NY-09, Special Election Thread

[NY Jew]

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

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Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.

when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)

...which...which aspect of what Coolidge did to the Republican Party? Do you mean leading it to one EC landslide and setting up another? Indirectly leading to a crushing defeat later on with my economic policies? Making it more conservative somehow? And what does any of this have to do with the shape or demographics of NY-09?

While I can parse most of what you're saying, your random use of Hebrew nouns (other than teshuva, which should be obvious to anyone) also isn't helping your case, as it makes you seem insular.

1. Coolidge lost the Jewish vote for the Republicans (and also lost many Catholics) (look it up if you don't know why)
2. the message was specifically for you and not meant that everyone should understand it. (and you supposedly know Hebrew, which I know see isn't true so don't lecture me on the bible again)

[NY Jew]

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2011/09/16/2011-09-16_the_real_reason_jews_deserted_david_weprin_in_ny9_its_not_because_theyre_mad_at_.html#ixzz1YGSHQIhO


"In the 27th AD, Simanowitz won the 44th ED - in Kew Gardens Hills - by roughly a 4 to 1 margin.  Weprin lost it by a similar ratio. "
I wonder what made people change their minds (keep in mind their was a slight fear that Simanowitz might vote the wrong way on marriage when it comes up for a repeal)

everyone I spoke to (I'm 100% sure that I spoke to more Orthodox Jews who voted in this race than anyone of you did and they'll be more honest with me) in this race voted solely due to marriage ext.

[NY Jew]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again?

Maybe 12-20% of likely special election voters, but they tend to be far more swingy than other voters and a lot more reliable for turnout, so it depends on other groups'  turnout too for how to calculate it.

Although on the federal level, they're not swingy at all  lately! If you were to hypothetically subtract out Orthodox voters who voted against pre-scandal Weiner in 2010 (Weiner was a 7-term incumbent or something with all the money in the world), their likely voter population might be cut in at least a half, if not two thirds.  Makes you wonder if Weprin was right to spend all that time focusing on the Orthodox community (going onto the radio with Dov Hikind, other Orthodox radio shows, etc., but never once playing up his half-Latino roots, even though Latinos are 14% of the district).

many Jews voted against Weiner last time because of marriage and the like (Turner last time ran on a social Conservative platform which many Jews still remember from last time) (If Turner would have run a better campaign last time he would have beat Weiner too)

[NY Jew]

Let's not pretend that Orthodox Jews "believing Obama is anti-Semitic" isn't just a projection and proactive defense of their own issues with Obama's ethnic and racial background.

I guess when Orthodox Jews voted for Alan West we were also being racist
considering the peanut farmer is even more widely considered an anti semite I wonder how you'll spin that.

[NY Jew]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

The key point is that McCain already won over 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote in this district in 2008. They couldn't be the deciding factor because they didn't have any more room to swing (although I suppose there might have been a turnout differential). Any talk on here of marriage is just noise.

because if not for the marriage Weprin would have won the Orthodox vote big putting him
if you can't understand this basic fact your totally clueless into the Orthodox vote.
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.

[NY Jew]

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KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

[NY Jew]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

The key point is that McCain already won over 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote in this district in 2008. They couldn't be the deciding factor because they didn't have any more room to swing (although I suppose there might have been a turnout differential). Any talk on here of marriage is just noise.

because if not for the marriage Weprin would have won the Orthodox vote big putting him
if you can't understand this basic fact your totally clueless into the Orthodox vote.
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.

There is a bit of logic here. The Presidency has the greatest influence on foreign policy, the Congress some, and state offices very little. If Israel is priority #1, priority #1 will sway the Presidential vote, priorities #2,#3... will balance the Congressional vote, and priorities #2,#3... will dictate the state office vote.

not the way I broke it down
1. is the reason why Orthodox Jews voted for Turner over Weprin is gay marriage (very easy to prove if you want to look at any Orthodox Web site on this election, speak to may Orthodox Jews is in this district, read the Orthodox Newspapers that went for Turner, find out why prominent Orthodox Jews endorsed Turner, look at the polling data that breaks down Orthodox Jews into a separate category)
and now point 2 which is where I said it was illogical
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.

