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Pretty remarkable how the economy’s eulogy has been written so many times over the last few years, only for it to continue to defy expectations.

[Meanwhile, the losses Ukraine is suffering on the Kharkiv front are completely unsustainable, and they're defense.]

Washington Post: Russia has gained more land in one month (April to May 2024), than Ukraine ever did during it's counteroffensive (June to December 2023)

The amount of territory Russia has occupied over the last several weeks is about as large as the territory Ukraine retook during its lackluster spring counteroffensive in 2023.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/russia-ukraine-front-line-gains/

Even though Russian sources have said this week that their Troops may have been slowed down by UAF reinforcement, footage clearly indicates that Ukraine is unable to put together a competent defense along the Kharkiv directions, and they expect another spearhead into Sumy.  Faster Russian gains along the entire front is expected at this point, and mappers can't keep up with the changes that occurred in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia.  I haven't seen any consistent images or videos of Ukraine inflicting heavy losses on Russia.  None.  I don't even know if they can do it anymore. Meanwhile, the losses Ukraine is suffering on the Kharkiv front are completely unsustainable, and they're defense. They literally cannot move armored vehicles, tanks, or equipment into areas without it getting creamed by drones, planes, or missiles.  They can't even place artillery or anti-aircraft systems outside of Kharkiv City.

Russia has Ukraine on the Ropes.  It's not hyperbole.  It's reality.  They just need one more spearhead through/towards Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, or Velyka to achieve victory in Donetsk, as well as a collapse of defensive lines protecting Luhansk from the South. 

This is certainly not the worst advertisement for a NATO military intervention.

I think more likely we could be in an anti incumbency era where incumbent presidents fail to win reelection. Keep in mind this was also the case from 1836-1896 when no incumbent outside Lincoln and Grant got reelected so its not like its unprecedent.

You’ve said this before, so i did some research.

And you’re right, but those incumbents also didn’t seem to run for a second term. Was it more common back then for incumbent presidents to lose renomination?

if so, you can’t really compare that era to now, where both Trump and Biden easily re-won their parties’ nominations, despite having low approval ratings.

[Trump and Biden are both uniquely unpopular politicians within their own parties.]

About 1-in-4 Americans have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump. This sentiment is more common among younger adults than older adults, and among voters who identify as independents.  Only 2% of Americans have a favorable opinion of both, lol.  Pew Research

I don't think this is a new normal, however.  Trump and Biden are both uniquely unpopular politicians within their own parties. Both parties will probably nominate more popular choices in 2028.

I don’t really disagree, but:

Clinton couldn’t get much less popular among Republicans, 88 percent of whom see her unfavorably. But she’s also lost 8 points in this measure among independents (to 31 percent) and among Democrats (to 79 percent, versus Trump’s 72 percent among Republicans).

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/poll-clinton-unpopularity-high-par-trump/story?id=41752050

Is it just a coincidence that Hillary Clinton was also unpopular in 2016? The common denominator between then and now is Trump being the Republican nominee, but that could also be a coincidence.

I guess Democrats got spoiled with Obama (not that his popularity did them much good downballot…). Perhaps someone more popular than Biden or Clinton, but not as popular as Obama is a realistic hope for the Dems

As a Dem who enthusiastically voted for Obama both times, I’d rather have a figure like Biden — who isn’t as charismatic but has made the party stronger downballot.

Obama had two great victories, but I still wonder if they were worth the shellacking Dems got in 2010 and 2014, which made us pretty weak when Trump first came into office.

If only there was a way to have both, but it seems like it’s always a trade off.

     I agree it would be amazing; greed is a massive idol in this country and nobody seriously questions it. Who among us could be the widow giving her entire livelihood? Certainly not I.

     I bring it up because by the standards of the FB post Lyndon shared he would be forced to also condemn that message, as it is telling others how to live (or I suppose, "controlling" them). If that was his point, he did not communicate it well.

If they start putting their money where their mouth is (like they do decades now with abortion and gay rights) then we'll see.

The Catholic Church runs of the largest charities globally ever.

2 real responses to this, really? This pandemic killed 7 million people globally. Meanwhile there are 37 responses of some piece of sh*t Rep calling another piece of sh*t Rep a beach blonde butch bitch

look man, we have SUPER serious issues to discuss right now, a professional kicker said some crazy sh**t dontchaknow.  If you want people to pay attention and post in your threads, don't remind them of something they were wrong about, they hate that sh**t.  You've got to give the otherside something to bite on or at least some easy dunks so they can pat each other on the back and say "attaboy".

also, a naked link with no commentary or quote is not likely to spawn much.

[“He is making Jews the face of the American war machine. And that is so deeply wrong]

WASHINGTON (AP) — An Interior Department staffer on Wednesday became the first Jewish political appointee to publicly resign in protest of U.S. support for Israel’s war in Gaza.

Lily Greenberg Call, a special assistant to the chief of staff in the Interior Department, accused President Joe Biden of using Jews to justify U.S. policy in the conflict.

Call had worked for the presidential campaigns of both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, and was a longtime activist and advocate for Israel in Washington and elsewhere before joining the government.

“He is making Jews the face of the American war machine. And that is so deeply wrong,” she said, noting that ancestors of hers were killed by “state-sponsored violence.”

https://apnews.com/article/resignation-gaza-war-biden-israel-a55c20d136f08127d16bce6ced1af82d

Interesting data but it’s hard to extrapolate much from it at this point in the race

ATL seeing fewer donations for Biden and Trump is interesting. Wonder why they have both fallen off in some areas?

Dumb performative BS is dumb performative BS.  News at 11:00.

I would’ve said no until Jon Ralston said that all of the D house incumbents were in trouble. He doesn’t usually raise the alarm for no reason and clearly thinks that Dems are losing ground in NV, and it was already a close state to begin with.

As of now this is probably a pure tossup (I.e. that Rs win one of these districts).

This. Tbh Democrats might have screwed themselves over by spreading their votes so thin...it's a house of cards...one big red wave and a 4-0 R House delegation is hardly impossible (maybe not this year, but then in 2026 if Biden pulls off a win).

Sort of gives me vibes of IA map last decade. IA map last decade wasn't a gerrymander (it was court drawn iirc) but Obama won 3/4 congressional districts but all flipped to Trump in 2016 and Dems struggled to hold them throughout the decade.

Yeah, exactly. It was visually pleasing and very compact, and of course it wasn't drawn with any intent to gerrymander, but by the end of the decade the effect it really had was to crack up all the sources of Democratic strength in eastern Iowa...it's actually very easy to draw a comfortably Democratic seat if you keep the Quad Cities area united, and it's not un-compact, either. Likewise, although the map looked nice, it cracked up the Des Moines area by drowning Polk/Dallas with heavily red rurals and putting Story County in an even redder seat.

Iowa City and Cedar Rapids aren't considered part of the Quad Cities.

Mb about the terminology, but I was just using "Quad Cities" to refer to those mid sized cities in eastern IA (Davenport / IA City / DBQ / Cedar Rapids).

Just for clarity's sake the Quad Cities are Davenport (IA), Bettendorf (IA), Moline (IL), and Rock Island (IL).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quad_Cities