Oddly, in 2011, the opinion polls put United Russia about 5% higher than they actually got in the Duma election. This might be down to turnout or due to the last poll being two weeks before the elections, rather than anything radical. Also, United Russia were way down on the previous election in 2007.
VCIOM poll (19-20 Nov 2011)
United Russia - 53.7%
Communist - 16.7%
Liberal Dems - 11.6%
A Just Russia - 10.0%
Duma election (4 Dec 2011)
United Russia - 49.3% (-15.0 on 2007)
Communist - 19.2% (+7.6)
A Just Russia - 13.2% (+5.5)
Liberal Dems - 11.7% (+3.5)
That's not to say that there wasn't voting fraud, as it's pretty clear that there was. It would be interesting to know how transparent Russian opinion polling is, though.
