Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

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Judging by the polls I'd say Liberals will gain probably all the seats in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Judging by the 2011 results, St. John's East is one of the absolute safest NDP seats in the country. (It's more of a Jack Harris riding than an NDP riding, but so long as he's running it is absolutely safe).

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Judy Foote and Scott Simms declared reelected!

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Judy Foote and Scott Simms declared reelected!

Gudie Hutchings elected. Liberals 3, all others 0.

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Mark Eyking (Lib) defeated the Conservatives by 40-38 in 2011. He's won the first poll in Nova Scotia with 72% of the vote.

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At least Conservatives are leading in one seat -- Tobique. For some background, this was the only riding in Atlantic Canada the Reformists/the CA targeted, in 1997 and 2000.

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Libs lead all Atlantic ridings but St. John's North, Tobique, and Fundy Royal -- including Acadie, Halifax, and Sackville. Safe NDP seats falling to the Liberals left and right.

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Liberals have carried Acadie, where Yvon Godin retired, and Sackville, where they have defeated Peter Stoffer. Megan Leslie and Jack Harris both trail, but no calls in those seats. Cons still competitive (albeit trailing) in 5 New Brunswick seats. Jack Harris, Richard Bragdon, and Rob Moore are all within 5%, but the other ridings are probably soon to be called.

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Four possible non-Liberal seats left in Atlantic Canada: Fundy Royal, New Brunswick Southwest, St. John's East, and Tobique. Liberals lead all 4.

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Liberals knock off John Williamson (Con) in New Brunswick Southwest. 3 uncalled ridings left in Atlantic Canada, Liberals leading all 3: Fundy Royal against Con, St. John's East against NDP, Tobique against Con.

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Liberals gain Tobique from the Conservatives. Two uncalled ridings left in Atlantic Canada: Fundy Royal against the Cons in New Brunswick, and St. John's East against the NDP in Newfoundland.

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I believe Ruth Ellen Brosseau is the only Quebec NDP MP to be winning by double-digits

EDIT: I missed Alexandre Boulerice. They are the two safest NDP MPs.

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How are Liberals leading in Kelowna-Lake Country? Isn't that one of the most Conservative seats in the BC Interior?

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How are Liberals leading in Kelowna-Lake Country? Isn't that one of the most Conservative seats in the BC Interior?

They are not only leading but the projected winner. Since that riding was created it has been extremely Conservative. This is a huge pickup for the Libs.

Yeah, all the patterns I see make sense; the Liberals have surged in the BC Interior, but for whatever reason the surge seems to have been much, much stronger in this riding than literally anywhere else. Why is that? Also, CBC still has Kelowna as TCTC, although the Libs are up 6 points.

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Justin Trudeau is the Largest Ham I've listened to in a long time.

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Update on Green performance: the Greens exceeded 10% of the vote in 9 ridings around the country. They did this in 6/7 ridings on Vancouver Island (all but North Island-Powell River), and 3 more: Thunder Bay-Superior North, where they had a floor-crossing incumbent in Bruce Hyer, along with Guelph in Ontario and Fredericton in New Brunswick. (The Greens actually also had an incumbent in Quebec, but he was some NDP flotsam elected on the 2011 wave no one had ever heard of who performed roughly like the average Green in Quebec).

These are the 9 ridings in Canada where the Greens exceeded 10%:
Saanich–Gulf Islands, British Columbia: 54.35% (Elizabeth May)
Victoria, British Columbia: 32.98% (Jo-Ann Roberts)
Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke, British Columbia: 19.97% (Frances Litman)
Nanaimo–Ladysmith, British Columbia: 19.70% (Paul Manly) 
Cowichan–Malahat–Langford, British Columbia: 16.98% (Fran Hunt-Jinnouchi) 
Thunder Bay–Superior North, Ontario: 13.82% (Bruce Hyer)
Fredericton, New Brunswick: 12.44% (Mary Lou Babineau)
Courtenay–Alberni, British Columbia: 11.75% (Glenn Sollitt) 
Guelph, Ontario: 11.32% (Gord Miller)

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The Conservatives went up in share of vote in 27 ridings (42 in Quebec) and down in 291.

You mean 47, not 27, yes? And, out of curiosity, where were the 5 ridings outside of Quebec where the Conservatives improved?

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A Conservative victory (in fact, with the same candidate, Bernard Genereux) in Montmagny was overturned by a judicial recount in 2011. Genereux's margin is greater this time, though, and hopefully history won't repeat itself.

