Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Blackacre]

I'd love to see more state-level approval polling, especially in Ohio and Indiana

[Blackacre]

The big takeaway here is that Ohio and Indiana aren't converging as much as it may have seemed.

[Blackacre]

Some states are acting... weird. MT and WV fluctuate between being Trump's best states and either being tied (WV) or just barely approving (MT). This is the second time Ive seen WV in white on this thread actually.

Also, whats with FL? Trump barely won it, but it's closer to states he won comfortably (TX, SC) than other states he barely won (MI, PA, WI)

[Blackacre]

Some states are acting... weird. MT and WV fluctuate between being Trump's best states and either being tied (WV) or just barely approving (MT). This is the second time Ive seen WV in white on this thread actually.

Also, whats with FL? Trump barely won it, but it's closer to states he won comfortably (TX, SC) than other states he barely won (MI, PA, WI)

Florida was rather close to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Presidential vote in 2016. Donald Trump played on economic distress in the Rust Belt, but he has since done little for the Rust Belt. Voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin think they have been had. They wanted a populist and got someone who acts like a bad aristocrat instead. Florida is not so blatant. 52% disapproval (and at this stage I am looking at disapproval numbers -- I saw through him before the election, and I live in Michigan) may not be as horrid as 57% in Michigan, but it is still awful in a legitimate swing state. It's like hearing that the temperature in International Falls is -44 but 'only' -26 in Minneapolis. -26 is quite unpleasant, too.    

I'm paying more attention to disapproval numbers... and the oddity is that such states as Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas are going so sharply away from Trump. With Texas, this could be the rapid growth of the Hispanic (largely Mexican-American) electorate. See also Arizona, and look at how sharply Colorado is turning against him. As a candidate, Donald Trump said some nasty things about Mexico that will not quickly be forgotten. I need not restate the words. If you are a Mexican-American or you are married to a Mexican-American, then those words sting.  

Speaking of states with large Mexican-American populations in the Southwest:

California used to be reliably Republican as late as 1988, although Reagan landslides may have covered the D trend in the state from the 1960s. New Mexico used to be reliably Republican, then iffy as a state could be (splitting in two close elections in 2000 and 2004); it now votes more like Massachusetts than like Arizona or Texas. Nevada is much the same. Colorado was a tough win for Democrats until 2008, about like Virginia. Colorado and Virginia look like near-twins in their voting despite great differences in heritage... which is now a disaster for the GOP.

Arizona and Texas swung heavily against the GOP in the last Presidential election. But let us remember: here is how Donald Trump goes in some swing states or potential swing states. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will go back to voting as they did for Obama for the next Democratic nominee.  

New Hampshire 64
Minnesota 62
Michigan 57
Wisconsin 57
Pennsylvania 55
Utah 55
Georgia 54
Arizona 53
Nevada 53
Texas 53
Florida 52
Iowa 52
Ohio 52
North Carolina 50

This is all really, really bad news. I'm not sure that any Democratic nominee has a chance of winning Utah because... well, the state is Utah. But a strong Third-Party nominee with the backing of the LDS Church could be big trouble for him.

The others?

In the Mountain South and the Deep South, President Trump is beginning to seem like a really-obnoxious d@mnyankee. In the High Plains, he is reminding people of a stereotypical city-slicker.
OK, so Obama was brainy, bit at least he had some decencies.

You see it from me first: I see portents of Donald Trump losing the 2020  Presidential election much as Jimmy Carter did in 1980 or Herbert Hoover did in 1932 even before there is an economic, military, or diplomatic disaster. He made promises that he can never keep. He appealed to Christian fundamentalists in his opposition to godless liberalism, yet he has pro0ved the most godless man to ever be President. He is not at all effective as President whether one likes or dislikes his agenda. He acts out of spite, which is bad leadership in any activity.

Now here is another possibility: the political polarization which went to the extreme with Barack Obama, not so much for the usual Left-Right split (Obama was quite conservative on law and order and on national defense and foreign policy, and stood as rigidly as anyone on legal precedent as anyone), or regional affiliation may be abating. In 2008 Obama won with margins like those of Ronald Reagan in some states and  lost with margins like those of George McGovern in others. No President had ever been elected while losing as badly as Obama did in 2008 in his worst twenty states. Yes, Republicans could lose every former Confederate state and still get elected -- and lose those states by 90-10 margins because those states had about as much political competition as the Soviet Union had. (The Democratic Party was not a democratic Party in most Southern states).  

Could it be race? Sure, we know about the South -- but Obama won Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida in 2008 and was competitive in Georgia. But I doubt that the High Plains states are any more 'racist' than New England.

Here's my suggestion for the next Democratic nominee for President: be as much like Obama as possible in agenda (except to address poverty, the Big Problem in America) and character -- but just lay off the melanin!

You only say follies and fantasies, hillary and pelosi are less popular than trump, their disapproval never means that people vote for a democrat.
Come on, they won all the special elections. (It's sarcasm)

@prower: That's true, Florida is a traditional swing state and MI/WI/PA might just be reverting to form. But I'm looking more at the approval numbers than the disapproval numbers, and Florida's looking weird in that respect because it's closer to Texas and SC than NC and PA. But still, you make solid points. 

