The Case for Kasich as POTUS

[PeteB]

Kasich seems to be continuously underestimated by all the pundits yet here he is, in the final three.  And even after his trouncing of Trump by over 11 points in OH, not many seem to be taking him seriously!?!

As I have been predicting all along, he is in the final round(s) with Trump and we shall see how that battle will develop!  Here is a detailed case why I believe he will end up as the GOP nominee and, assuming he beats Clinton, the next POTUS:

1. He is the most qualified
Yes, the mantra is that voters don't want (Washington) experience in this election, and would prefer an outsider, but I just don't buy it.  At some point realization has to set in that experience matters.  We can all dream that we are qualified to personally coach the Dallas Cowboys, or that an outsider can come in and effectively command the world's largest military and economy, but unfortunately neither is true.  Until recently there were a few other choices, but now we are down to three.  Cruz has some government experience but very little actual professional experience and is simply viewed as not a team-player and a "loose cannon".  Trump presides over a large private company, where he answers to noone and simply doesn't even understand the obstacles he would be faced with, in a US democratic check and balance system. In addition to the lack of government experience, he has a questionable work ethic (he has had ample time to beef up on the issues, and he still sounds like a Reality TV contestant, rather than a candidate for POTUS).  If this was the Great Depression, maybe such a populist candidate could get elected, but not today!  Kasich on the other hand has governing experience in spades, actual results on the resume, a happy electorate in his own state and, while we can disagree with any of his policies, choosing him is safe and does not threaten the stability of the system and our whole way of life!

2. Republicans Want to Win in November
The GOP has been shut out of the White House for eight years.  No Republican wants to extend that to twelve.  Yet only the most ardent partisans can delude themselves that Trump or Cruz could win in November!  Cruz couldn't get elected Committee Chair by his own colleagues in the Senate, let alone POTUS.  He is too inexperienced, too divisive and too right wing for the bulk of the electorate.  And, while Trump fires up supporters, he fires up his detractors even more.  Yes he could pick up some of the down-and-out white Democrats, but he would energize every Democrat who hasn't voted for years and every independent who is concerned about his family future, to come out and vote against him.  And, whatever I think of Clinton, she would make mincemeat out of his simplistic messages and lack of policies or ethical positions.  If he turns aggressively against her, as he has done in this cycle, he will drive every female voter and every independent away.  In fact, I will be so bold as to say that even an indicted Hillary Clinton would probably beat Trump (as he is now) in November.  Kasich is the only GOP candidate, from these three, who could appeal to independents and even Democrats and could actually beat Hillary Clinton.

3. People want good energy
Yes, I know it sounds naive counterintuitive to this cycle where "people are angry", and many believe that no politician means what they say and they are all lyin' crooks.  But people still need positive role models and want to feel good about their lives.  And as badly as some have fared in the current economy, people want assurance that they are not stepping into an even riskier situation!  Neither Trump nor Cruz provide that.  You can argue whether Kasich is too "preachy", but he does convey positive energy (PS for Trump supporters even Low Energy is better than Negative Energy ).  With a field of three, this will be more evident and people will notice.

4. It's a different ball game now
The race has changed dramatically, with only three candidates, and anyone who is using past month's data and "pundit rationale", to predict the future, will be very surprised.  There will be a change in tone and discourse in the race.  This will become a more serious race and any additional Trump theatrics will start backfiring on him.  In fact, Trump's utter lack of knowledge of the issues will become glaringly obvious.  With noone but Kasich to challenge Trump in most of the remaining states (especially in the NorthEast, where Cruz is a side player), Kasich will be able to win or significantly damage Trump in states that until recently were thought of as Trump bastions.  All three candidates may end up with a decent chunk of delegates.  Or Trump may self-destruct after he starts losing - who knows?

That is why I think Kasich will be the next POTUS.  Ultimately, the partisanship of the primary voters may prove me wrong, and he may not even get the chance.  But, on one thing I am convinced - this will be either a Clinton vs Kasich election, for a close race or a Clinton vs Anybody else election, for a Democratic Landslide.  The GOP voters can decide which one they like more!  But, don't say that you have not been warned.

