Protectionism vs. free trade is frankly a very minor issue in the political battles of today, and this arrangement is also both not too far from what we already have, as well as arguably more ideologically consistent. A social liberal Democratic party that gets the bulk of its vote from a coalition between educated, secular whites and minorities, and appeal to them on issues such as friendliness towards immigration, civil rights, and a healthy respect for science and scholarship is a party that can very comfortably and cogently advocate for free trade. The Pubs would presumably take a socon "national conservative" turn, and maybe they'd eat further into the white working class, but would also fall further in coastal suburban areas.
Basically, just a acceleration of the trends we've seen over the past 15 years anyway. The Dems would continue to struggle in the House, but should be fine for the Presidency.
This could be the map in a relatively even year:
Dem: 255
Rep: 190
Tossup: 86
Not too far from what we have now; the Dems drop in the Midwest, but work down the southeast coast, solidify the Southwest (though Arizona is pretty stubborn), and break through in Alaska.
I'd say Arizona and Montana would turn purple before Alaska does but otherwise this is spot-on.
Even if the rest of the world retaliates for the GOP's tariffs by refusing to buy any of Alaska's oil?
