Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[Boston Bread]

Any county flips?

[NOVA Green]

Any county flips?

Since Election day or county flips since Santa Barbara and San Louis Obispo posted 6/10?

[NOVA Green]

Clinton's lead is down to 10.9%

Clinton 55.0%
Sanders 44.1%

Notice however that her lead in actual votes has not gone down.  It means shes been winning the late ballots.

Technically true if one looks at "total late Vote-by-mail ballots counted since election day", but what is obscured in this statement is that the trend-lines from the first wave of "Late VbM" ballots consistently show that Hillary has not only seen a decrease of total percentages as a result of the late vote in the past week, but has actually narrowly lost the actual raw vote count.


So for example of the ~ 60.5k ballots updated today  (51-49) Bernie.

Yesterday's numbers  232.3k additional ballots (51-49 Bernie).

Monday's  numbers (Including weekend updates)- 182.3k ballots  (49.5-50.5%) Hillary.

So basically of the 475,000 Democratic ballots counted/updated over just the past three days they are now breaking for Bernie, even in counties with early VbM and election day numbers that Clinton won overwhelmingly (LA County's only real update so far of 130k votes was only 48-52 Hillary) and even Fresno and Kern county that both updated today with a decent chunk of ballots were only 51% Hillary.

So, what I am trying to say is that based upon my daily tracking of updates there appears to be a clear trend, is the the first wave of late VbMs favored Hillary, but the final wave of VbMs, that are predominately people that sent their ballots in only a few days before election day (And are the last to be counted) have actually been trending heavily Bernie.

What this means is that, considering where the bulk of the remaining VbMs are outstanding plays a factor, although granted we don't know the party affiliation breakdown of these ballots.

SoCal in general has been extremely favorable to Bernie in late VbMs and likely at least 25% of outstanding VbMs are from LA/Riverside/San Bernadino/Orange/San Diego.

In the Bay Area, much of the late VbMs have been counted, but Alameda which is Bernie's best county in the Bay still has 22k late VbMs that are likely overwhelmingly Democratic Party ballots.

Contra Costa County has been pretty inefficient in the pace of their vote counting, but has an estimated 56k outstanding late VbMs... they only did one small dump after election day and Bernie gained 1.1% in the margins, so even though a fairly heavily Hillary county in the Bay with EVs and Same Days, wouldn't be surprised to see not much if any of a final late VbM gain for Hillary.

Same with Marin, with ~25k late VbMs outstanding heavily Democratic ballots.

Sonoma, which hasn't updated anything since election day, really looks to me like a Santa Barbara/SLO county flip scenario, along with Yolo county.

So point is "Late VbMs" had an initial Hillary win, appear to be reversing course and could well be a Hillary loss once we get some more counties finalizing.

Provisional ballots, that no one has even started counting yet, excepting a few counties with <10k residents, however, is where there will likely be not only a visible shift in margins, but also drop off of total vote numbers, which is where we get to the "what percentage will the final Hillary win be" scenario.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Sacramento County has precinct maps (sort of; they aren't color coded by the victor) at http://sacresults.e-cers.com

Shasta County has precinct maps at http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CA/Shasta/62357/171522/Web01/en/summary.html

What other counties have released precinct maps?

[Eraserhead]

Margin is down to 10.7%.

Clinton 54.9%
Sanders 44.2%

[Fusionmunster]

Margin is down to 10.7%.

Clinton 54.9%
Sanders 44.2%

It's going to change a lot over the coming days Eraserhead, you don't have to update us over every update.

[Eraserhead]

Margin is down to 10.7%.

Clinton 54.9%
Sanders 44.2%

It's going to change a lot over the coming days Eraserhead, you don't have to update us over every update.

I don't have to but I choose to.

[NOVA Green]

Margin is down to 10.7%.

Clinton 54.9%
Sanders 44.2%

It's going to change a lot over the coming days Eraserhead, you don't have to update us over every update.

I don't have to but I choose to.

Erasehead might choose not to, but I will regardless, since unfortunately California has an even more complex and delayed Vote-by-Mail process than most other Western States...

Telling my age, but first Pres election that I could vote in was '92, and although I always voted from ever primary and GE, AND, am tracking results daily, even on my wedding anniversary.

Have been working in the private sector for the past 20 years, and will continue to follow and post updates, since after not only a Poly-Sci under grad degree, plus a Masters, and not to be rude, but if you don't appreciate updates you don't need to view them.....

[Eraserhead]

Margin is down to 10.7%.

Clinton 54.9%
Sanders 44.2%

It's going to change a lot over the coming days Eraserhead, you don't have to update us over every update.

I don't have to but I choose to.

Erasehead might choose not to, but I will regardless, since unfortunately California has an even more complex and delayed Vote-by-Mail process than most other Western States...

Telling my age, but first Pres election that I could vote in was '92, and although I always voted from ever primary and GE, AND, am tracking results daily, even on my wedding anniversary.