[NY Jew]

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KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.

Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)

[NY Jew]

This exchange puts me in the uncomfortable position of defending Bob, but his analysis has the benefit of being grammatically coherent. Do you even realise that he's not actually disagreeing with you?

he gave him to much credit

[NY Jew]

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KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.

Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)

If you're interested in the Democrats' positioning at this time I'd highly recommend a book titled The 103rd Ballot: Democrats and the Disaster in Madison Square Garden, about the 1924 DNC. It's considerably more complicated than just Davis, although I agree with you that Coolidge sure as Hell didn't do sh**t for Jews or Catholics (or much of anybody, really; then again he also didn't do much stuff against anybody in particular, so...).

the 1924 immigration bill was against Jews and Catholics.

I understand it's more "complicated than just Davis" but the effect of his condemning the Klan and Coolidge not had a damning effect on ethnic whites voting Republican for years afterwards.

[NY Jew]

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KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.

Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)

If you're interested in the Democrats' positioning at this time I'd highly recommend a book titled The 103rd Ballot: Democrats and the Disaster in Madison Square Garden, about the 1924 DNC. It's considerably more complicated than just Davis, although I agree with you that Coolidge sure as Hell didn't do sh**t for Jews or Catholics (or much of anybody, really; then again he also didn't do much stuff against anybody in particular, so...).

the 1924 immigration bill was against Jews and Catholics.

I understand it's more "complicated than just Davis" but the effect of his condemning the Klan and Coolidge not had a damning effect on ethnic whites voting Republican for years afterwards.

All right, I'll concede this point. Though I don't even remember how it came up.

here's how

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[NY Jew]

Here's a question for you: Don't you also argue that it's gerrymandered already?

of course the Jewish Communities in Brooklyn are the most gerrymandered areas in the country but right now most people don't realize how bad it is if this is done it would be broadcast across the country.



In short If this district is eliminated then Jews across the country will rebel against the dems big Because this will be seen as targeting Jews which it is (the ones who will be furious over this one are growing rapidly)

[NY Jew]

Here's a question for you: Don't you also argue that it's gerrymandered already?

]

In short If this district is eliminated then Jews across the country will rebel against the dems big Because this will be seen as targeting Jews which it is (the ones who will be furious over this one are growing rapidly)

umm..this district being eliminated would lead to a district with a higher concentration of Jews than NY-9 most likely, and better representation

also -- wouldn't be Democrats, it'd be a bipartisan agreement between the GOP and Dems

depends how it's done destroying Turner with out ungerrymandering Brooklyn people will be furious.

[NY Jew]

Here's a question for you: Don't you also argue that it's gerrymandered already?

]

In short If this district is eliminated then Jews across the country will rebel against the dems big Because this will be seen as targeting Jews which it is (the ones who will be furious over this one are growing rapidly)

umm..this district being eliminated would lead to a district with a higher concentration of Jews than NY-9 most likely, and better representation

also -- wouldn't be Democrats, it'd be a bipartisan agreement between the GOP and Dems

depends how it's done destroying Turner with out ungerrymandering Brooklyn people will be furious.

not if Coumo vetos what ever the Republicans put forth

[NY Jew]

I challenge you to draw a situation where NY-9 is gone that divides the Orthodox Brooklyn vote more than it's currently divided.

I'm not sure if it's possible, it certainly seems quite difficult at the very least.

