Washington state megathread

[CultureKing]

R-71 poll released by the Approve campaign (Washington Families Standing Together or whatever):

Approve 51%
Reject 44%
Undecided 5%

Reasons why this poll might be crap:
* Who is Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and what are they doing determining a 2009 likely voter in my state?
* 51% is nowhere near where this question shows up
* Them's there mighty convenient numbers for R-71 fundraising purposes.  Close, but a lead.

Reasons why it might not be:
* They actually specify the question asked, and it's the one on the ballot.
* Off-year voters are older and more conservative, blablablabla.
* We're calling Likely Democratic voters in King County, and let me tell ya, we're getting our share of strong opposition.

Your call.

Today's Elway has not leaked...yet.

I will be very disapointed in Washington if we manage to fail this. Though I feel like the equally big worry is I-1033 (which I feel is likelier to pass and could have a horrible impact on the state)...

[CultureKing]

After a bad news cycle for Mallahan, it's a tie for Seattle mayor, SUSA (9/29):

Mallahan 38% (-3)
McGinn 38% (+2)

Mallahan's base remains older and more conservative, but the all-important suburban left-center vote seems to have trended a bit McGinn.

I am expecting low turnout that will help Mallahan.t

[CultureKing]

Hmm... this could turn areas like Pasco, Yakima and Walla Walla into much more competitive areas. Especially if the new regulations being put into place by Obama do increase the time it takes to get citizenship.

Rise Democrats, Rise!

Though it is not as if Washington hasn't become freakishly hard for the republicans in the last 10 or so years.

[CultureKing]

Microsoft just chucked in 100k for the Approve side

I love Microsoft. And this is not me just talking because of the perks of living near such a rich corporation.

[CultureKing]

As part of the young democrats we just hosted a debate on R-71 at our campus. We invited a speaker and we let the republicans invite a speaker. We probably managed to get 175 or so people to attend. It was hilarious, the republican speaker compared homosexuals to rapists and child-molesters, then cited the bible and said that our human rights came from the 10 commandments not the US constitution. Many of those who came in support of the republicans were insulted, and I won't even talk about how angry our local LGBT alliance was. Basically we had a mediocre speaker and theirs ruined any chance they had to convince anyone to come to their side.

Oh and after the debate we got about 25-30 volunteers to sign up.

[CultureKing]

Too bad you didn't videotape it.

I didn't videotape it but the university TV station did. So now everyone will know about the "gay agenda", and yes he actually referred to the movement as such.

[CultureKing]

WHY DO COLLEGE STUDENTS NOT VOTE FOR ANYTHING THAT IS NOT THE FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT

Agreed. Sometimes I get really annoyed with how the young and liberal vote is so apathetic.

[CultureKing]

By the way Bgwah, Larry Stickney himself was the No on Ref. 71 debater we had over here at Gonzaga. Remember this is the guy who has married three times, was accused of beating his wife and refused to send his daughter to college.

Oh and by the way No on I-1033 got a ton of money last minute, with a good amount coming from Gates.

[CultureKing]

"That particular group of judges saw the law one way; we'll take it to the next group of judges that may have the opportunity to see it the correct way," said Stephen Pidgeon, attorney for the conservative religious organization.

Is it November 4th yet? At least opposition in Maine acts tame towards same-sex couples in public.

We here in Washington have very, very conservative republicans. Which always feels odd considering how we are viewed politically by people from outside the state. Remember: this is where Glenn Beck came from. It is also why the state republican party has imploded over the last 10 years or so...

[CultureKing]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hos_uIKwC-c&feature=player_embedded

epic

I like how the simulated earthquake was only a bit worse than the 2001 Nisqually Earthquake in order to get that effect. The viaduct is a death trap.

[CultureKing]

Hmm... Is Washington really 32% conservative, 43% moderate and 20% liberal?

I feel like that is way off.

[CultureKing]

Breaking allegations of sexual misconduct by Constantine with a former county employee. Sound Politics broke it and the Seattle Times is digging around pretty heavily.

Fuck.

What a horrible candidate.

Couldn't King County come up with someone better?
Hopefully there are enough early votes to not let Hutchinson in, but really I am not sure if Constantine deserves it.

[CultureKing]

Definitely a few guesses that I could be completely wrong for on my county maps... The Portland media market in particular is always hard to peg.

Anyway, my I-1033 map. I say the vote goes 42.5-57.5


R-71... I say 54.5-45.5


SEATTLE MAYOR
54-46 Mallahan

KING COUNTY EXECUTIVE
54-46 Constantine

This is basically exactly what I think will happen. Though a two exceptions: Mallahan only wins 53-47 and R-71 passes 58-42 (yes I think it will be a big gap, hopefully I am right).

