New Zealand Election 2017

[Pericles]

Yes, but I said Auckland Central was the only National held one. Given the polls, I wouldn't expect much Labour held electorates to be in danger of flipping.

Hutt South could flip. Long-serving MP Trevor Mallard has retired and the National candidate Chris Bishop is pretty popular and effective(deservedly so IMO). I'm not sure if he can overcome Jacindamania but I wouldn't rule it out.

[Fubart Solman]

Yes, but I said Auckland Central was the only National held one. Given the polls, I wouldn't expect much Labour held electorates to be in danger of flipping.

Hutt South could flip. Long-serving MP Trevor Mallard has retired and the National candidate Chris Bishop is pretty popular and effective(deservedly so IMO). I'm not sure if he can overcome Jacindamania but I wouldn't rule it out.

Sad that Mallard is leaving. A few years back, he proposed resurrecting the moa, an extinct flightless bird related to the kiwi.

[Pericles]

Yes, but I said Auckland Central was the only National held one. Given the polls, I wouldn't expect much Labour held electorates to be in danger of flipping.

Hutt South could flip. Long-serving MP Trevor Mallard has retired and the National candidate Chris Bishop is pretty popular and effective(deservedly so IMO). I'm not sure if he can overcome Jacindamania but I wouldn't rule it out.

Sad that Mallard is leaving. A few years back, he proposed resurrecting the moa, an extinct flightless bird related to the kiwi.

Didn't go down well for him.

[Fubart Solman]

Yes, but I said Auckland Central was the only National held one. Given the polls, I wouldn't expect much Labour held electorates to be in danger of flipping.

Hutt South could flip. Long-serving MP Trevor Mallard has retired and the National candidate Chris Bishop is pretty popular and effective(deservedly so IMO). I'm not sure if he can overcome Jacindamania but I wouldn't rule it out.

Sad that Mallard is leaving. A few years back, he proposed resurrecting the moa, an extinct flightless bird related to the kiwi.

Didn't go down well for him.

No. No, it didn't. I remember laughing when I saw it proposed.

[Pericles]

Who won the second debate in your opinion? 

[Lachi]

Who won the second debate in your opinion? 

I haven't watched it yet.

[Fubart Solman]

Who won the second debate in your opinion? 

I haven't watched it yet.

Me neither. I'll see if I can find it on YouTube.

[Lachi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVUwhdX56oc

This poor little sod thinks Peters will be the next PM.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

[Lachi]

The media company who did the production for the debate is blocking all videos about the debate.

[Lachi]

From what I can see, one of the main points from the debate was that Steven Joyce's claim to Labour apparently having an 11 billion dollar black hole in their budget was exposed as complete and utter bullsht.

Yes, the same Steven Joyce that had this happen to him:

[Pericles]

It's disappointing how cynical the National Party has revealed itself to be, that they see one poll showing Labour in the lead and decide to mislead the public and use dirty tricks, in a desperate ploy to muddy the waters and deceive the electorate. I hope it backfires, as it deservedly should.

[mvd10]

So Trump and May (horrible people who ran horrible campaigns) win their elections while the NZ Nats (who had a decent track record) might end up losing? I f**king hate conservatives in 2017. Anyway, is there a chance that it will be an UK 2017-style landslide with young voters? Ardern does seem like someone who appeals a lot to young people (+ the free three years of tertiary education, but aren't most people aged 18-29 beyond that already?). Then again I don't think English is as toxic to young people as May (or Brexit) was in the UK.

[mileslunn]

So Trump and May (horrible people who ran horrible campaigns) win their elections while the NZ Nats (who had a decent track record) might end up losing? I f**king hate conservatives in 2017. Anyway, is there a chance that it will be an UK 2017-style landslide with young voters? Ardern does seem like someone who appeals a lot to young people (+ the free three years of tertiary education, but aren't most people aged 18-29 beyond that already?). Then again I don't think English is as toxic to young people as May (or Brexit) was in the UK.

