Croatia parliamentary election - November 8, 2015

[Halgrímur]

Revised exit poll:

HDZ 57
SDP 56
Most 17
HDSSB 2
IDS 3
Živi Zid 3
MB365 2

Most will be kingmakers. With the 3 expat seats HDZ + Most is 77, SDP + Most 73 (76 with IDS). All the small SDP coalition partners are out.

[Halgrímur]

Constituency breakdown (based on the first exit poll, which had Most 1 higher and HDZ one lower):

1. SDP 7, HDZ 4, Most 3

2.HDZ 6, SDP 5. Most 2, Milan Bandić 365 1

3. SDP 8, HDZ 4, Most 1, Živi zid 1

4.HDZ 6, SDP 5, HDSSB 2, Most 1

5. HDZ 8, SDP 4, Most 2

6. SDP 6, HDZ 6, Most 1. Miland Bandić 365 1

7. SDP 6, HDZ 5, Most 2, Živi Zid 1

8. SDP 7, IDS 3, HDZ 2, Most 1. Živi Zid 1

9. HDZ 8, SDP 4, Most 2

10. HDZ 7, SDP 4, Most 3

So Most gets seats everywhere. Really a breakthrough.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatian_Parliament_electoral_districts

I Zagreb
II Bjelovar
III Varaždin
IV Osijek
V Slavonski Brod
VI Sisak
VII Karlovac
VIII Pazin
IX Zadar
X Split

[Halgrímur]

The refugee crisis has been a double-edged sword for HDZ. It help rally their base, but likely also meant some right wing voters were reluctant to vote for a party that more or less guaranteed a confrontational relationship with Serbia and Bosnia - necessary partners in solving the crisis. The rise of Most is influenced by this (but also of course secular middle class Conservatives protesting the "culture war" against unpatriotic artists and the Serb minority etc.).

There has been several attempts to launch a Western style, secular and non-nationalist Conservative party in Croatia, and they have all flopped, but now it has finally happened. Even if it is a fairly loose alliance.

[Halgrímur]

I'm sure that its also totally impossible that Croatia has historically (=every election but 2011) had high turnout, and spending 2 seconds on wikipedia would make it obvious that 2011 was always a complete outlier. Oh, wait.

Certainly higher than 2011, but never really high.

The increasing duopoly with a choice between SoCon Nationalists and Titoists turned many voters off, but it seems Most have at least mobilized the secular, moderate right, whereas many left wing voters are still homeless despite various attempts. ORaH has had its shot and failed.

[Halgrímur]

The 8 reserved minority seats are:

Serbs 3 (currently all held by the Independent Democratic Serb Party)
Italians 1
Hungarians 1
Czechs & Slovaks 1
Bosniaks, Slovenians, Montenegrins, Macedonians and Albanians (this seat will invariably go to the Bosniak Democratic Party) 1
Other minorities (Germans, Ukrainians, Ruthenians, Romanians, Russians, Turks, Jews, Roma, Poles) 1

Recent migrant groups do not vote for the minority seats, just historical minorities.

Only Serbs and Bosniaks have their own minority parties and the other four seats will go to minority candidates from Croatian parties, but the anti-minority positions of the Patriotic Alliance means they are unlikely to get seats.

[Halgrímur]

This is going to be interesting. Most has said they won't enter any coalition, so it will be outside support of the first minority government in Croatian history and its still an open question, who they will prefer - probably simply the "highest bidder".

Their leader Bozo Petrov (Mayor of the Dalmatian town Metkovic) is going to be the kingmaker and his price will be high.

[Halgrímur]

new count gives 1 seat to Uspešna Hrvatska (Succesfull Croatia...)

What a Succes

[Halgrímur]

There is also the question of homogenity of Most...

Yeah, the bridge could easily break.

[Halgrímur]

To add a bit of context to the Petrov quote from before:

Mosts main priorities are reforms of what they (and most others) see as a bloated public sector and for a better business climate.

Bozo Petrov has stated the party would support a future government if it reforms the judiciary and public administration + improve the business climate.

"For each of those reforms we would set deadlines and if deadlines were not met, we would demand a parliamentary no-confidence vote. We know that, as things stand now, we control the majority in the parliament ... A new election is much cheaper than an incapable government."

[Halgrímur]

50% counted.

Patriotic Coalition 61
Croatian is Growing 53
MOST 19  
IDS 4
HDSSB 2
MB365 2
Human Blockade 1
Successful Croatia 1

This gives 143, so incl. ex-pats.

http://izbori.hrt.hr/307553/rezultati-izbora-za-zastupnike-u-hrvatski-sabor

[Halgrímur]

It is clear that ORaH did not pass the threshold and party president Mirela Holy has already announced that she will not run for party leader again.

SDP leader Zoran Milanović was the first to address the nation and did not congratulate the relative winner HDZ.

"Croatia decided we're not returning to the old ways. Which way it will turn, we will see in the next few days. In the last four years, especially in the last few months, we have shown our humanity, that we have created an organised country that protects its citizens. I invite all those that wish to implement reforms to join us, and we don't invite them as leaders, but as equal partners. We can't do this on our own, we need partners. No conditions, we just want to talk. Now we see that MOST has emerged and they want reforms so I invite them to implement them together"

So he is still hopeful that MOST will pick him and the centre-left over HDZ.

[Halgrímur]

86.33% counted. The distance between the two alliances has shrunk from 8 to 5. Difference to last count in ().

Patriotic Coalition 60 (-1)
Croatia is Growing 55 (+2)
MOST 19 
IDS 4
HDSSB 2
MB365 1 (-1)
Human Blockade 1
Successful Croatia 1