Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Eraserhead]

I'm resigned to the inevitability of Gallup being way too good for McCain later today. He will be President-elect this time next week, on that I'm absolutely 100% certain

Dave

While I'm sure many would love to see that happen, I think it is premature to start crowning someone the winner.  Polling, especially in 2008, is as reliable as a used car from the classifieds.  

Dave.... seriously, breathe.

I'm worried by the degree to which McCain is closing, and will be beyond horrfied if McCain/Palin actually manages to have won... but there is a lot of unpredictable elements, we simply don't know.

Also to suggest McCain/Palin is more likely to win than not is still, at this point, pretty silly... let alone saying they have 100% chance of victory.

[Eraserhead]

Enough with "Christian Democrat" thing, Dave. You're like a broken record.

Personally, I'm still hoping he's a closet athiest/non-religious, but that's me.

[Eraserhead]

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

RV
Obama: 51% (+1)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 49%
McCain: 46% (-1)


Tightening my ass...

Maybe Dave can take Bob Dylan's advice and take the rag away from his face now.

[Eraserhead]

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

RV
Obama: 50% (-1)
McCain: 42% (nc)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 50% (+1)
McCain: 45% (-1)

Awesome.

[Eraserhead]

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

RV
Obama: 50% (-1)
McCain: 42% (nc)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 50% (+1)
McCain: 45% (-1)

This should be troubling to McCain supporters.

Uhh, it should?

Are you completely divorced from reality or this just an act?

[Eraserhead]

This should be showing some of the impact of the infomercial. I wish Rasmussen was showing the same thing but whatever... this is awesome.

[Eraserhead]

Torie is a cool guy and a realist.

[Eraserhead]

Friday, October 31st, 2008

RV
Obama: 52% (+2)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 52% (+1)
McCain: 43% (-1)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 51% (+1)
McCain: 43% (-2)

Not very often I nowadays but this warrants one! Then Planet Zogby struck ...........

... and you take Zogby seriously?

[Eraserhead]

... and you take Zogby seriously?

I may if the other pollsters point to Friday 31st showing a similar trend. That said The Drudge points out that the three-day average is holding steady

Nate's got it up now but points out that one day results can be highly volatile and the Zogster uses nonsensical party weighting

Dave

The man is a goddamned liar, dude.

[Eraserhead]

What a comeback by McCain, to be down double digits.

If John McCain posted on the Atlas...atleast he wouldn't have frickin' hieroglyphics as his screenname. He's coming back...GET OVER IT!

Well he better get on that "coming back" strategy of his because the polls open in like 70 hours.

He actually is, which is why we've been discussing PA. 

Yep, candidates down double digits in the Gallup poll often win the election. Yup, yup.

[Eraserhead]

From Gallup:

"While only 4% of voters remain undecided in Gallup's unallocated likely voter model, the final poll estimates that a slightly larger 10% of likely voters still have the potential to either change their mind or make up their mind. Even if McCain converts the vast majority of swing voters, victory for him would be highly unlikely since 51% of likely voters say they are certain to vote for Obama compared with 39% who say they are sure they will vote for McCain."

Ouch.

[Eraserhead]

wow. Just... wow.