It's not over and also New Zealand unlike the US or UK uses proportional representation so it will probably come down to whomever New Zealand First backs and they've formed governments with both and don't seem to be leaning in anyone direction.  There is a slight chance Labour-Green coalition may be possible, but at the moment looks unlikely.  As for youth turnout, hard to say but definitely possible.  Not just the UK, but also in Canada 2 years ago you saw a youth turnout surge for Trudeau.  In the US you saw it for Obama not Clinton so it does seem for parties on the left (not so much the right as they tend do better amongst older voters who always vote) turnout amongst millennials is key to their success.

[Lachi]

Prediction (September 6)

Labour: 53 (+1)
National: 51 (+1)
NZ First: 10 (-2)
Greens: 6 (-1)
Māori: 2
ACT: 1
TOTAL: 123 (61/62 will be needed for a majority, due to overhang seats)

Most likely coalitions (no changes)
Labour-Green-Māori (61)
National-NZ First (62)
Labour-NZ First (64)

I am rating this election currently as a toss up, tilt National, but with both parties saying they would work with Winston Peters in some way, anything could happen.

[Pericles]

A meme has been circulating that Joyce failed 8 economics papers at uni. It turns out he quit most and only actually failed one. The one he did fail though was 'Labour Economics.'

[Fubart Solman]

New ONE News/Colmar Brunton poll

Labour - 43%
National - 39%
NZ First - 9%
Green - 5%
Māori - 2%
TOP - 2%
ACT - 0.1%

[mileslunn]

New ONE News/Colmar Brunton poll

Labour - 43%
National - 39%
NZ First - 9%
Green - 5%
Māori - 2%
TOP - 2%
ACT - 0.1%

If those numbers hold I think a Labour-Green-Maori or perhaps even a Labour-Green coalition would be sufficient thus a progressive one whereas up until now it was assumed New Zealand First would be the kingmaker.  Under this would they be able to still form a National-New Zealand First as I cannot see the Greens going into coalition with National. 

Off course there is still over 2 weeks left and I suspect as the frontrunner Ardern will come under more scrutiny, so will the momentum continue resulting in a bigger labour win than expected or is this a case of Labour peaking too soon.  Will find out over the next little while which it is or perhaps maybe things will stabilize.

[MAINEiac4434]

New ONE News/Colmar Brunton poll

Labour - 43%
National - 39%
NZ First - 9%
Green - 5%
Māori - 2%
TOP - 2%
ACT - 0.1%

I need an "ITS HAPPENING" gif with JACINDA instead of Ron Paul.

[Fubart Solman]

New ONE News/Colmar Brunton poll

Labour - 43%
National - 39%
NZ First - 9%
Green - 5%
Māori - 2%
TOP - 2%
ACT - 0.1%

I need an "ITS HAPPENING" gif with JACINDA instead of Ron Paul.

Same here! Not sure how to add text to a gif or if there's suitable source material though.

Also, prediction time for me.

Labour 42% 52 Seats
National 38% 48 Seats
NZ First 9% 11 Seats
Greens 5.85% 7 Seats
Māori 1.9% 2 Seats
TOP 1.6% 0 Seats
ACT 0.3% 1 Seat (overhang)
Mana 0.2% 0 Seats
United Future 0.05% 0 Seats
Others 1.1% 0 Seats

[Lachi]

If NZ First falls by just 2, the Nationals WILL NOT be able to form a majority, as the Greens will not work with English.

I am now rating this election as Lean Labour

[Pericles]

The Stuff Leader's debate didn't seem to go well for English. The best he could do on Jacinda was calling her 'stardust'.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/96581255/live-english-ardern-face-off-in-stuff-leaders-debate

[Lachi]

When they asked who Ardern would work with, why the hell did they completely leave out Māori?! Labour-Green-Māori makes up a majority.

Also, Nationals still peddling their bullsh**t "Labour has a budget black hole"

This is going to destroy the Nationals.

[Pericles]

The 'budget hole' is National's 'alternative facts', trying to deceive and mislead the voters of New Zealand. However it appears they are smart enough not to fall for it.

[Lachi]

The stuff poll on who won the debate:


Of course it's just an online poll, but the consensus across the country is that Ardern won.

[Fubart Solman]

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/public-politicians-divided-over-water-tax.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.