[PeteB]

Part II - The Kasich Path to Victory

1. 1,237 Delegates
Many comments are raising the fact that Kasich cannot mathematically reach 1,237 delegates, before the convention. While that is true, it really does not matter because realistically (as opposed to theoretically) at this point nobody can. Cruz certainly can't do it, with the three of them still competing, and while Trump could come very close, it is highly unlikely that he will. Therefore this one is going to the Convention, where nobody would have the necessary votes on the first ballot.

2. Convention Environment
The GOP Convention is being held in Cleveland and organized by the Ohio Republican party, which is loyal to Kasich. That alone gives Kasich some procedural advantages. By that time, Trump's negatives will begin to be felt in the media and with voters, especially the independent swing voters. Democrats will be playing up his negatives and running ads.  GOP will be genuinely looking who can get elected, and the delegates would vote in subsequent ballots, not out of loyalty to Trump, Cruz or Kasich, but out of necessity to try and win the Presidency, and hold its control of Congress.

3. Later Ballot Choices
After the initial ballots, the delegates will have a choice to nominate someone else, other than the three candidates. However that course of action would compromise the GOP Candidate from the start (the Democrats would have a field day with someone like Romney who"didn't run but used backroom deals"). To have any general election credibility, the only candidate which makes sense is one of the aforementioned three! And as I said, the only electable one is Kasich. Unless, Trump and Cruz team up on the first or second ballot, Kasich will eventually be the nominee!

[PeteB]

Unless, Trump and Cruz team up on the first or second ballot,

I suspect that this will happen and I don't know why most discussions of how a brokered convention might go aren't considering it.

Well, as you can see , I am considering it!

While this is certainly a plausible scenario, there are two major problems with it.

Firstly, either Trump or Cruz need to drop out and endorse the other. Both are frankly only interested in the Presidency and I can't see them sacrificing that, especially since there is no guarantee in their minds that either can win and "compensate" the other!  In fact, strategically it makes more sense that either one endorses Kasich and becomes a GOP kingmaker, with a lot of clout in the future Kasich administration.

Secondly, the delegates may not heed their advice!! Why would an evangelical IA Christian conservative delegate, who was supporting Cruz, suddenly switch to a "morally challenged" Trump (whom they fought all along to beat), over Kasich? Why would a MA moderate Trump delegate (who was probably considering Kasich as a second choice) switch to Cruz, whose conservative values may be totally out of sync with his or hers? Kasich is well positioned to pick up the support from both sides!

[PeteB]

So, when do you start showing your PowerPoint to Republican delegates in anticipation of a contested convention?

Seriously, are trying to use the Atlas as a focus group?

Power point? I have none ?

Focus group? Atlas is anything but an average focus group!

I am posting this because I think that the strange "Trump fascination" has obscured the real candidate that the GOP has, in order to win this election.  Let's face it, both polling and anecdotal evidence show that only one of the three GOP candidates (Kasich) has a chance in the GE (and this is before the Democratic machine goes into overdrive and pillories Trump and Cruz). 

In normal election cycles, the original post in this thread would be like a claim that water is wet.  But since everyone is confused by the Trump juggernaut, people are looking at logic, and just saying that somehow it is illogical!

[PeteB]

I don't know that anybody's arguing necessarily that Kasich wouldn't be a better general election candidate than Trump or Cruz. Only that he stands next to no chance at winning the primary by any but faintly sleazy means.

And that is exactly one of my points.  Even many Trump supporters concede that Kasich is a "decent candidate", who could win the GE.  And at the end of the day, that is all that matters.  And the primary voters should be told of the possible repercussions in the most direct way possible.  If they still want to make that "protest" vote, that is their democratic right, but they should be under no illusions that "somehow" there will be no  repercussions in the general election!

[PeteB]

   Kasich brings some interesting "identity politics" attributes to the table.  Slavic on both sides of his parentage, I also read that all of his grandparents were immigrants. Raised Catholic as well, but now goes to an Anglican church. And of course, his father was a mailman.
   Depending on how the economy and stock market are doing as the year goes on, his performance as Budget Committee chair in the 90's is something he may be able to stress, and the late 90's awesome budget surpluses is something that thrifty savers like myself would find appealing. 
And of course his father was a mailman.

