Elections in Cataluña/Catalonia 27 September

[jmlv]

I have not seen a thread on the elections that will take place in a week time in Cataluña (Spain), so that I take the opportunity to open a post explaining the current scenario.

The main parties are:

Junts pel Si: it is a coalition in favour of independence, which is mainly supported by Convergencia Demcoratica de Catalunya, CDC (former partner in the coalition CiU with Unió Democrática de Cataluña, now separate, and it is the party of the President Artur Mas and the former President Jordi Pujol) and Esquerra Republicana the Cataluña (ERC). CDC is right wing liberal party while ERC is left-wing. The connecting point is pro-independence. Funny enough the leaders of both parties go in number 4 and 5 of the list, even if they agree that if they win, Mas will be the president.

Ciudadanos: this party is against independence and their ideology is economic-liberal. Their leader, Albert Rivera, will run for the general elections in Spain. The candidate is a 33 years old woman, Inés Arrimadas.

Catalunya si que es Pot: a coalition of Iniciativa Per Catalunya-Verds and Podemos. It is left-wing coalition, against austerity, and in relation to independence, they are in favor of a referendum but not neccesarily of independence.

PSC: The Socialist Party, against independence and in favor of a federal Spain, has been down and down in the polls and now is polling four. His leader, Miquel Iceta, openly gay candidate.

PP. The Popular Party, against independence, and the ruling party in Spain, has as candidate Xavier García Albiol, controversial candidate who was the Mayor of Badalone, third largest city, and did not get the overañll majority in the last elections. He is controversial because of his anti-immigration speech. They are polling fifth in most polls.

CUP: left-wing pro-independence party, geowing in the polls.

UDC: Unió Democrática de Catalunya, former partner of CDC, right-wing conservative party. It does not have a guaranteed seat according to polls.

[politicus]

Well, we have a Spanish Elections and Politics thread for all the Spanish elections. Thats why you haven't seen a special thread.

[jmlv]

Yes, I saw that general thread. That thread does not have much movement. In my opinion, each election has its own entity (as there are special threads for Scotland or the Faroe, beyond UK or Denmark). Particularly taking into account that the focus of these elections are the independence of Catalonia.

[politicus]

Yes, I saw that general thread. That thread does not have much movement. In my opinion, each election has its own entity (as there are special threads for Scotland or the Faroe, beyond UK or Denmark). Particularly taking into account that the focus of these elections are the independence of Catalonia.

That is up to the posters: We have national threads on the board for Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands, Italy and Spain. So Spain is not alone and not the biggest country having one. It is typically done for countries with a federal system or autonomous regions and therefore many elections.

[jmlv]

I would never imagine that Cataluña could be compared to a German lander or a Dutch province and not to Scotland or Northern Ireland, in political terms.

There are four Autonomies which held elections differently and at different times than the other thirteen: the historical nations.

I very much doubt that the main point of an election in a German or Austrian lander would be independence.

[Bacon King]

Yes, I saw that general thread. That thread does not have much movement. In my opinion, each election has its own entity (as there are special threads for Scotland or the Faroe, beyond UK or Denmark). Particularly taking into account that the focus of these elections are the independence of Catalonia.

That is up to the posters: We have national threads on the board for Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands, Italy and Spain. So Spain is not alone and not the biggest country having one. It is typically done for countries with a federal system or autonomous regions and therefore many elections.

Since every nation gets their own thread, I don't see what the issue is here

[jmlv]

I do not think they will declare independence the 28th but if Junts pel Si and CUP get the overall majority, they will work on it.

[Clyde1998]

I still think Independence should be achieved via a referendum on the subject - shame the Spanish Government won't permit one.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

To be fair, we only started talking about all the elections in the same thread for convenience sake.

There have been the usual warnings - Catalonia would automatically be kicked from the EU, ECB, NATO, UN, WTo, IMF and, worst of all, Barcelona will be kicked from LA Liga.

@clyde, yes Rajoy is a real idiot on this issue. The secessionists would have probably lost if he had just called a referendum...

[jmlv]

Even though I agree with you both - I am in favour of that referendum, there are many doubts as if Rajoy himself could even call a referendum on the matter.

Of course the President can call referendos, but the Constitution would be a limit for him to have a vote on the independence of Cataluña without a previous constitutional reform.

[jmlv]

One of the latest polls: overall majority for independence: Junts pel Si and CUP.

http://cadenaser.com/emisora/2015/09/21/radio_barcelona/1442813352_895709.html

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Would an independent Costalonia be a Republic or will the Spanish monarch remain sovereign?