KS and NE still surprise me though. Obama was competitive in different Mountain states (MT, the twin Dakotas) than the ones that are turning on Trump now. I find it fascinating

@Daniel: HRC isnt doing herself any favors, but she's fading into irrelevance anyway and won't be a factor in 2020. As for Pelosi, well, congressional leaders are always less popular than the President. McConnell and Ryan are just as despised as she is. Boehner and McConnell always polled worse than Obama. And regarding the special elections, the margin matters more than the result. Every House special election thus far has been in a traditionally safe seat, and they've moved several points to the Dems

[Blackacre]

I wonder what will happen in the next few weeks when tax reform will be in the headlines. Trump is going to 13 states to push for it.

Theoretically, it could raise his approval among republicans.

tax reform needs 60 votes

Trump is terrible at making deals...he aint getting 60 votes

Don't be so sure. There have always been a few democrats willing to vote for tax reform under a GOP prez. We saw it happen under reagan and bush II.

Only vulnerable Dems will vote vote for tax reform...Heitekamp, O Donnely, Manchin, McCaskill....maybe Nelson? That's still only 57 votes at most

Depends of course on Trump's approval in those states and especially how the tax bill polls there. Capito was a thorn in Trump's side during much of the ACA repeal bizz bc all the replacement bills polls horribly in WV

[Blackacre]

I wonder what will happen in the next few weeks when tax reform will be in the headlines. Trump is going to 13 states to push for it.

Theoretically, it could raise his approval among republicans.

tax reform needs 60 votes

Trump is terrible at making deals...he aint getting 60 votes

Don't be so sure. There have always been a few democrats willing to vote for tax reform under a GOP prez. We saw it happen under reagan and bush II.

Totally different era. Trump's not going to see any Democrats ( certainly not 8 ) break with the party to support him on a big ideological litmus test issue like this.

Ah, the accidental emoji. FTFY

[Blackacre]

Tax reform will cause suburb gop to trend d

Can't wait to have MI, PA, WI, and IA back in the Democratic column!

We have three of the dreariest years in American history in which to wait.

For you they will be bad but for true Americans they will not be. 8 years of a weak corrupt and parasitic government, now it's your turn to cry like us.

Yes, we lived through 8 years of a a weak corrupt and parasitic government. It ended in 2009.

[Blackacre]

For you they will be bad but for true Americans they will not be. 8 years of a weak corrupt and parasitic government, now it's your turn to cry like us.

...

I've seen you use that particular quote a lot. You should make it your signature!

[Blackacre]

You can't simultaneously call a pollster "trash" and then say their poll is "worth nothing" in the same sentence.

Sure you can! They mean the same thing!

...sorry, I know that was a typo but I could not resist.

[Blackacre]

Otherwise, more critical voices would've called out against the failure of Gitmo closure, or the stimulus which was too small, etc.

Are we just going to ignore that Guantanamo only has 41 prisoners in it today, when it had well over 200 when Obama took office? Reducing Gitmo prisoners by over 80% is a massive accomplishment when you have to individually negotiate and find a place for every single prisoner.

Also the stimulus was the biggest it could be in order to get passed. Maybe it would have been bigger if Franken arrived earlier, but it really couldn't wait for the recount to end. That's not Obama's fault.

[Blackacre]

also, Im guessing the more educated and younger Republicans are of the "socially moderate, fiscally conservative" variety. Trump's support with those kinds of Republicans was always tenuous at best

[Blackacre]

Half of the Americans do not know about Puerto Rico and honestly a large part considers them an economic burden

We help our fellow Americans, even if they're economic burdens. That's kind of the whole point. If a hurricane hit Mississippi, we're not going to say they shouldn't be helped because "they're an economic burden." That's just ludicrous. Puerto Ricans are Americans, that's all that matters.

[Blackacre]

Half of the Americans do not know about Puerto Rico and honestly a large part considers them an economic burden

We help our fellow Americans, even if they're economic burdens. That's kind of the whole point. If a hurricane hit Mississippi, we're not going to say they shouldn't be helped because "they're an economic burden." That's just ludicrous. Puerto Ricans are Americans, that's all that matters.

Yes. But for once Daniel is right. Most americans and certainly republicans probably don't give two sh*ts about Puerto Rico.

Polling has shown that Americans are more likely to support aid for Puerto Rico when they know that Puerto Ricans were U.S. Citizens

[Blackacre]

It's probably an outlier, but outliers have been right before. It's worth taking into account

[Blackacre]

Pennsylvania

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http://abc27.com/2017/10/09/poll-finds-low-approval-ratings-for-wolf-casey-trump/

http://abc27.com/spr-fall-2017-pa-statewide-omnibus-poll/

I insist about registered voters since I read Doug Sosnik's opinion about Trump's re-election.

Okay, ouch. What's their beef with Casey?