De Blasio vs. Bush

[Mister Mets]

Jeb Bush would get to mock his brother for never getting to know what it feels like to have won 300+ Electoral Votes.

The default map...

Bush/ Safe carefully-vetted Republican- 337 Electoral Votes
De Blasio/ Klobuchar- 201 Electoral Votes

[Mister Mets]

yes, there probably are at least tens of thousands of people like that.  so?

OK, here's my point:
1. A more extreme ideological candidate will hurt the Dems no matter what.
2. A Fraternal Order of Police endorsement can shift margins in a close race.
3. Many people with families/relatives in law enforcement will be indirectly swayed by this.

Look, my point is that these small factors can be enough to tip a close race in crucial swing states.  That's all.  I'm not saying De Blasio would get only 125 EVs or something, just that he would lose winnable states in part due to his loss of police support.

It's also not just police officers voting against him that would hurt.

The police are relatively popular. It would be catastrophic for Democrats if support for the police becomes a partisan issue.

De Blasio is NOT a mainstream Democrat.

he managed the sitting Democratic president's wife's Senate campaign in 2000.  it doesn't get much more "mainstream" than that.

Michelle Obama ran for senate in 2000?

In 2000, Bill Clinton was the sitting President.

De Blasio has plenty of elements in his record that suggest he has more of a liberal activist background than most presidential contenders. He backed Dinkins for mayor (Keep in mind Dinkins won a close race and lost a close race in New York City) and managed Charles Rangel's campaign as well.

[Mister Mets]

Jeb Bush would get to mock his brother for never getting to know what it feels like to have won 300+ Electoral Votes.

The default map...

Bush/ Safe carefully-vetted Republican- 337 Electoral Votes
De Blasio/ Klobuchar- 201 Electoral Votes

Out of curiosity, why do you have MN going Republican (especially with Klobuchar)?

Obama won Minnesota by under eight points.

Even with Klobuchar on the Democratic ticket, I think De Blasio would lose at least four points from Obama's numbers.

The Veep doesn't matter that much, and matters less when the election result isn't in doubt.

[Mister Mets]

We can't sit here and make Democratic landslide maps against Cruz or Palin and then turn around and say De-Blasio or Sanders gets gets a close election. We can't have it both ways.

there's every indication that the Dem floor is high and getting higher.  Dems have outperformed the GOP since 1988.  5/6 PV wins; only one GOP majority (50.7% at that).

There is the question of selection bias. Since parties tend to get kicked out after two terms, a period that begins with Democrats taking the White House would be expected to include 4 PV wins.

But the floor depends on Democrats having a strong candidate. If they have someone weaker than Clinton, Gore, Kerry or Obama, the usual political rules will not apply.