After 2004 Presidential Election..

[jamestroll]

How would you react if someone told you that in a near future election:

Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania would vote for the Republican candidate while the Republican candidate lost the national popular vote?

Missouri would vote 19 points for the Republican candidate?

Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada would be states that voted for the Democratic candidate while losing the electoral college.

Texas and Ohio would vote roughly the same way?

We are absolutely more polarized than in the past. A candidate winning the popular vote by Reagan's margin would not win 49 states today. But things can and do change. Candidates and circumstances do matter.

Which is why I am not ready to say Trump is DOA in 2020 or that the Democrats will take the house in 2018 or that all Trump state Democrats are DOA in 2018. Oh, and I won't say that the rust belt is gone for the Democrats either. Especially given the circumstances of this election victory. Ironically, 2020 could resemble 2012 quite a bit. Except I would think Georgia, North Carolina and even Arizona may all go Democratic if it is  a DEM wave  year.

[Crumpets]

In 2004, it would probably be less startling than it was on election night 2016. 1988-2008 was a period with a significant amount of electoral map fluctuation compared to what we've been seeing recently, so unless something seemed to be a Massachusetts/Wyoming style safe state and was competitive by 2016, none of the lean states would have surprised me too much. What would have astounded me was that the Democrats could lose nationally while only losing Texas by single digits.

[twenty42]

I think the overriding and most important lesson of the 2016 election is that we should stop declaring these permanent electoral locks and talking about how silly/impossible certain events are.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How would you react if someone told you that in a near future election:

Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania would vote for the Republican candidate while the Republican candidate lost the national popular vote?

Missouri would vote 19 points for the Republican candidate?

Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada would be states that voted for the Democratic candidate while losing the electoral college.

Texas and Ohio would vote roughly the same way?

We are absolutely more polarized than in the past. A candidate winning the popular vote by Reagan's margin would not win 49 states today. But things can and do change. Candidates and circumstances do matter.

Which is why I am not ready to say Trump is DOA in 2020 or that the Democrats will take the house in 2018 or that all Trump state Democrats are DOA in 2018. Oh, and I won't say that the rust belt is gone for the Democrats either. Especially given the circumstances of this election victory. Ironically, 2020 could resemble 2012 quite a bit. Except I would think Georgia, North Carolina and even Arizona may all go Democratic if it is  a DEM wave  year.

I would have thought the ticket was like Warner/Richardson for Dems and the GOP had an popular Ohio governor on top of the ticket / a Florida senator at bottom of ticket