It's possible in Brooklyn but not much but
right now Weiner's seat includes the Orthodox Jewish communties in Queens and splitting those off will destroy both communities

[NY Jew]

the final results are in and Turner won by 3686 votes

[NY Jew]

here are some sampling of how much Turner won by in some Orthodox areas (in Brooklyn I didn't do 41 and 59) (there are also other majority Orthodox Jewish EDs in Queens and also a significant amount Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn under Ave T (though not a majority))
Turner won
by 603 votes in the 44th AD (8 EDs)
by 90 votes in the 47th AD (2 EDs)
by 745 votes in the 48th AD (9 EDs)
by 1903 votes in the 45th AD in all EDs that cover ground above Ave T (25 EDs)
by 896 votes in Kew Garden Hills EDs in the 27th (12) (in the most Jewish one of all these Turner won by 251 votes)

total of all these 4237 more votes for Turner then Weprin

final results of the entire election Turner won by 3686 votes

in short there is no way that Turner Wins with out the Orthodox vote which came primarily due to marriage redefinition.

[NY Jew]

interesting numbers for a special election in many areas Turner got more votes (not %) then he did last time (any guesses what all these districts have in common)


in the 22th AD
2011 Turner (17 votes) Weprin (71 votes)
2010 Turner (44 votes) Weiner (136 votes)

in the 23th AD
2011 Turner (6164 votes) Weprin (4322 votes)
2010 Turner (7144 votes) Weiner (8098 votes)

in the 24th AD
2011 Turner (1476 votes) Weprin (2914 votes)
2010 Turner (2335 votes) Weiner (5055 votes)

in the 25th AD
2011 Turner (1309 votes) Weprin (2243 votes)
2010 Turner (1733 votes) Weiner (4348 votes)

in the 26th AD
2011 Turner (38 votes) Weprin (43 votes)
2010 Turner (88 votes) Weiner (119 votes)

in the 27th AD
2011 Turner (3714 votes) Weprin (4485 votes)
2010 Turner (3529 votes) Weiner (8505 votes)

in the 28th AD
2011 Turner (6436 votes) Weprin (8546 votes)
2010 Turner (7949 votes) Weiner (15585 votes)

in the 29th AD
2011 Turner (4 votes) Weprin (31 votes)
2010 Turner (6 votes) Weiner (73 votes)

in the 30th AD
2011 Turner (1002 votes) Weprin (667 votes)
2010 Turner (1641 votes) Weiner (1778 votes)

in the 31th AD
2011 Turner (4 votes) Weprin (10 votes)
2010 Turner (3 votes) Weiner (9 votes)

in the 35th AD
2011 Turner (343 votes) Weprin (403 votes)
2010 Turner (333 votes) Weiner (892 votes)

in the 37th AD
2011 Turner (110 votes) Weprin (93 votes)
2010 Turner (207 votes) Weiner (260 votes)

in the 38th AD
2011 Turner (1721 votes) Weprin (2089 votes)
2010 Turner (2454 votes) Weiner (5123 votes)

in the 41th AD
2011 Turner (3591 votes) Weprin (2517 votes)
2010 Turner (3832 votes) Weiner (5482 votes)

in the 44th AD
2011 Turner (836 votes) Weprin (233 votes)
2010 Turner (693 votes) Weiner (651 votes)

in the 45th AD
2011 Turner (5891 votes) Weprin (2588 votes)
2010 Turner (5573 votes) Weiner (5536 votes)

in the 46th AD
2011 Turner (17 votes) Weprin (25 votes)
2010 Turner (27 votes) Weiner (73 votes)

in the 48th AD
2011 Turner (1031 votes) Weprin (286 votes)
2010 Turner (959 votes) Weiner (925 votes)

in the 59th AD
2011 Turner (3517 votes) Weprin (2059 votes)
2010 Turner (4466 votes) Weiner (4249 votes)

[NY Jew]

Woah, this is still relevant?

yes while this district is unique, the demographics that won it in this district are spread throughout the North East and i  can see similar results to this in a few other North East Districts on all levels of government depending how redistricting goes. (and assuming the Republicans in the North East can grow a brain they can start winning other CDs in the North East)