This poll's laughable. Obama will be lucky to get 41% in Texas this time
President Obama will likely do better in Texas in 2012 than in 2008 ... probably getting 46% or so of the vote. That is far from enough to win except if the Right is splintered with a third-party or Independent challenge to the Republican nominee. If the President wins Texas in a 46-35-19 split then he has a Reagan-like landslide in the electoral vote anyway.
Winning 38 electoral votes may not be President Obama's objective. The state has an open Senate seat and a raft of available Congressional seats, mostly in urban areas and the Rio Grande Valley (don't double-count El Paso), that have shaky Republican incumbents. If the Democrats can exploit the appeal of President Obama in the right places, then they can make a big difference in 2013 with Congress -- far more than the difference between 350 and 390 electoral votes.
How badly (relatively) Rick Perry does in contrast to Dubya (who was Governor) and John McCain (who had no ties to Texas) shows how weak the Republican position is getting in Texas.
The Hispanic vote is growing rapidly in Texas, and it is decidedly Democratic. Maybe not as Democratic as in Colorado, but that may be a question more of organization than of attitudes.
