If Trump gets crushed, what's next for the GOP? (user search)
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  If Trump gets crushed, what's next for the GOP? (search mode)
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Author Topic: If Trump gets crushed, what's next for the GOP?  (Read 2853 times)
Virginiá
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« on: August 02, 2016, 11:53:02 PM »

I imagine there will be a lot of pressure to double down on obstructionism and the tactics of the past 8 years, so as to make gains in 2018. Think about it - if Republicans believe that strategy will deliver a wave, it will be hard to resist, even if it hurts their brand even more. In this context, it might be fair to say the GOP is hitting rock bottom is their addiction to winning elections, no matter the cost.

I just find it difficult at this point to see substantial collaboration between Hillary and Republicans in Congress. I feel they might make some decent deals, but at the same time, this is the GOP who has spent years now trying to convince voters/their base that she is a criminal, and Trump has really ratcheted that up hard. For Republicans to work with her will come off to their voters as them being untrustworthy and working with who they said was a criminal.

Do I think they will make serious efforts to reform their brand? Probably not. Not until they lose big in more elections. If they lose in 2020 as well, then that may be the breaking point. It will have meant that they have only held the White House for 8 of the past 28 years, and that could create substantial pressure on the party to actually try and change.

Anyway, who really knows. Interesting to wonder about though.
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Virginiá
Virginia
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2016, 06:13:40 PM »

Obviously no one really knows, but I have my predictions.

I feel like the GOP would change after a landslide loss to Hillary, but not necessarily for the better.  The Cruz wing of the party would win the nomination, though perhaps not Cruz himself, on the ridiculous argument that Trump lost because he was "not a real conservative".  Hillary will win reelection against the essentially unelectable Cruz/Cotton/etc., and the GOP will be left scratching their heads wondering how they lost, just like in 2012.

I think that four consecutive nationwide losses might be enough for the GOP to finally take the 2012 autopsy seriously.  If they do moderate their policies, and reform their message, then they could be in a good position to win in 2024.  If they refuse to change though, I have no idea what could possibly happen.  Whatever it is, it wouldn't be good for the GOP.

After 4 straight election losses for the GOP, Democratic fatigue starts to settle in more.

If Hillary or whoever the Democratic president is in 2020 - 2024 has high approval ratings (or something like Obama's right now), then it won't matter. There is no "rule" of politics limiting parties to a certain number of terms in the White House. If people are happy with the incumbent's party and Democrats continue to expand or even just maintain their electoral college advantage, then they can win again and again.

Further, if Republicans continue to perform terribly with younger voters and fail to make more significant inroads in any older demographics, then they will find themselves running too low on support. Their base is aging and dying off by the day. If they can't pick up new voters, then it is really irrelevant how long a Democrat has been in the White House. If Democrats and independents are satisfied, then Republicans can whine and cry all they want, but it won't change the fact that they won't have the support to vote in one of their own.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
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*****
Posts: 18,899
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2016, 02:31:37 PM »

If Hillary or whoever the Democratic president is in 2020 - 2024 has high approval ratings (or something like Obama's right now), then it won't matter. There is no "rule" of politics limiting parties to a certain number of terms in the White House. If people are happy with the incumbent's party and Democrats continue to expand or even just maintain their electoral college advantage, then they can win again and again.

Further, if Republicans continue to perform terribly with younger voters and fail to make more significant inroads in any older demographics, then they will find themselves running too low on support. Their base is aging and dying off by the day. If they can't pick up new voters, then it is really irrelevant how long a Democrat has been in the White House. If Democrats and independents are satisfied, then Republicans can whine and cry all they want, but it won't change the fact that they won't have the support to vote in one of their own.

How is having ONE party dominance in the white house healthy for the country?

I never said that?

All I said was that there is no reason either party couldn't dominate the White House for decades if they maintain a significantly larger base of support in both the PV and EC. It's more unlikely at the national level, but it is pretty common in individual states for Governor. It's not like both Republicans and Democrats haven't had a lock on the WH for decades in the past, either. 1860 - 1932 was a period of only briefly interrupted Republican rule and 1932 - 1952 was 20 years of a Democratic White House. 1968 - 1992 only saw 1 Democrat in the WH, and Carter may not have even won had Watergate never happened.

One party rule generally doesn't always work out, but it could. In the end, it really depends on how the people feel about their leaders.
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