[CultureKing]

polls close in 20 mins, right?

[CultureKing]

Can someone explain to me what happened in Spokane?

[CultureKing]

Can someone explain to me what happened in Spokane?

Pfft, you tell us!

Hey just because I live here 9 months a year doesn't mean I understand them. Or at least that is what I am getting out of the results coming out of here, I thought R-71 would run about even in Spokane county...

[CultureKing]

wow... Pierce county = fail. I was expecting more out of them.

[CultureKing]

Oh olympia... why did I leave?

Spokane is the reason this state can't have nice things. Oh and by the way the northern suburbs of Spokane are mostly lower-middle class blue collar workers. I feel like they exemplify the type of voter who would vote democratic but against such measures as these. Thankfully the Gonzaga precinct voted in favor, though I don't know what the numbers are.

[CultureKing]

and the viaduct saga continues...

UGH! Thanks Seattle.

[CultureKing]

Baird voted against the health care bill. Any chance there could be a challenge against him that someone like me could work for?

[CultureKing]

Looking at past gubernatorial elections, it now looked pretty amazing and improbable that former Governor Gary Locke did so well in Eastern Washington in 1996 and 2000.  He won 57% of the vote in Spokane Co, 51% in Walla Walla Co and came within a point of winning the GOP bastions of Benton and Franklin Co in 2000.  And this was running against a candidate with a plan from God in 1996 and a talk-show host in 2000 - natural constituencies for conservative Eastern Washington.  On the other hand, he seemed to have slightly underperformed in King Co (66%) by today's standards.

My question is has the state become more polarized in the ensuing years?  Was Gary Locke still relatively popular when he left office and how do Washingtonians today view him in general?  Was he viewed as governor of one Washington or just another Subaru driving liberal from Seattle?   Thanks for any comments.

Personally I saw Locke as being a very popular but truthfully mediocre governor. While he could bring a large number of people together he also was unwilling to put himself out there on certain issues that might be contentious. Basically he was terrified of making people angry it seems. We will have to see what comes of him in the next few years. I have a feeling he will not be done in the political world after he finishes up as the commerce secretary.

[CultureKing]

Question: does anyone sees a future for Gregoire after 2012 in a possible Obama administration?
She doesn't have many options since both Washington senators are relatively young and safe.

She'd make a phenomenal Attorney General for Obama's second term. In terms of likelihood I'd place them fairly high - being an early supporter of Obama certainly helps her in that sense as well. She was also mentioned earlier this year as a possible Supreme Court Justice.

I could also see her as a supreme court justice. And I definitely think her early support for Obama was important, she was the only one of the big three (the senators plus governor) who endorsed Obama and at least helped him a bit as he cruised to a huge victory here.

[CultureKing]

I have never really understood why Pierce county is so conservative in relation to the rest of the Puget Sound area. It has a major urban area in Tacoma, a good amount of educated people and while yes it does have a military base so do Kitsap and Island counties... Perhaps it just needs to be  the odd man out.

[CultureKing]

I have never really understood why Pierce county is so conservative in relation to the rest of the Puget Sound area. It has a major urban area in Tacoma, a good amount of educated people and while yes it does have a military base so do Kitsap and Island counties... Perhaps it just needs to be  the odd man out.

Pierce County just has a heck of a lot of this crap -- mid-density, fairly uneducated sprawlburbia.  Take the Elk Plain-Graham-Spanaway area, for instance.  Nearly 100,000 people.  Median household income is about 25% higher than national average.  Bachelor's degree possession is nearly 40% lower.

Pierce County suburbs aren't Seattle suburbs, too.  Take University Place.  Median household income about 30% higher than national average.  But even in the most "polished" Tacoma suburb, only a third of residents have a bachelor's degree.  In parts of North Tacoma, that number is around 60%.  But that part of Tacoma is a minority in Tacoma, which is in turn less than a quarter of Pierce County.

Pierce County does have areas with an educated, middle class King County-ish culture.  It's just that it has a lot more areas, with a lot more people, that there's just no reason to go to, unless you happen to know somebody in the 312th Avenue Court East sprawlfest.  And those areas are low-education, dual-income, lower middle class family areas.  They were bad for OK for Gore, bad for John Kerry, better for Obama, and death for R-71.

Thurston and Snohomish have a lot of that too, though, and King County has some.  Outside of the core Seattle metro, growth management in the Puget Sound was pretty horrible.

But here in Thurston we still outweigh all the suburb areas drastically by the very democratically partisan areas of Olympia, Boston Harbor and Evergreen.

[CultureKing]

Evergreen wasn't at 100%?!!? I am shocked. Though I could see some voting against it simply because it didn't go far enough (as in it wasn't full marriage.)