What is Bernie's worst swing state?

[Jeppe]

I can't see any Hillary voters fleeing him. I guess NC or GA cause of the rural gun totin' Republicans.

many in the pro Bernie crowd(which I am not in) state that his populist message is actually appealing to rural folk, which is what would push him over the edge. In the primary this was certainly true, his weak position on gun control helps.

Yeah, which is why he does better in the rural north, and is a wash in the rural south.

He was a wash in the rural South because the Southern primaries are so overwhelmingly Black.

i believe he won the black vote in milwaukee

Hillary won Milwaukee county, and I doubt she did it through overwhelming strength with white voters.

[Jeppe]

I can't see any Hillary voters fleeing him. I guess NC or GA cause of the rural gun totin' Republicans.

many in the pro Bernie crowd(which I am not in) state that his populist message is actually appealing to rural folk, which is what would push him over the edge. In the primary this was certainly true, his weak position on gun control helps.

Yeah, which is why he does better in the rural north, and is a wash in the rural south.

He was a wash in the rural South because the Southern primaries are so overwhelmingly Black.

   

i believe he won the black vote in milwaukee

Hillary won Milwaukee county, and I doubt she did it through overwhelming strength with white voters.

surprisingly,it seems as though it may have been. According to the exit polls i am looking at, she won the white vote by 15 points, while Bernie won the black vote by 2

If she won the white vote, wouldn't she have sweeped the rest of Wisconsin, where there a bunch of counties with a 90%+ white population? I doubt they released exit polls for a single county in a primary. Milwaukee county is the only county in Wisconsin with a sizable black population, and that's also the only one that Hillary won.

[Jeppe]

I think we've decided Florida would be worse swing state, but I also see him doing poorly in Nevada. I don't think the Hispanic population would be as likely to vote for him as they did for Hillary, and with a far left candidate like Sanders most moderates in Nevada who voted for Hillary would likely swing to Trump or a third party candidate. I might be going a little far with this one, but I can see Delaware being a potentially competitive state. He lost the primary by a huge margin and Delaware tends to favor moderate Democrats, and would be really turned off by Sanders.

Delaware has a sizable black population and turnout amongst them would probably fall even more with Bernie instead of Hillary on the ticket. That's also why I have a hard time buying the argument that Bernie would've done a lot better in the Rust Belt. Does Bernie really make up enough votes in the white working class counties to offset turnout issues in places like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee?

Bernie had a really tough time connecting to African-American voters because he kept connecting racial inequality to economic inequality, and I can't imagine him changing his rhetoric in a general election for black voters.