Turkish general election, June 7th 2015

[ag]

The main question mark is therefore whether HDP will make it to the threshold. If so, AKP’s life could be a bit more complicated. If not, that’s 9% lost votes automatically granted to them, and they should win big.

Incidentally, this is true in practice though not in theory - since the results all over Kurdistan* will presumably be along the lines of HDP 45-60, AKP 35-50, Kemalists at joke levels, again.

In the presidential election, the CHP actually beat out the AKP in Eskişehir. What was the deal there?

The AKP never took more than three of the six seats there, so hardly an unusual result.

No idea what's driving relative Kemalist strength there and couldn't do any better than guessing that the usual reasons (settlement of post 1918 DPs, military presence) also apply here.

Universities, I beleive.

[ag]

If the AKP is denied a majority, will the other parties form an anti-Erdogan coalition or will one of the opposition parties prop up an AKP minority/form a coalition with the AKP? Or is it too early to tell?

Most likely HDP will prop AKP, but not for free. The problem is that HDP and MHP hate each other, and CHP are too Kemalist to find dealing with the Kurds easy. If not for Erdogan, HDP and AKP would be a natural coalition. Hopefully,  HDP will be able to strengthen the non-Erdogan forces in AKP.

[ag]

BTW, don't current totals already include the expat vote? If not, the AKP might expect a little bump when those are added.

So would HDP.

[ag]

I'm worried that the power-hungry Islamo-fascist pseudo-dictator Erdogan is going to manipulate the results, so that his AKP remains in charge ...

Please keep the excessive hyperbole under control. This board isn't for this kind of nonsense.

I'm sorry to read that you don't like the truth ...

Besides, this is a free board. I can write whatever I want. Thx.

No its not. but the evidence shows you were wrong in anycase.

The evidence shows nothing like that: who knows if the AKP didn't get 35% in reality and all the ballot stuffing, intimidation and other irregularities pushed them up to the current 43% ?

There is a great preponderance of evidence this is not the case. Very consistent with polls.

[ag]

Maybe, but there was a downward-trend for the AKP before the election. Which means election faking on behalf of the AKP was possible, but it seems they realized that they were around 40% and that only a massive faking would get them to a majority (which would have not gone unnoticed). So they faked only 2%+ ...

While you were ranting, the reported AKP vote share has gone from around 43% to 41.82%. Chances are, they will end up with between 40% and 41% (Kurdish areas are underreporting). Hard to see evidence even for those 2%.

[ag]

Tender, you might wanna stop repeating your nonsense instead of digging deeper. The Austrian perspective on Turkey is interesting in its own right though.

Anyway, very happy to see HDP get in and AKP getting a deserved blow. Exciting to see where it goes from here.

Gustaf, I find it odd that you think I'm only attacking Erdogan/AKP because I'm an Austrian (and all Austrians of course hate Turks ... )

That is certainly not the case, because I frequently attack Putin, Orban and the likes with the same enthusiasm. They are all the same bastards.

Well: the fact is, they are not the same. Putin is a dictator, and Russia has no elections. Hungary and Turkey have authoritarian, but elected, rulers.

[ag]

Tender, you might wanna stop repeating your nonsense instead of digging deeper. The Austrian perspective on Turkey is interesting in its own right though.

Anyway, very happy to see HDP get in and AKP getting a deserved blow. Exciting to see where it goes from here.

Gustaf, I find it odd that you think I'm only attacking Erdogan/AKP because I'm an Austrian (and all Austrians of course hate Turks ... )

That is certainly not the case, because I frequently attack Putin, Orban and the likes with the same enthusiasm. They are all the same bastards.

Well: the fact is, they are not the same. Putin is a dictator, and Russia has no elections. Hungary and Turkey have authoritarian, but elected, rulers.

Just look at what Erdogan plans to do, he wants to increase power for himself, he is trying, although subtly to desecularize Turkey.

Just look at what Putin has done: and there is nothing subtle there.

[ag]

On latest results HDP caught up with MHP: both are at 80 seats, it seems.

[ag]

A Credit Suisse report indicates that the most likely outcome is an AKP minority government followed by a mid-term election in about 18 months.

Hopefully, whoever supports the minority in the interim, would condition the support on partially detatching AKP from Erdogan.