France 2012: the official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Retaliation is a sin .

See, life is much easier when you aren't a christian.

But anyways that's by no way what I wish, don't take me wrong. Le Pen doesn't deserve half of his father's 1974 score.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Almost certainly, yeah. Actually, she is likely to break his father's record whether or not she is actually qualified, mostly due to less vote split.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So yeah, that's it. Either DSK or it's a coin toss for the PS. On other circumstances a gamble could have been possible, but not after 5 years of Sarkozy. So my choice is made.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I admit I feel pretty ashamed to be young after reading these numbers.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.

*facepalm*

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, really. Julio, if you like Royal you have to learn more about her.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Borloo won't create anything consistent, certainly not a new UDF. The only things he can do is to split the right and weaken Sarkozy (and that's enough for me ).

But the UMP is headed to radicalization, and the ones who will try to oppose this move will be marginalized.

[Antonio the Sixth]

But the UMP is headed to radicalization, and the ones who will try to oppose this move will be marginalized.

They're to UMP, not the GOP.

The UMP will of course never be the GOP, because France is France. But that won't save us from a massive right-wing shift that has already begun.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What I find more annoying is the media playing Villepin up as some sort of 'social Gaullist' in a non-liberal, slightly eurosceptic style. His government's policies were certainly quite 'liberal' and there's nothing 'social gaullist' in him

Yeah, I still fail to see how the man who imagined CPE managed to convert himself into a defender of the "modèle social français". LOL French politics...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good to see DSK still ahead.

Now, for God's sake, please go on and announce your damn candidacy !!!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Borloo and Hulot in the 5-10 range ? LOL

[Antonio the Sixth]

Borloo and Hulot in the 5-10 range ? LOL

That's not bad, considering only Marion "Marine" Le Pen has managed to climb above the 10%.

Without Villepin, Borloo would probably be around 10-12.

I've ceased to be astonished about the people's considerable stupidity : when you consider this factor, Le Pen's vote is easily explainable. On the other hand, Borloo and Hulot are not the kind of candidates who attract the stupid vote (except maybe for a few guys who watch the latter on TV and find him so cool, but that doesn't make 8%).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Were there already any polls showing how much support Marine LePen would get in a run-off against the other candidates ?

For some reason, we haven't had a lot of second round polls for now. Personally, I'd easily see her at 30% against a socialist.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Imagine 2nd round is Segolene X Le Pen. who wins?

Please don't even talk about such a nightmare. The 2007 runoff was already awful enough.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Imagine 2nd round is Segolene X Le Pen. who wins?

Please don't even talk about such a nightmare. The 2007 runoff was already awful enough.

but... who wins? I think Royal wins (with big bad fab's vote).

Of course she wins... And the left gets a narrow margin in legislative elections and is headed to a disaster in 2017.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Compared with other polls, Sarkozy is around 3-4 points up. Statistical noise or is he really gaining ground ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Sarkozy is really up... For visiting a couple of factories and promising a 1000€ gift to a handful of people ?

As I've said, stupidity shouldn't surprise me anymore at this point. But...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, Borloo, Villepin, Bayrou &co... I know they're pretty weak compared to past candidates, but adding their vote they are a big handicap to Sarko. Of course a couple of their voters may go to the left otherwise, but still a majority clearly favors the right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, thats quite surprising. Mélenchon and Besancenot, really ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So now we have the "Porschegate"... And of course the first to denounce this horrible scandal are DSK's socialist "friends".

Stupid, stupid, stupid French politics.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BUT the great horrible news is that DSK bonus seems to have vanished.

Fixed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Would be nice, yeah. I could make a chart too if you provide the data.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what's this "Porschegate"?

DSK photographed driving a Porsche (which wasn't even his, in the end). French people tend to think left-wingers don't have the right to be wealthy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fivethirtyeight, french version !

I'll try to build some nice graph with a trendline when we have some more data. Maybe your methodology isn't 100% scientific, but it makes enough sense.

It's not just the French, no-one likes a champagne socialist.

Of course. People always prefer a neoliberal hack who act like rednecks, to a guy who are not ashamed to live comfortably and whose policies whould actually help the poor.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Who is the closest to Mitterrand "in his ideas and proposals" ? (don't ask me to whom "his" refers...)

In his "ideas and proposals" ? Haha, good one. Does this refer to the 1971's Mitterrand who wanted "rupture with capitalism", or the old wise guy who campaigned for a "united France" in 1988 ?

Basically one could pick anyone on this list and it would make some sense.

It's not just the French, no-one likes a champagne socialist.

Of course. People always prefer a neoliberal hack who act like rednecks, to a guy who are not ashamed to live comfortably and whose policies whould actually help the poor.

No, the Right prefer that. The Left prefer socialists that help the poor but tend to be understandably turned off by socialists that live too comfortably, parading their opulent purchases (see: Two Jags). So neither side are enthused by champagne socialists, yet the neoliberal redneck doesn't alienate his vote.

In France we've gone far beyond the fact of "parading opulent purchases". It's actually the media who recklessly search for any sign of wealth among every politician.
I deeply despise ostentatory consumption and I think a politician who is always trying to show how "succesful" he is, is unworthy to be elected to anything. But I also think there's nothing wrong with being wealthy whatever your political opinions are.