UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

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So Labour are only going to run a skeleton campaign for this one (cash-strapped), and running a 25 year old student politician type as candidate. This is probably going to step up to be a Tory vs. Helmer affair.

Ugh, imagine if we had a two round voting system and had to choose between Helmer and the government.

Who thinks the Lib Dems will save their deposit? (The answer is no, they won't.)

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So Labour are only going to run a skeleton campaign for this one (cash-strapped), and running a 25 year old student politician type as candidate. This is probably going to step up to be a Tory vs. Helmer affair.

Ugh, imagine if we had a two round voting system and had to choose between Helmer and the government.

I'd either hold my nose and vote for the Government (if the Government candidate was a Lib Dem or relatively sane sort of Tory) or spoil my ballot.

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One danger for the Lib Dems, deposit-wise, is that if this becomes perceived as a Con/UKIP contest (which seems likely) then the more Coalition-tolerant part of their 2010 vote may be squeezed by the Tories.

I think on balance I'd expect them to hold it -- they had over 20% here in 2010, and while that was true in Wythenshawe & Sale East too, Newark isn't very like Wythenshawe -- but I wouldn't be that surprised if they didn't.

That's exactly what I was thinking. The left wing of the Lib Dems base have long gone, and the Tory seems like a sort of agreeable careerist who could grab right leaning Liberals. Obviously he could be a Hutchings style loon, but the only real known quantity at the moment is Helmer, who LD's certainly want out of parliament.

I suppose the one benefit is the Liberal candidate is actually local and hasn't been parachuted in, so he could have a local following.

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If I were a UKIP member, I wouldn't want to win this election. True, I'd want Cameron to sweat; but only to the extent of the blue team winning by a whisker. Because, if UKIP do win attention will be pulled from cuddly telegenic Farage and drawn to the fruitcake. UKIP is a vehicle for Farage's charisma - can that be channelled through a somewhat unreliable proxy? Doubtful.

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I don't know, looking at the map of Cambridgeshire 2013 elections, UKIP did not penetrate any of South Cambridgeshire and maintained their sprawling rural wards.



Looking at the ward-by-ward results for South C, it looks like the LD's haven't entered freefall; so the party may still remain second. If a "Newark" result occurs here, we can only declare Libdemegeddon.

I can't find the Euro election results though, which may be more helpful.

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Mike Hancock's political career is clearly very very over now.

He will presumably try to avoid resigning his seat and his (soon to be former?) party would not wish for a by-election, which would be a circus and a free-for-all.

The Kremlin must be very sad its pet shill turned out to be even more awful than suspected.

I don't think Hancock will run as an indie, unless his ego is incomprehensibly distorted.
 And as much as he deserves it he won't be forced to resign, so a by-election is unlikely.

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Ladbrooks by-election odds:

1/3 UKIP
5/2 Cons
10/1 Lab
100/1 LD

I wonder who else in the Tory ranks would be tempted to break ranks if all hell breaks loose. Michael Fabricant? Owen Patterson? Nadine Dories? Peter Bone? Dan Hannan?

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Ladbrooks by-election odds:

1/3 UKIP
5/2 Cons
10/1 Lab
100/1 LD

I wonder who else in the Tory ranks would be tempted to break ranks if all hell breaks loose. Michael Fabricant? Owen Patterson? Nadine Dories? Peter Bone? Dan Hannan?

You mean Dan Hannan the MEP (who cannot force a by-election due to the method of his election)?

Yes. I didn't mean to imply "cause by-elections", sorry, just some prominent Tories that might floor cross.

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Carswell will almost certainly be elected, but is there a chance he could be buried in the general election's "Labour v. Tory" shuffle?

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I do love when retired politicians realise they don't need to appease electorate any more, and just spew all the stored-up bile they've squirrelled away, without care. I doubt it will help the alienation of provincial people who feel alienated by the big cities, though.

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Yes, and Labour are terrified enough to force the writ to move backwards so they can quickly mobilise their machine and prevent UKIP momentum building.

It's odd that Catholic factions are considered social conservatives in the UK and Australia, but in the US Catholics are relatively moderate.

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Bacup is the place I was thinking of...

Just five candidates for Heywood & Middleton:
John Bickley (UKIP)
Iain Gartside (Con)
Abi Jackson (Green)
Liz McInnes (Lab)
Anthony Smith (Lib Dem)

And for reference, in 2010 this was the (rounded) results:

Labour - 40
Tory - 27
Lib Dem - 23
BNP - 7
UKIP - 3

After a healthy cannibalisation of the two coalition parties, we might end up with a result like this: (warning of terrible and doubtless incorrect prediction coming)

Labour 50%
UKIP 30%
Conservative 13%
Lib Dem 4%
Green 3%

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I have seen some really dumb predictions of defectors based on vague hearsay. The Mirror had a claim that my Southgate MP is thinking of leaving. If he does all power to him, but Enfield Southgate would be a dreadful place to run as UKIP for like a million reasons.