[warandwar]

Would an independent Costalonia be a Republic or will the Spanish monarch remain sovereign?

I'd think republic hands down.

[jmlv]

Republic with no doubt. The Bourbons would not be popular because they abolished the Catalonian institutions 3 centuries ago.

[fivex]

Just to be clear:
Is it correct that this election is effectively acting as an independence referendum, such that if the result is majority pro-independence then Catalonia will seriously go towards independence?
If so, it's probably a good idea to mention that in the OP.

[jmlv]

That is what Junts pel Si claims. There is no legal basis for that. formally it is just as any other election. Informally, that is what the coalition Junts pel Si (where Artur Mas is) wants.

[Velasco]

Hi. There's no issue with a single thread. To the contrary, this election is relevant enough to deserve its own discusion. The point to merge it in the Spain's general thread was only convenience, as Crab said. There's no enough people interested in Spanish affairs on here, which is not strange given that this is an Anglo forum. I have neither the time nor the interest to follow the Catalan and the Spanish campaigns -basically real life concerns, besides political affairs weariness-, but I'm lurking on this board once a week or so. Just a couple of tips:

Interview with Junts pel Sí (proxy) candidate Raül Romeva (Hardtalk, BBC September 9)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34197413

Average polling at Electograph

Together for Yes (Junts pel Sí) 40.2%

Ciutadans (C's) 14.9%

Catalunya Sí que es Pot 11.7%

PSC 11%

PP 9.6%

CUP 6.9%

UDC 2.8%

http://www.electograph.com/p/encuesta-de-encuestas-cataluna.html

[jmlv]

My guess is that Junts pel Si will not get as much, but CUP might do. The pro-independece will win in seats but not in votes. That is because the less populated provinces are overrepresented and Barcelona, where independentism is not so strong, is underrepresented

[Simfan34]

My guess is that Junts pel Si will not get as much, but CUP might do. The pro-independece will win in seats but not in votes. That is because the less populated provinces are overrepresented and Barcelona, where independentism is not so strong, is underrepresented

Curiously, Junts pel Si has said that they'll issue a UDI if they get a majority of seats, even if they fail to win the popular vote.

[jmlv]

Yes, exactly, they claim that.

On the contrary, CUP has said that they would not support it as merely based on seats. (And also that they would not support Artur Mas as President).

And Junts pel Si will probably need CUP.

[jmlv]

Big mistake today of Rajoy in an interview in the radio: Rajoy said that in an independent Catalonia, the Catalans would lose the Spanish nationality. The journalist had to remind him that the nationality is not lost since they are Spaniards of origin. Quite embarrasing for the President.

[Simfan34]

Big mistake today of Rajoy in an interview in the radio: Rajoy said that in an independent Catalonia, the Catalans would lose the Spanish nationality. The journalist had to remind him that the nationality is not lost since they are Spaniards of origin. Quite embarrasing for the President.

So they would all remain Spanish nationals even in the case of independence? That seems odd. From what little I know of nationality law, I believe nationals of newly independent states usually cease to be citizens of the state from which they gained independence. There may be some kind of "opt-in" in some cases, but my inclination is to believe that citizenship is something that would have to be negotiated between Spain and a Catalonian government, as opposed to being a given. I wouldn't say that Rajoy was wrong, but I wouldn't say he was necessarily correct, either... it would depend on what would be agreed upon.

Yes, exactly, they claim that.

On the contrary, CUP has said that they would not support it as merely based on seats. (And also that they would not support Artur Mas as President).

And Junts pel Si will probably need CUP.

I don't know if JpS+CUP will have enough seats between them for a majority-- I know they've ticked up in the polls, though. If they fall short, they'll have to turn to the Sí Que És Pot bloc, and I've heard mixed things about them. On one hand, I've read that they support "Catalans' right to self-determination", and will back a referendum, but not unilateral independence. On the other hand, I've seen them characterised elsewhere as "soft independentist" and potentially supportive of a UDI. I don't know which one is correct.

The thing that keeps me following this is what happens after a secessionist victory, and moves beyond the normal (and boring) electoral politics you have almost everywhere in the West these days and really start to get exciting, if not entirely pleasant for the people involved. (Why do you think I am so interested in Thai politics? )

As I've posted in the thread in the IGP section, Rajoy would immediately denounce any UDI as illegal and move to suspend the regional-cum-separatist Generalitat. This would involve ordering the police to arrest those involved in illegal acts (i.e., the cabinet and others); from what I've read, however, it appears highly unlikely that the Catalan regional police, the Mossos d'Esquadra (which translates as "Squad Laddies"-- seriously!), who are immediately responsible to the Generalitat, not to mention Catalans themselves, would do such a thing. This would necessitate calling in the National Police and/or Civil Guard, who are under the direct control of the central government, to make the arrests.

