538 Model Megathread

[Wells]

People appear to be confusing Nate Silver himself and Nate Silver's model. During the primaries, Nate's models were generally bullish on Trump, while Silver himself. . .

[Wells]

It's getting really close in the new now-cast model. Trump is up to a 46% chance to win. (NH goes to Trump. I'm sure nobody is going to whine about that.)

Clinton 274
Trump 264

[Wells]

And now Nate Silver has everybody's favorite tipping point state odds! The top five (according to polls-only) are:

Florida 15.2%
Pennsylvania 10.9%
Ohio 9.0%
Virginia 7.2%
North Carolina 5.9%

They also have a voter power index. It turns out that voters from Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire are very powerful.

[Wells]

I am surprised the Nov Polls-only forecast has Trump's chances at 47%.   I would imagine the model takes into account the temporary GOP post-convention bounce.   

It did

It doesn't. Only polls-plus does that.

[Wells]

For the first time Trump leads in polls-only forecast 50.1% vs 49.9%. Of course, it's due RNC-bounce, since we don't have any post-DNC polls yet. But still...

That's weird because the now-cast has gone back to a Clinton victory.

[Wells]

The current Now-Cast map:

Clinton 342
Trump 196

[Wells]

The current Now-Cast map:

Clinton 342
Trump 196

RIP TN Volunteer

I actually just posted it here to trigger him.

[Wells]

Damn it feels good to be a gangsta

Good for you.

[Wells]

I wonder how much of a hit Hillary will take today from the Emerson PA/MI/OH polls.

They're a B rated pollster with a sizeable R bias, so I'm not really sure. Maybe she'll lose .5% or something like that.

[Wells]

Absolutely astounding that fraudster Nate Silver is making Donald Trump not the biggest conman in this election.

So are you still supporting Trump or not?

[Wells]

Absolutely astounding that fraudster Nate Silver is making Donald Trump not the biggest conman in this election.

So are you still supporting Trump or not?

Sarcasm is in the air!

I know every post he makes is a joke (especially if it involves Trump), but I was very entertained by his Trump support.

[Wells]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

That's what I'm scratching my head over. I get that he includes all the funky tracking polls, but you'd think more traditional polls would get weighted higher

Even the tracking polls don't show Trump expanding his lead anymore, though. I wish there was a place on the site where you could see a list of the most recent additions to the model forecast.

It's right here: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

[Wells]

To me the thing that makes the least amount of sense is there have been 3 Florida polls released since yesterday with Clinton up (+1,+5,+5), yet Trump's odds in Florida keep spiking?

If you look at his poll adjustments, one of them is Adjust for trend line, which helps Trump by 2% in Florida. There could be an error which causes a feedback loop, or it could be that the new trend hasn't fully manifested yet, or the model is getting overrun by junk polls.

[Wells]

The problem is Florida. Why is Trump still favored, and why did his odds go up today? I know, the trend, but Monmouth last polled it a month ago, so at that point, the statute of limitations for a trend should go out the window. It could've been a lot worse if Monmouth conducted the poll last week.

Also, he just gave Nate Cohn an explanation for adjusting Siena poll to Trump +1. He basicaly says that Siena was D leaning this cycle because their NY polls were strongest for Clinton out of 10 different pollsters.

Silly reasoning. Safe state polling is almost always less accurate than swing states. Are Nate & Co. really basing their 2 point D-house effect on some NY Siena polls? Isn't the methodology of the FL Upshot/Siena poll also completely different?

St Leo University Poll today of Florida had Clinton at +5 when a month ago they had her at +14.

Read the first paragraph of that post and try again.

[Wells]

Who said that Nate Silver had turned into a partisan GOP hack now that the FiveThirtyEight model has Clinton as a 75% or better favorite?

Oh discredited fraud Nate Silver is still a paid GOP operative. Even he can't show Trump ahead anymore!

Nate Silver just can't catch a break. Conservatives think he's a liberal hero and liberals think he's a paid GOP operative.