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Christ that was closer than I thought.

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Here's an curious thought: remember how in 2010, all sorts of Guardianasta's and the like came forward to say "We must vote Lib Dem, whatever their platform; for only they can bring about the electoral reform this country needs!"

Imagine if those people all start voting for UKIP - after all, they are an PR supporting minor party with a chance of bringing about such reform. And I did hear a lot of people say "I'll vote for anyone who gives me electoral reform"...

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Assuming Reckless wins as well, how likely is it that we start seeing more Tory defections?

Very hard to say.  I'm sure there are a few Tories who are tempted, but whether they decide to jump is another matter; some of them are in UKIP-unfriendly seats (like Enfield Southgate, as mentioned above) so probably won't unless they're standing down or planning to move constituency.  Farage also talks about possible Labour defections, but I'm not sure whether anyone really believes him.

BTW the Tories are supposedly going to move the writ for Rochester & Strood next week, with polling day on 6 November.  They're also going for a postal open primary (as opposed to an open hustings followed by a vote, which is what they did in Clacton) to select their candidate.

Today's Daily Express (I know, I know) says 6 Tories are thinking of defecting post-Rochester

Yeah, the Express is effectively the closest thing UKIP has to an in-house propaganda sheet now.

Supposedly, the next two candidates to defect are the MP's for Bournemouth West, and Basildon and Billericay. Apparently they've been spotted chatting to Farage in a pub, or something silly like that. Of course, the peril for UKIP is that the more Tory headbanger MP's they attract; the more tricky their much-vaunted "crossover support" for "disenchanted Labour" voters becomes.


The Mirror also had a "helpful" graphic of all the most likely Tories to defect based on how much they rebelled against party line. Seeing as Zac Goldsmith was fourth, they possibly should have established a less crude way to predict defectees...

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who knows? the Mirror works in mysterious ways...

I don't see why they's count out Bournemouth so easily. UKIP easily saved their deposits last time around in both constituencies and Bournemouth's other constutuency gave a horrendously high vote to the awfully, tremendously racist "New Britain" back in the 70's.

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Incidentally, Billericay's 90's era "maverick" MP Teresa Gorman is now a UKIP supporter. The Billericay constituency has seen some ... interesting characters in its time, so a UKIP defectee would be be par for the course.

I wonder if any ministers could fall to a surprise UKIP surge.

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Reckless living up to his name, to the consternation of UKIP HQ.

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English Democrats + UKIP + BNP last time in Doncaster North was over 16%. Assuming UKIP collects all that and more, I'm sure they'll get second; and Ed won't get the traditional "new leader boost".

Doncaster and South Yorkshire is the base of the Eng Dems. Will UKIP completely bust them, I wonder?

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Weirdly long count even for a by-election.

Probably MI5 stuffing the ballots

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The English flag has in its time had some unpleasant connotations. Unlike the Scottish and Welsh flags, the flag has never had much "legitimate" political use, and was usurped by racists and fascists. For a large amount of time, having an English flag outside your house was like hanging a Confederate flag in the South. In the 90's there was an enormous attempt to "rehabilitate" the flag from the kooks, with the St George flag being "brought into the new century" in that very 90's way.

The flag is rescued now, but it still exists in an uneasy half-way house between legitimacy and its scary former connotations (and of course general tackiness). I'd admit that I'd probably react similarly to Thornberry if I saw a house decked out with England flags in a non-sporting context - I would make certain (unfair) assumptions about the owner's political beliefs.  But then again a) I wouldn't be a prick about it on Twitter and b) I wouldn't day this while being a sitting member of the Shadow Cabinet.

Also, Thornberry is from Islington which carries its own connotations of snobby "champagne socialism". Think Obama's comment about "clinging to guns and Bibles", for an American comparison. The Labour Party is suffering a slight backlash in non-metropolitan areas of the country - it certainly doesn't need some North London snob to tell small town poors they are tacky morons.

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The Labour Party is suffering a slight backlash in non-metropolitan areas of the country

It is highly questionable whether this is actually happening outside the fevered imagination of out of touch political junkies (of all hues) in central London, but whatever.

I think I'm just internally preparing for the worst case scenario :/

Apparently Thornberry is just really addicted to taking pictures if buildings:

https://storify.com/shivmalik/emily-thornberry-tweets-alot-about-buildings-and-s