that's pretty much it )) Simply put: California didn't experience a wave election.

[Sam Spade]

So California experienced a wave election and 0 seats changed hands?

Dems actually picked up the governorship and a seat in the state legislature, I believe, but that's pretty much it )) Simply put: California didn't experience a wave election.

Just FYI, in the national races (Senate and House), the swing was roughly 1/2 to 2/3rds (more towards the 1/2 level) of the national swing from 2008 to 2010.  That's not enough to change much based on the prior margins.  Same thing occurred in New England (outside NH, where swings were greater than the national swing)

[ag]

So California experienced a wave election and 0 seats changed hands?

Dems actually picked up the governorship and a seat in the state legislature, I believe, but that's pretty much it )) Simply put: California didn't experience a wave election.

Just FYI, in the national races (Senate and House), the swing was roughly 1/2 to 2/3rds (more towards the 1/2 level) of the national swing from 2008 to 2010.  That's not enough to change much based on the prior margins.  Same thing occurred in New England (outside NH, where swings were greater than the national swing)

I know, I know )) But it's not a wave - and it's not enough to shift anything in areas so dominated by the Dems.

[Torie]

California just doesn't have enough blue collar Catholic Anglos. They were the group that swung, and swung hard, against the Dems this year. Joe Biden was chatting about that. As someone noted in a post, the candidate the Dems fear most is Christie.

[Niemeyerite]

I loved that wave in california. proably in 2012 we could actually pick up some republican seats in the house.

[Sbane]

Michael Barone's ethno-geographic take on the mid-term election results:
In 2010 sweep, even the Finns voted Republican

Once he gets down to the ethnic part of it, his analysis stinks. Hispanics voting only "narrowly" Democratic in Texas? Try looking at the gubernatorial results again. Hispanic turnout just sucks in off years, so they got outvoted in seats that are drawn to only just barely favor their preferred candidates. Finns "voted Republican"? Look at the county breakdown of MN-08. Hint: The Finnish areas voted for Oberstar overwhelmingly, as usual. But, again, they were outvoted.

His analysis is like looking at Sanford Bishop's seat and wondering why blacks nearly voted for a Republican.

Why is Barone held in such high regard? Recently at least he always seems to be wrong, or makes up things to suit his partisan fantasies. I also remember he had a horrible, horrible analysis of the Clinton-Obama primary results.

[Sbane]

California just doesn't have enough blue collar Catholic Anglos. They were the group that swung, and swung hard, against the Dems this year. Joe Biden was chatting about that. As someone noted in a post, the candidate the Dems fear most is Christie.

The problem for the Republicans in California, and this was especially true for the statewide races, was that the few blue collar whites left in the state didn't swing hard Republican. Republicans experienced a nice wave among the upper middle class, as results from OC make quite clear. But the swing the Republicans needed amongst blue collar folks, that happened basically everywhere in the country, just didn't occur here.

 And you can't blame it entirely on demographic changes either. Look at the Central Valley results for Brown. Obviously he didn't do that well just due to the Hispanic vote (who voted more heavily for Boxer according to exit polls). So Brown must have done quite well amongst lower income whites in this state, while Whitman did better amongst minorities. And she could have done even better if it wasn't for the illegal housekeeper controversy. In fact if minorities voted for Brown at the same rate as Boxer, he would have won by about 15-16 points. But why didn't Whitman do better amongst those blue collar whites in the Central Valley and the IE? I understand why she did better with minorities (because she actually asked for their vote), but what happened with the blue collar white vote? That is what I find most surprising about this election.

[tpfkaw]

California just doesn't have enough blue collar Catholic Anglos. They were the group that swung, and swung hard, against the Dems this year. Joe Biden was chatting about that. As someone noted in a post, the candidate the Dems fear most is Christie.

Which is why Republicans were swept into unprecedented victories here in Massachusetts.

(Granted, that did happen in the Senate special, but certainly not in the general).

[cinyc]

Michael Barone's ethno-geographic take on the mid-term election results:
In 2010 sweep, even the Finns voted Republican

Once he gets down to the ethnic part of it, his analysis stinks. Hispanics voting only "narrowly" Democratic in Texas? Try looking at the gubernatorial results again. Hispanic turnout just sucks in off years, so they got outvoted in seats that are drawn to only just barely favor their preferred candidates. Finns "voted Republican"? Look at the county breakdown of MN-08. Hint: The Finnish areas voted for Oberstar overwhelmingly, as usual. But, again, they were outvoted.

His analysis is like looking at Sanford Bishop's seat and wondering why blacks nearly voted for a Republican.

While it is true that many of the most Finnish counties in the Lake Superior CDs still went Democratic, the Democrats' overall margin was down from Obama's in 2008.  For example, in Minnesota, Cook County voted 60-37 for Obama but only 55-40 for Oberstar; Lake County 60-38 for Obama and only 55-42 for Oberstar; Saint Louis County 65-33 for Obama and 57-40 Oberstar; and Carlton County 62-36 Obama and 54-43 Oberstar. 

