NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Seems Labrador is leading Minnick by 8%.

[Associate Justice PiT]

    Seems Labrador is leading Minnick by 8%.

And the bulk of what is left is in Labrador country in Ada County. This one is over.

     ID-01 was a seat that only fell to begin with by a combination of a weak incumbent, a strong challenger, & a strong tide against the incumbent's party. The Democrats probably won't see it again for decades.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I am ever so slightly amused by the Democrats pulling out every close race & retaining a majority of U.S. House seats in North Carolina of all places.

[Associate Justice PiT]

And there goes Minnick. Took NYT long enough to call it.

Wasn't there a thread on here not too long ago about Minnick being unbeatable, even though he was sticking to his pro-abortion beliefs? Or am I thinking of someone else?

Not quite certain. Still, he was assumed to be unbeatable nonetheless - he had a 15% lead in almost every poll until now.

Labrador's won it by about 8%, too.

     M-D released a poll showing him up by only 3%. That was our first real clue of trouble for Minnick.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Yes, which is where this is going.   

I meant "only the aftermath". (Nah, seriously. He expect me to even read an 80 page thread that I haven't read yet? The only reason I came here was my thread was missing and this one was my best bet as to where it might have gone.)

     Probably you are supposed to pretend the first 80 or so pages don't exist.

[Associate Justice PiT]

NY-01 isn't over yet:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7970/ny01-altschuler-says-he-has-the-lead-after-recanvass

Ughhhhhhhh

Having read the article, it looks pretty over to me. The ball didn't move much.

Over, meaning that Bishop lost?  Because that's what it looks like.

Leaving NY with a 7 seat loss?  Ouch, especially with such domination by Democrats at the statewide and statewide federal level

     As I said elsewhere, Tuesday mostly wasn't that bad for the Democrats in their stronghold states. Losing so many House seats in New York is quite shocking.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Who will win the remaining house races?  I have a fairly good idea about KY-06, CA-08, and NY-01, but I'm not sure about the rest...

I'm fairly excited that Altschuler might win -- another Jewish Republican in congress sounds great!

Well, tell us what's your idea of who won in CA-08. Was it John Dennis? 

     Clearly a recount would overturn Pelosi's 65% lead.

[Associate Justice PiT]

In CA-11, Harmer had a very rough day yesterday, as votes came in from Alameda, replicating its earlier swing to McNerney plus a bit. Harmer will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat in San Joaquin, the one place where he won, by having the late absentees and provisionals swing to him by perhaps 6%, plus have a turnout that matches the balance of the district with its late reporting, to get back to even.. That is highly unlikely. Harmer is really on the ropes now.

   Alameda               11/9/2010   
57.32%   15688   16086   398   59.49%   21024   4938   59.96%
42.68%   11679   11950   271   40.51%   15247   3297   40.04%
14.65%  27367  28036   669   18.98%   36271   8235   19.93%   5.28%   Dem Gain

So after three consecutive wave elections, only one of California's seats changed hands when McNerney defeated Pombo in 2006.
Whoever gerrymandered the state did a spectacular job.

Compare the 90s:

1992 30 D, 22 R
1994 27 D, 25 R
1995 26 D, 26 R (by-election)
1996 29 D, 23 R
1998 28 D, 24 R (three seats changed hands, two gains one way, one the other)
2000 32 D, 20 R, which (plus a new, democratic seat) is the distribution set into stone by the redistricting.
Although, compared to the size of the 94 wave and the size of the state, that's less-than-impressive movement. A lot of the state simply is safe for one party or the other.

Also, have a look at Washington, with its nonpartisan redistricting:
1992 8 D, 1 R
1994 7 R, 2 D
1996 6 R, 3 D
1998 5 D, 4 R
2000 6 D, 3 R
and no change since. The 2000's waves just weren't that big on the west coast.

     I suspect that the political landscape on the West Coast has solidified to an extent not seen in most other parts of the country. Who knows how long that will last.

[Associate Justice PiT]

If Cooley ends up losing by a tiny margin, and since Mcnerney has more or less held on in his district, this election cycle will have been awesome.

But what chance is there really of Cooley losing? He is still ahead by 20,000 votes, and that margin is going to be hard to whittle down. She might be able to get it down below 10,000 but obviously that is not enough. The one statewide race where I actually cared whether the Democrat won, the Republican wins.

     Yeah, Harris was probably the only Democrat I actually wanted to see win in California. Not that I voted for her anyway.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I loved that wave in california. proably in 2012 we could actually pick up some republican seats in the house.

     Given the evident demise of the incumbent-protection gerrymander, it would be almost impossible for Democrats to not pick up Republican seats in California next time around.