Have been working in the private sector for the past 20 years, and will continue to follow and post updates, since after not only a Poly-Sci under grad degree, plus a Masters, and not to be rude, but if you don't appreciate updates you don't need to view them.....

Beautifully stated!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie currently has won 5 districts: 1, 2, 13, 20, 28.
Check out the demographics of CA-13:
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White

[Holmes]

Bernie currently has won 5 districts: 1, 2, 13, 20, 28.
Check out the demographics of CA-13:
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White

Let's all give Sanders a round of applause, guys.

[JerryArkansas]

Bernie currently has won 5 districts: 1, 2, 13, 20, 28.
Check out the demographics of CA-13:
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White

And one of the largest colleges in California, but lets not mention that.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Bernie currently has won 5 districts: 1, 2, 13, 20, 28.
Check out the demographics of CA-13:
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White

WOW! BERNIE WON 5 DISTRICTS OUT OF 53!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FEEL THE BERN BITCHAZ!!!!

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Bernie currently has won 5 districts: 1, 2, 13, 20, 28.
Check out the demographics of CA-13:
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White

WOW! BERNIE WON 5 DISTRICTS OUT OF 53!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FEEL THE BERN BITCHAZ!!!!

6! He's leading in the 24th district too. (San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and part of Ventura Counties)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie currently has won 5 districts: 1, 2, 13, 20, 28.
Check out the demographics of CA-13:
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White

WOW! BERNIE WON 5 DISTRICTS OUT OF 53!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FEEL THE BERN BITCHAZ!!!!

6! He's leading in the 24th district too. (San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and part of Ventura Counties)

I meant 24 not 28

[IceSpear]

So when about 2 million ballots were left, she was ahead by 11.1%. Now that about 1.3 million ballots are left, she's ahead by 10.5%. If you make the assumption things continue in that pattern, she'd win by about 9.3%. However, provisionals throw a wrench in that, since a) we have no clue how many will be deemed invalid b) they should be much more Bernie friendly than the mail ins. There are about 600k mail ins left and 700k provisionals. This could be a squeaker to see whether or not she beats her 2008 margin (+8.31%). Being within single digits looks close to certain at this point.

[IceSpear]

Bernie currently has won 5 districts: 1, 2, 13, 20, 28.
Check out the demographics of CA-13:
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White

That's Barbara Lee's district with Berkeley, right? It was a miracle Hillary ever led there.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie currently has won 5 districts: 1, 2, 13, 20, 28.
Check out the demographics of CA-13:
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White

That's Barbara Lee's district with Berkeley, right? It was a miracle Hillary ever led there.

But that's about 20% of the district, compared to the 55% that is Oakland, the most diverse city in America, with a lot of blacks.

http://priceonomics.com/the-most-and-least-diverse-cities-in-america/

[Gass3268]

Bernie currently has won 5 districts: 1, 2, 13, 20, 28.
Check out the demographics of CA-13:
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White

That's Barbara Lee's district with Berkeley, right? It was a miracle Hillary ever led there.

But that's about 20% of the district, compared to the 55% that is Oakland, one of the most diverse cities in America, with a lot of blacks.

If you asked me to give you one city where Sanders would have a chance at winning the black vote, it would be Oakland.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie currently has won 5 districts: 1, 2, 13, 20, 28.
Check out the demographics of CA-13:
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White

That's Barbara Lee's district with Berkeley, right? It was a miracle Hillary ever led there.

But that's about 20% of the district, compared to the 55% that is Oakland, one of the most diverse cities in America, with a lot of blacks.

If you asked me to give you one city where Sanders would have a chance at winning the black vote, it would be Oakland.

You mean besides the obvious like Burlington VT? It actually has a higher black percentage than Hillary's hometown.

I don't know if any results other than by county or congressional district are available yet.

[Landslide Lyndon]

You mean besides the obvious like Burlington VT? It actually has a higher black percentage than Hillary's hometown.

Burlington has more blacks than Chicago?

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

How did he do in the 17th?

[IceSpear]

How did he do in the 17th?

Right now, it's Clinton +14.5%.

The California SoS gives results for all CDs.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/contests/president/party/democratic/

[Joe Republic]

If you asked me to give you one city where Sanders would have a chance at winning the black vote, it would be Oakland.

You mean besides the obvious like Burlington VT? It actually has a higher black percentage than Hillary's hometown.

Burlington has 1600 black people.  Whoop de doo.

[Sbane]

Bernie currently has won 5 districts: 1, 2, 13, 20, 28.
Check out the demographics of CA-13:
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White

That's Barbara Lee's district with Berkeley, right? It was a miracle Hillary ever led there.

But that's about 20% of the district, compared to the 55% that is Oakland, the most diverse city in America, with a lot of blacks.

http://priceonomics.com/the-most-and-least-diverse-cities-in-america/

The people here keep harping on about Berkeley when in reality Bernie obviously did very well in Oakland. He might not have won the city, but he likely did better there than in San Francisco. That is worth noting.