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I had a lot of travel in May. First a short trip to CO. Then a long trip out west.

AR (3/4): 1,2,4
CA (22/52): 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,12,14,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,25,27,28,33,41
CO (2/8): 2,3
IL (17/17): 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17
IN (4/9): 1,2,3,5
KY (1/6): 1
LA (6/6): 1,2,3,4,5,6
MI (1/13): 5
MS (3/4): 1,3,4
MO (6/8): 1,2,3,4,7,8
NJ (1/12): 8
NY (6/26): 5,6,7,10,12,14
OH (1/15): 9
OK (5/5): 1,2,3,4,5
OR (3/6): 2,3,4
TN (1/9): 8
TX (25/38): 1,2,7,8,9,10,11,13,14,15,17,18,19,29,21,22,23,24,25,27,28,29,31,35,36
WA (1/10): 9
WI (2/8): 1,2

Total 81 110

Does this mean Biden can order Trump to be executed and not be held liable for the crime?

QU and Marist already had Biden ahead, this will just extend his lead, his average was 2/3 pts now it's 5/7 and if it's closer to 5/7 we can get a blue wave going it's still a longshot but FL and TX and OH and NC, I put them on my map ANYWAYS

No, still Biden

Donnelly is resigning as Ambassador to the Vatican (can anyone explain why that is its own diplomatic posting instead of a dual role for the Ambassador to Italy? We have a dual Ambassador for New Zealand and Samoa).

The Vatican City is significantly more important than Samoa.

Some people would dispute that. Samoa is important as concerns Pacific naval security and right next to U.S. possession American Samoa (so obviously we don't want them to be friends with China).

What does the Ambassador to the Vatican do all day? What does the office of the Ambassador do all day? There's no visa processing to worry about.

I get it's a plum job and you get to live in Rome, it's questionable whether it should exist as concerns government efficiency.

The cost of paying for one ambassador is a drop in the bucket compared to the benefits of having a direct line and close relations with the Catholic Church. Meanwhile Samoa is entirely irrelevant to naval security as it has no suitable deepwater anchorages for modern warships. There's a reason America holds control of only eastern Samoa - Pago Pago Harbor is one of the largest and deepest natural ports in the world.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1796596928945238441

Nah, the shy effect will go to Biden at this point.

You have to keep quiet if you're even vaguely left of the far right in many settings these days. It's the only way to keep the peace. I don't talk about anything other than the weather around certain people, because otherwise it'll cause a meltdown. If you even mention a movie that has the wrong color person in it around a conservative then get ready for an idiotic rant about the woke menace or something stupid. Trump supporters aren't shy anymore, they shove their politics into everything. It's been a dramatic cultural shift.

This isn’t true . From what I have seen , liberals are far more likely to bring up politics in a work or professional environment while conservatives are more likely to keep quiet about it .

I haven't heard someone bring up politics at work in years.

The interesting thing is how Donald Trump convinced many Americans who recognize that there are 'two Americas' to support him.

This isn't really a surprise based on what Lyndon Johnson said, however, there will continue to be 'two Americas' as long as that's the case.

Lyndon Johnson
“If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you.”

Trump didn't neccsarily win more working class white voters though. https://as.vanderbilt.edu/news/2020/07/29/political-science-research-debunks-myths-about-white-working-class-support-for-trump/

https://www.vanderbilt.edu/unity/2021/04/15/trump-didnt-bring-white-working-class-voters-to-the-republican-party-he-kept-them-away/

" That is, until 2020. Last year's data suggest that after Trump's term in office, the rate of white working-class support for the Republican presidential candidate fell for the first time since 2008 - and possibly even earlier, depending on which data source we use. Trump's presidency actually reversed the long-term trend of growing GOP support within this voting bloc."

What terrible scholarship. In every place with a high proportion of working-class Whites, Trump gained massively over Romney. Ohio swung 10 points, Michigan swung 10 points, Wisconsin swung 7 points! There had been a broad, longer term trend to the GOP, but Trump accentuated it. The paper clearly was looking for the conclusion that Trump didn't gain especially with these groups, but it's the obvious story of the 2016 election. The authors claim they can't make clear conclusions from small sample sizes, ignoring the irrefutable election results.

The appeal process won’t start until he is sentenced in July. The appeal won’t be decided until after the election.

So in theory, the conviction could tank his candidacy. But then months later his appeal is overturned, and the reason for his defeat in the election looks more and more like election interference - lost because of the conviction, only for the conviction to be over turned after the election, surely everyone sees that that’s not fair.

My prediction? Trump will lose support in the polls for a few weeks, but I expect him to rebound. Trump is lucky this trial didn’t take place in October.

Isn't this likely just in preparation for a run as West Virginia Gov, as is rumored? It would certainly make it easier for him to win.

It's possible although it's one of the weakest governorships in the country and mostly just a ceremonial office. Wouldn't give him much besides the attention... actually that's probably all he cares about.