But you didn't mention the fact that his father was a mailman.

[PeteB]

I don't know that anybody's arguing necessarily that Kasich wouldn't be a better general election candidate than Trump or Cruz. Only that he stands next to no chance at winning the primary by any but faintly sleazy means.

And that is exactly one of my points.  Even many Trump supporters concede that Kasich is a "decent candidate", who could win the GE.  And at the end of the day, that is all that matters.  And the primary voters should be told of the possible repercussions in the most direct way possible.  If they still want to make that "protest" vote, that is their democratic right, but they should be under no illusions that "somehow" there will be no  repercussions in the general election!

You are free to make the argument that electability is all that matters. They are free to reject it, as they have been doing. Or not just to reject it out of hand, but to reject it because they disagree with it (whether or not we think their reasons for disagreement are legitimate). Characterizing every Trump vote as a "protest" vote is condescending in exactly the way a lot of these people feel they've been talked down to for years.

Side note: It sounds like I'm defending Trump voters, and I'm not. I think they're making a stupid decision for bad reasons. But talking down to them won't help.

Just to be clear - there are many people who are denigrating Trump voters - I am not one of them.  As I said in another thread, Trump tapped into some real unresolved issues such as border security, homegrown terrorism, trade imbalances and the runaway "political correctness" train.  He also spoke for those who are statistically employed but are realistically underemployed and living on the fringes (although I sincerely doubt he realized that he was doing so, at the time). 

The reason why I still say that a vote for Trump is a protest vote is because he is not offering realistic solutions.  Bombastic Reality TV rhetoric aside, he has had plenty of time to gather a competent team, come up with positions and offer workable solutions that would match the severity of the problems.  Instead of that, he has been lazy and volatile, coming up with "fly by your pants" strategies and made-for-TV moments.  All I am saying is that the primary voters, who are registering their displeasure by voting Trump, will realize sooner or later that he is an entertainer, not a leader! 

[PeteB]

To whom are you telling these things? All of us already know all of this.

So can I take that as 100% endorsement of this thread, by Atlas?

[PeteB]

Apparently the Dallas Morning News editorial board also follows Atlas closely. This just came out, pretty much using the arguments from this thread:

Editorial: Kasich can still succeed

http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20160317-editorial-kasich-can-still-succeed.ece

[PeteB]

   Is this perhaps an indicator of how young so many Atlas people are, but I find it interesting that so few on this board focus on Kasich as budget committee chair in the mid-90's.  To me that was his finest hour, and I remember watching CNN after various showdown meetings with President Clinton during the govt shutdown of late 1995 and Kasich coming out and talking about how he was getting Clinton's agreement to move federal spending to the glide path to surplus.
   I'm guessing that for many on this board the mid-90's must seem like a long time ago.

Obviously not a lot of old geezers here !

But you are right - just the fact that many do not understand the complexity of being POTUS means they are underestimating experience and, in doing so,  risking putting someone like Trump in the WH, who could trigger a trade war or a major recession. Or even comparing someone like Cruz (a clearly intelligent person but someone who hasn't run a lemonade stand) to someone like Kasich (who would probably be fully operational to handle every lever of government by the inauguration)!!

[PeteB]

Part III - Kasich the Anti-Establishment Choice

One reason to pick Kasich, that I haven't touched on may sound counterintuitive at first, but hear me out - Kasich is the ultimate anti-establishment candidate! It may surprise many, who automatically assume outsiders are independent and insiders are beholden to the party establishment.

Just the opposite is true in this case - I think that the establishment is very scared that they will have very little influence in the Kasich administration!

Why do I say that? Like Reagan in 1980, Kasich is his own person and will not be influenced, controlled or manipulated by party establishment. Yes, he may be more willing to compromise and horsetrade, but he will define and push his own agenda. If he needs to work across the aisle, to bypass GOP obstruction, he will. Just look at the Medicaid expansion in OH -yes, the establishment was concerned about supporting Obamacare, but there's your proof how independent Kasich is!