At least in the current draft of the article, Barone said Texas Hispanics voted "mildly" Democratic, not "narrowly" Democratic.  Mildly is in the eye of the beholder - but according to the Texas Gubernatorial Exit Poll, Texas Hispanics voted 61-38 for Democrat White.  In comparison, African-American Texans voted 88-11% for the Democrat, and Hispanic Nevadans voted 69-30% for Harry Reid.  Moreover, White's support among male Texas Hispanics was under 60%, at 58-41%.

[Torie]

You know, I am old enough to remember when Barone was a Democrat. Yes, he was. He clearly isn't anymore:

"Republican gains in state legislatures were even more impressive. They will control the redistricting process in four of the five states in this region. The exception is Illinois, where Rod Blagojevich's successor as governor, Pat Quinn, held on by a few thousand votes -- helped perhaps by the refusal of some Democratic county clerks not to send out military ballots in the time required by federal law. They did manage to send unrequested ballots to inmates of the Cook County Jail, though."

Ouch!  Punish them, and then punish them some more, Michael.  No, I don't think whatever games were played disenfranchising our military would have put Brady over the top.  What sank Brady in the end, is that he lost the Franzl vote, as it were. I wonder if I would have voted for him if I lived in Illinois. Probably. I am down on the Dems this year. They need to be punished.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I loved that wave in california. proably in 2012 we could actually pick up some republican seats in the house.

     Given the evident demise of the incumbent-protection gerrymander, it would be almost impossible for Democrats to not pick up Republican seats in California next time around.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

California just doesn't have enough blue collar Catholic Anglos. They were the group that swung, and swung hard, against the Dems this year. Joe Biden was chatting about that. As someone noted in a post, the candidate the Dems fear most is Christie.

Which is why Republicans were swept into unprecedented victories here in Massachusetts.

(Granted, that did happen in the Senate special, but certainly not in the general).

Aren't most Catholics in MA Irish? Though I don't know where there are that many blue-collar Catholic Anglos. Probably more of a swing among Catholics of German descent in the midwest.

[ag]

California just doesn't have enough blue collar Catholic Anglos. They were the group that swung, and swung hard, against the Dems this year. Joe Biden was chatting about that. As someone noted in a post, the candidate the Dems fear most is Christie.

Which is why Republicans were swept into unprecedented victories here in Massachusetts.

(Granted, that did happen in the Senate special, but certainly not in the general).

Aren't most Catholics in MA Irish? Though I don't know where there are that many blue-collar Catholic Anglos. Probably more of a swing among Catholics of German descent in the midwest.

For a Hispanic a German is an Anglo.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Jerry McNerney's been declared the winner of CA-11, so it's just NY-01 now.

So California experienced a wave election and 0 seats changed hands?

Hell, in the last four cycles, only CA-11 has changed hands. That's one hell of an incumbent protection map.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why is Barone held in such high regard?

It's because he used to be the best, or at least close to it. Not a David Butler or anything, but someone who turned out solid, respectable analytical work, and that's always been too rare in the U.S. His decline into intellectual dishonesty has been pretty depressing.

[Torie]

Why is Barone held in such high regard?

It's because he used to be the best, or at least close to it. Not a David Butler or anything, but someone who turned out solid, respectable analytical work, and that's always been too rare in the U.S. His decline into intellectual dishonesty has been pretty depressing.

He is still very knowledgeable, but you are right. He lets his biases color his judgment, and cloud his insight, as if his vision went from near 20-20 to something unfortunately closer to what mine was prior to my Lasek surgery. That is one thing I try very hard not to do, because I am an even more opinionated SOB than he is. Discipline, discipline!  What would we do without it?

Anyway, I have always been fascinated by ethnic politics since I was knee high from a grasshopper, and his Almanac was just such a joy to read in that regard. I learned just so much, far more than in an ethnic politics class I took at the University of Chicago.  By the way, guess who came to speak to us in that class.  Yes, you guessed, Tony Benn. I enjoyed watching him squirm when a guy in our class with an Irish accent asked him about Northern Ireland. The first thing Tony asked him was where he was from, and then he weaved and dodged.

My professor's specialty by the way was British politics (he said the Tories were unadulterated slime, but we got along famously anyway), so thus his pull in getting Tony to come. I wrote a paper looking carefully at constituency returns, to measure the white Enoch Powell backlash to persons of color showing up in their neighborhoods. And yes, the Wolverhampton zone was where it was most seismic. I got an A+ on the paper, and that was without even doing a regression analysis! In my defense 1) I didn't know then what a regression analysis really was back then, except as some murky concept, and 2) it was a long time before the age of PC's and excel.

[Torie]

California just doesn't have enough blue collar Catholic Anglos. They were the group that swung, and swung hard, against the Dems this year. Joe Biden was chatting about that. As someone noted in a post, the candidate the Dems fear most is Christie.

Which is why Republicans were swept into unprecedented victories here in Massachusetts.

(Granted, that did happen in the Senate special, but certainly not in the general).

Aren't most Catholics in MA Irish? Though I don't know where there are that many blue-collar Catholic Anglos. Probably more of a swing among Catholics of German descent in the midwest.

For better or worse, we here in CA at least, use the term "Anglo" to refer to those who are not Hispanic, Asian or black. And that is how I use the term - and for no other purpose.  I guess part of it is to use the term "white," in the context of excluding Hispanics, just rubs me the wrong way. Indeed, I find it almost offensive for some reason. Thus I embraced the term.