France 2012: the official thread

[Insula Dei]

So, and I realize this is not very respectful, will recent events result in a Sarko-Le Pen boost?

[Insula Dei]

Unemployment rate's fallen! SARKOMENTUM!

Actually wasn't there a slight bump?

[Insula Dei]

Well, if Hollande loses this, that's not a sign of his or the PS's ineptness. They haven't done anything spectacularly wrong*, nor have they been especially unlucky. What on earth it would prove, I'm not really sure.


*: At the very least they have done nothing that would warrant going from 63-37 to losing the election.

[Insula Dei]

What will be happening with the National Assembly if Hollande is elected President?  Can he dissolve it early, and would he want to if he only wins over Sarkozy by a small amount?  Has
cohabitation been discussed on the campaign trail?

Under the Quinquennat National Assembly elections are held a few months after the Presidential Election anyway, if that's what you're asking. So, normally speaking Hollande shouldn't worry about cohabitation. I have no idea whether we should expect that election to be competitive, but I suppose a leftwing win would be very, very likely after a Hollande victory.

[Insula Dei]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Empire

Actually this deserves a facepalm but because I'm in good mood today I'll just say to you that we are talking about the state of Italy which was founded in 1861.

...as a result of some smashing military victories.

Against Austrians and other Italians, admittedly, so I guess it doesn't count, but still.

The French won the 1859 war for them and their ineptness on the battlefield in 1866 arguably cost them Venezia Giulia and Trentino at that date. So it certainly doesn't count

[Insula Dei]

The quality of this thread has rapidly decreased, I see.

[Insula Dei]

Mediapart published a document 'proving' Khaddafi's financial support for Sarko in 2007 today.

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/article/2012/04/28/un-document-prouverait-le-financement-de-la-campagne-de-sarkozy-par-kadhafi_1692759_1471069.html

I find it difficult to estimate how big this is. But shouldn't this be very, very 'ouch' for Sarkozy if true?

[Insula Dei]

Didn't watch the debate, but the press over here generally seems to think Hollande won rather comfortably on points, even if it wasn't some knock-out victory. 

[Insula Dei]

Yeah I noticed someone pronouncing it Beh-rou as well on France 2 and thinking to myself that I had been mispronouncing the name for all that time. I feel vindicated now.