Compare that to either Cruz or Trump who are so "green" that, in spite of all their rhetoric, they will have to heavily rely on GOP infrastructure to get anything done! Or, to use a practical example, many were surprised that Lindsey Graham is supporting Cruz and not Kasich. But Kasich doesn't need Lindsey Graham to define a Middle East agenda - he knows what he wants to do and how to achieve that. Cruz on the other hand, for all his talk about carpet bombing Syria or Iraq knows squat about the ME. Where do you think Graham will have more influence?

It's kind of ironic that Trump and Cruz are "outsiders" but, should they ever be elected, insiders would finish up with most of the power!

[PeteB]

If Trump fails to win 1237 delegates before the convention, a deal should be struck that would make Cruz the Presidential nominee and Kasich the Vice Presidential nominee, think Roosevelt and Garner 1932.

I could see a deal being struck, but the other way round - Kasich at the top and someone from Cruz's camp (or even Cruz himself) as VP. If Cruz is the candidate it will be a bloodbath for the GOP in the GE!

[PeteB]

Pete,

Your prediction is not too far fetched. I will leave my opinion open as there is a possibility the delegates could vanish on Trump if Kasich gets some momentum and looks solid enough to beat Clinton in June.

We'll see. This national Rasmussen poll just came out, and I think it reinforces some of my points:

Trump 43
Cruz 28
Kasich 21

Just a couple of thoughts on the poll, in the context of this discussion:

1. While Trump's 43% looks impressive, that comes with 100% national name recognition, where both Cruz and especially Kasich lag far behind. In addition, many casual GOP voters are probably giving a vote for Trump assuming he is the de-facto nominee.

2. Kasich and Cruz are pretty close and, if you take into account that most of Cruz's strong states have already voted, Kasich is probably far ahead of Cruz in the states that have still to vote. Why any "pundits" would think that Kasich should drop out now, or that Cruz would do better against Trump than Kasich in places like CT, MD or RI continues to amaze me.

[PeteB]

An interesting "informal" poll of GOP Politico Insiders about who would win a contested Convention:

Kasich:45%
Cruz: 33%
Trump: 22%

It's funny that this is the exact reverse of the Rasmussen poll. But at least it's obvious why Trump and Cruz would like Kasich out now!

You can read the whole article (Insiders: Kasich could win a contested convention) here:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/john-kasich-contested-convention-insiders-220946

[PeteB]

The bottom line is that this was an election where Republicans seemed to have all the cards. After two terms of President Obama, the public was ready for a change. The Democratic presumptive nominee Clinton has plenty of experience, but is hardly an agent for change. Things were aligning and all that the GOP had to do was field a reasonable alternative and finish‎ with the Presidency and overall control of Congress.

Instead they botched this royally. The GOP candidates allowed the change agenda to be hijacked and dominated by the fringe elements‎, which both Trump and Cruz represent. The so-called "establishment" kept calling the wrong shots and supporting all the wrong candidates (Walker, Bush, now Cruz).

I like Kasich, although some other credible GOP choices would be really nice, but at this point, that is irrelevant. For the GOP, it's now come down to a simple choice between either Kasich or Clinton!‎

[PeteB]

There is no case for Kasich. Case closed.

I guess they didn't get your memo:

CBS/NYT national poll: Clinton beats Cruz, Trump; loses to Kasich

[PeteB]

Two new national polls today (CBS/NYT and CNN/ORC both show that out of Trump, Cruz and Kasich, only Kasich beats Hillary (he is +4 in the CBS poll and +6 in the CNN poll). Trump loses to Hillary in both polls, by double digits. Cruz loses in the CBS one and just ties Hillary in the CNN one.

We can speculate all we want about Trump or Cruz somehow overcoming that difference or drafting Romney, Ryan or Sandoval, to jump in, but the bottom line is that, if the GOP wants to win, the solution is staring us in the face - nominate John Kasich.

