LA-Sen JMC Analyisis (Fleming Internal): Boustany and Campbell tied, Fleming 3rd

[Heisenberg]

This poll shows an extremely competitive jungle primary.

Charles Boustany 15%
Foster Campbell 15%
John Fleming 14%
Caroline Fayard 12%
John Neely Kennedy 11%
Rob Maness 4%
David Duke 3%
Other 1%
Undecided 25%

Full results here

[Heisenberg]

I hope Fleming just comes to his senses and drops out. It would be good for Republicans.

[Heisenberg]

Ugh, looks like this race is a Tossup.

I hope Fleming just comes to his senses and drops out. It would be good for Republicans.

Tossuo? More like Likely R. Probably becomes near Safe R in a D vs R runoff, unless Duke or co. manages to pull through. I won't say completely safe because it's Louisiana.

There's a real chance of a D vs. D runoff happening here. Don't underestimate how incompetent the LA GOP is.

A real chance, sure, but I wouldn't call the race a tossup quite yet.

Both Democrats are very good campaigners, pretty moderate (like JBE), and overall good recruits. Duke would lose the runoff to either, Maness would be the underdog (unless it decides control, in which he'd be favored), and Fleming would keep it competitive. Kennedy or Boustany would make it Likely R.

[Heisenberg]

Ugh, looks like this race is a Tossup.

I hope Fleming just comes to his senses and drops out. It would be good for Republicans.

Tossuo? More like Likely R. Probably becomes near Safe R in a D vs R runoff, unless Duke or co. manages to pull through. I won't say completely safe because it's Louisiana.

There's a real chance of a D vs. D runoff happening here. Don't underestimate how incompetent the LA GOP is.

A real chance, sure, but I wouldn't call the race a tossup quite yet.

Both Democrats are very good campaigners, pretty moderate (like JBE), and overall good recruits. Duke would lose the runoff to either, Maness would be the underdog (unless it decides control, in which he'd be favored), and Fleming would keep it competitive. Kennedy or Boustany would make it Likely R.

Also keep in mind that the GOP sucks at winning open seats in red states. If Hoeven and Thune had retired this year, those states would be pure Tossups if not Lean D already.

They would be tossups. I don't know what Missouri, Montana, and the Dakotas' obsession with liberal Senators is, but the GOP does have a problem with those states. The GOP does not have another Rounds/Thune-type figure in South Dakota, and Democrats can put up Herseth-Sandlin, Brendan Johnson, or even a backbencher, as retail politics work there. Same thing in its neighbor up north.

[Heisenberg]

Senator Yankee, (not posting quote since it got long), Rounds has apparently recovered his popularity, he is one of the top 10 most popular Senators according to a new poll (but less popular than Thune). And he still won a majority in 2014, and would have gotten more if Pressler (I), who took votes from both him and Weiland, were not running.

And I doubt Fleming is really surging (too much), this is his internal. He isn't even a good runoff candidate, he's the Tea Party candidate. I also agree with the consensus that Kennedy is doing great because of his name recognition, he has been slipping lately. I bet he'll be remembered as "long-time treasurer and perennial Senate candidate" when his career ends.

[Heisenberg]

Thanks for the analysis, Senator Yankee. I feel like a Tea Party Republican is the weakest type against Fayard or Campbell, but I guess I'm worrying too much about that seat (though a D vs. D runoff is still not quite out of the question yet).