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Today's Forum Research opinion poll shows a massive honeymoon commencing for the new Liberal gov't:

Liberal: 55%
CPC: 25%
NDP: 12%
BQ: 4%
Green: 3%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/95187c50-8143-4ff2-ab57-0af551fe3875Federal%20Political%20Issues%20News%20Release%20(2015%2011%2008)%20Forum%20Research.pdf

I know it won't hold, but if it did, how many seats would the Liberals win with 55%? 300+ surely?

So, I was curious as to the answer to this question, so I looked at the province-wide numbers and worked it out under universal swing.

The Liberals obviously maintain every seat in the Atlantic and the North. 35 Liberal.
The Liberals win all but 4 seats in Quebec -- Beauce; Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Levis; Levis-Lotbiniere; and Louis-Saint-Laurent -- all of which vote Conservative. The Bloc and the New Democrats retain no seats in the province. Therefore, the total for Quebec is 74 Liberal, 4 Conservative. Canada-wide total is 99 Liberal, 4 Conservative.
The Liberals win all but 6 seats in Ontario. The Conservatives retain Elgin-Middlesex-London; Lambton-Kent-Middlesex; and Thornhill. The New Democrats retain Essex; Windsor-Tecumseh; and Windsor West. Therefore, the total for Ontario is 115 Liberals, 3 Conservatives, 3 New Democrats. Canada-wide total is 214 Liberals, 7 Conservatives, 3 New Democrats.
I couldn't find province-wide popular vote totals, so to determine the basis for Manitoba+Saskatchewan I just averaged the two together, and worked off the universal swing from that, which may be flawed. In Manitoba, the New Democrats lose both of their seats -- Churchill to the Liberals, and Elmwood, amusingly, to the Conservatives. Rural Conservative margins are large enough in Man/Sas/Alb that no rural seats are lost. The Manitoba total is 8 Liberals, 6 Conservatives. Canada-wide total is 222 Liberals, 13 Conservatives, 3 New Democrats.
In Saskatchewan, the New Democrats lose Desnethe to the Liberals, and Regina-Lewvan to the Conservatives, while retaining Saskatoon West. The Saskatchewan total is 11 Conservatives, 2 Liberals, 1 New Democrat. Canada-wide total is 224 Liberals, 24 Conservatives, 4 New Democrats.
In Alberta, the Liberals win Calgary Confederation off the Conservatives, and there are no other changes. The Alberta total is 28 Conservatives, 5 Liberals, 1 New Democrat. Canada-wide total is 229 Liberals, 52 Conservatives, 5 New Democrats.
In British Columbia, off of their 26-point gain compared to 2015, the Liberals win every seat except, amusingly, Saanich. (Yes, even their disendorsed candidate in Victoria still wins). The British Columbia total is therefore is 41 Liberals, 1 Green. And the all-Canada totals are:

Liberal Party 270
Conservative Party 52
New Democratic Party 5
Green Party 1
Bloc Quebecois 0

The Liberal Party does not eclipse 300 seats, or even come that close to it; Conservative strength in rural Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba is too strong.

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The Liberal Party does not eclipse 300 seats, or even come that close to it; Conservative strength in rural Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba is too strong.

However, in a 55% scenario, I think you're paying short shrift to latent Liberal strength in *urban* AlSaskMan.  Like, to take one example, you're claiming the Cons would claim Elmwood-Transcona from the Dippers; yet you seem to be overlooking the fact that the Liberal candidate was less than five points behind either.  (And less than 10 points separated the three parties in Regina-Lewvan as well.)

My model was universal swing on a province-by-province basis; I'm well aware that 55% would not actually return such a result (and that the swing might be stronger in urban areas than rural ones, leading to seats in Winnipeg and Regina voting Liberal while Liberals waste fewer votes in rural areas). The swing I used for Saskatchewan and Manitoba, based on that Forum poll, was 1% taken away from the Conservatives, 5% taken away from the New Democrats, and 3% added to the Liberals. This does result in Elmwood-Transcona and Regina-Lewvan voting Conservative, even though I doubt either seat would if Liberals were at 55% nationwide. (Similarly, in British Columbia, I think Conservatives would hold on to Prince George, and New Democrats to Victoria, at the expense of greater Liberal margins in Vancouver. But the model I used was a crude universal swing). Gotta stay consistent in your methodology

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They come a bit closer than you think...you've added the numbers wrong. LPC should be at 280 seats in order to give a total of 338 ridings.

You're correct; I mistakenly added 64 rather than 74 Liberal seats from Quebec. The Liberals would have 280 seats, the Conservatives 52, New Democrats 5, and Greens 1. I'm too lazy to go all the way through and change it, and my observations about specific seats still hold.