Who carries Arizona?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who carries Arizona?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's very hard to see Trump winning AZ so what the polls, while Lake loses it, so Biden

[Progressive Pessimist]

I know that the polls currently aren't really backing it up, but I expect abortion and election subversion to galvanize Democrats in November, much like we saw in 2022.

[xavier110]

AZ is Biden’s best swing state for a lot of reasons. He should win it even if he loses, IMO. Abortion on the ballot, the center of the suburban Trump resistance, the hardening of a core slice of McCain Republicans as de facto Dems, favorable migration, a terrible GOP, etc.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

AZ is a must win state for Biden and the fact that its a tossup for him right now is not a good sign. Even Meghan McCain of all people is getting squeamish on Biden and the Dems. She is even supporting downballot Rs now which she didn't do in previous years. She won't vote Trump but I also doubt she goes for Biden this time around. But yeah, Biden's presidency has been a complete dumpster fire in the eyes of most people, including moderate suburbanites who backed him 4 years ago. Around a year ago I had AZ as Lean D, but now I can actually see an argument for Trump being favored.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Pure toss-up, gun to my head, trump takes it.

[SnowLabrador]

Pure toss-up, gun to my head, trump takes it.

[MillennialModerate]

This one is tough - it’s more rigid than most of the swing states. The abortion law being repealed might subside the turnout factor for Dems. To me it’s probably the toughest one to call. I guess I’d say Trump but to me of all the swing states AZ would be second to most likely go Dem.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This one is tough - it’s more rigid than most of the swing states. The abortion law being repealed might subside the turnout factor for Dems. To me it’s probably the toughest one to call. I guess I’d say Trump but to me of all the swing states AZ would be second to most likely go Dem.

There's still an unpopular 15 week ban on the books, and a referendum meant to overturn it.

[Randy Marsh]

Could go either way but it’s unscientific not to at least tilt it to Trump when he’s up 3+ in the polling average

[Cyrusman]

AZ is a must win state for Biden and the fact that its a tossup for him right now is not a good sign. Even Meghan McCain of all people is getting squeamish on Biden and the Dems. She is even supporting downballot Rs now which she didn't do in previous years. She won't vote Trump but I also doubt she goes for Biden this time around. But yeah, Biden's presidency has been a complete dumpster fire in the eyes of most people, including moderate suburbanites who backed him 4 years ago. Around a year ago I had AZ as Lean D, but now I can actually see an argument for Trump being favored.

Have you felt any shift in vibes since 2020 towards Trump? Biden literally hasn't led in one AZ poll this cycle unless you include polls from last spring, when he consistently led in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Could go either way but it’s unscientific not to at least tilt it to Trump when he’s up 3+ in the polling average

AZ had a polling bias towards Rs in 20/22 it's Lean D

[Steve from Lambeth]

Safe R.

I still think Republicans will be motivated enough by the Great Electoral Travesty of 2022 to vote in sufficient numbers. It also looks as though the AZ-SC decision hasn't harmed Trump that much; he seemed to be fairly relaxed about it and rightfully* justified about the ultimate consensus that was reached.

*: I don't support abortion nor was I particularly comfortable with every notable non-legislative Republican in the state trying to inject themselves into the repeal process. I am saying that Trump was vindicated, more than any of his fellow meddlers, in thinking that the House, Senate and Governor would resolve this issue in a manner that would not greatly infuriate the mass of Arizonans.

For the record, I foresee a narrow range of potential outcomes and I don't think that Trump wins by more than a couple of percentage points. My mental lower end still has Trump up by a few thousand votes, however. I am classing AZ as Safe Trump not because I think he will win by a great margin, but because I think he is almost certain to accrue the most votes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win AZ if Gallego wins it's votes that count not polls on Eday

[BlueSwan]

I don't know what you are all on about. Trump is easily favoured here. Trump has been consistently ahead in polling and there hasn't been any indication that the abortion debacle, which has now seemingly been prevented, has put a dent in his support.

Bidens path to the presidency is PA/MI/WI and that battle is tough enough as it is.

[Bush did 311]

I think it is 50-50. Gun to my head at this point, you'd have to shoot me.

[JGibson]

I think Biden pulls it out in the end.

[SnowLabrador]

Trump, but it's his worst swing state.