This is where things could start to go pear-shaped. If the Catalonian government decides that they'd rather not be arrested, they could order the Mossos to block any attempt to detain them. This would directly confronting the Spanish forces, but I can't imagine either side going as far as to use force-- it's far more likely there would be a standoff between the two sides, the Mossos saying "¡No pasarán!", if you would. But any such scene is overwhelmingly likely to be played against a backdrop of mass protests, which could make things confusing for the Mossos-- having to keep the peace within the region and possibly contain riots whilst simultaneously having to oppose the central government. At this point Rajoy would almost certainly proclaim Catalonia to be in a state of insurrection, and call in the Armed Forces to restore order, at which point all bets are off.

Unsurprisingly, the separatist side is eager to avoid such dramatic confrontation. The JpS "roadmap" to independence is now said to be as follows:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

By stretching out the timeframe for a UDI to a year and a half, the separatists would likely avoid direct confrontation with Madrid until long after the December elections, by which time-- so one imagines they assume-- a left-leaning coalition will have taken office, which would presumably be far more amenable to a negotiated settlement than Rajoy and the PP.*  But such an outcome is not assured, as a PP-led coalition remains a very real possibility, and there would be significant resistance from certain corners-- unionists on the left, the civil service, the business community, and, perhaps most significantly, the Armed Forces-- to any accord with a separatist administration in Catalonia. Alternatively, Rajoy could choose to strike before the elections on one pretext or another, even without a UDI, in order to prevent any successor government from negotiating secession, and/or possibly generate a "rally around the flag" effect to win him the election and do the above.

I have gotten excited about Catalonia before, only to be disappointed (even if it almost certainly was for the best). The separatist bloc could very well fail to win a majority in the Parliament, and nothing would happen; life would carry on as usual, and the threat of secession would likely fade. That too would likely be the best outcome, but, if nothing else, it would be boring. We'll just have to wait and see.

*There is a reason, after all, that, as in Germany, there is "no established party" to the right of the PP; however, unlike Germany, it is not because such a party would be morally repulsive to the general public. Likewise, it is not for a lack of potential sympathisers that there exists no major post-authoritarian party in Spain, as is the case in other former authoritarian states, as the PP-- through its openly "post-Francoist" predecessor, Fraga's "Alianza Popular"-- is that party in all but name. The marginal role accorded to the Falange and the tendentially anti-ideological direction of Francoism also have something to do with it, but that's beside the point.

[jmlv]

Rajoy proved to know very little about the Constitution and the Civil code. Even if Catalonia declares its independenxe, their citizens would remain Spanish nationals (unless they decided otherwise, individually). There are cases in Spain qhere courts even acknowledged the nationality of people from Western Sahara. They are Spaniars of origin.

Catalunya si que es pot is in favor of a referendum, not of independence. They would in any case npt support a government with Mas and CDC around because they are antiausterity. Catalunya si que es pot is basically Podemos and the United Left of Catalonia.

I do not think there will be arrests or anything like that. the Spanish government will simply appeal before the Constitutional Court an UDI.

[Velasco]

Catalunya si que es pot is basically Podemos and the United Left of Catalonia.

Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds (ICV) + Podemos + EUiA (IU in Catalonia) + independents

Some people tend to forget that ICV and IU are different organisations since 1997. ICV and IU/EUiA run together in Catalonia -as well in Spanish and EU elections- since 2003, but they are just an electoral coalition.

It's interesting your explanation, Simfan. Personally, the independence "drive" or "process" makes me feel tired and bored. Rather, I feel empathy with those undecided Catalans trapped in no man's land. The polarisation is reaching ridicolous levels; it's better going to the beach.   

[jmlv]

Some parties, like Catalunya si que es Pot and PSC try to discuss other politics, like social issues, unemployment and the cuts developed by the governments of Mas (who is hidden fourth in the list of Junts pel Si). That would in principle be a good argument for them (specially for CatSiQP) to break the polarization independence/not independence. However they seem to be unsuccesful. Maybe the candidate of CatSiQP was not the best choice as he seems not to engage people enough.