[PeteB]

How would the party be unified in this scenario? How would they get over the charges that they just wasted a year of everybody's time, and millions upon millions of dollars of donors' and states' money running primaries which they ultimately were going to decide didn't matter?

Unless Trump gets the 1,237 delegates, and the party tried to deny him the nomination, I don't see a problem. The candidates competed in primaries and caucuses, nobody got the required majority and one of them was chosen at the Convention. Where there would also be a problem is if someone else now tried to get into the game, at this late stage (Romney, Ryan).

As for unifying the party, are you seriously suggesting that Trump or Cruz are better positioned to unify the party than Kasich? In the CBS poll, Kasich was universally picked as the second choice of Trump and Cruz voters.

[PeteB]

How would the party be unified in this scenario? How would they get over the charges that they just wasted a year of everybody's time, and millions upon millions of dollars of donors' and states' money running primaries which they ultimately were going to decide didn't matter?

Unless Trump gets the 1,237 delegates, and the party tried to deny him the nomination, I don't see a problem. The candidates competed in primaries and caucuses, nobody got the required majority and one of them was chosen at the Convention. Where there would also be a problem is if someone else now tried to get into the game, at this late stage (Romney, Ryan).

As for unifying the party, are you seriously suggesting that Trump or Cruz are better positioned to unify the party than Kasich? In the CBS poll, Kasich was universally picked as the second choice of Trump and Cruz voters.

UNIVERSALLY? That seems difficult to believe.

And I'm not saying any of what you said. I'm asking how, if for instance Trump wound up with 1200 delegates, handing the nomination to Kasich would upend things. Not saying Trump deserves anything, not stumping for him. But to just blindly say there would be no problem seems willfully ignorant.

If Trump is so close to 1,237, I am sure that, as the renowned author of the Art of the Deal, he can strike a few deals and get the 37 votes he needs .

And I did not say there would be no complaints.  If this goes to Convention, both candidates who are not chosen will initially cry wolf.  What I am saying is that if this is done within the rules, those complaints will eventually be forgotten.

[PeteB]

How would the party be unified in this scenario? How would they get over the charges that they just wasted a year of everybody's time, and millions upon millions of dollars of donors' and states' money running primaries which they ultimately were going to decide didn't matter?

Unless Trump gets the 1,237 delegates, and the party tried to deny him the nomination, I don't see a problem. The candidates competed in primaries and caucuses, nobody got the required majority and one of them was chosen at the Convention. Where there would also be a problem is if someone else now tried to get into the game, at this late stage (Romney, Ryan).

As for unifying the party, are you seriously suggesting that Trump or Cruz are better positioned to unify the party than Kasich? In the CBS poll, Kasich was universally picked as the second choice of Trump and Cruz voters.

UNIVERSALLY? That seems difficult to believe.

And I'm not saying any of what you said. I'm asking how, if for instance Trump wound up with 1200 delegates, handing the nomination to Kasich would upend things. Not saying Trump deserves anything, not stumping for him. But to just blindly say there would be no problem seems willfully ignorant.

If Trump is so close to 1,237, I am sure that, as the renowned author of the Art of the Deal, he can strike a few deals and get the 37 votes he needs .

And I did not say there would be no complaints.  If this goes to Convention, both candidates who are not chosen will initially cry wolf.  What I am saying is that if this is done within the rules, those complaints will eventually be forgotten.

And I'm saying that last is an assertion made apparently with full confidence but no evidence.

Having "evidence" of future behavior is kind of difficult (without a time machine ).  But I do believe that if one of them fairly wins (whether with 1,237 votes before Cleveland, or at the Convention, following all the rules), that the other two would fall in line (perhaps not very enthusiastically but eventually they will).

[PeteB]

How would the party be unified in this scenario? How would they get over the charges that they just wasted a year of everybody's time, and millions upon millions of dollars of donors' and states' money running primaries which they ultimately were going to decide didn't matter?

Unless Trump gets the 1,237 delegates, and the party tried to deny him the nomination, I don't see a problem. The candidates competed in primaries and caucuses, nobody got the required majority and one of them was chosen at the Convention. Where there would also be a problem is if someone else now tried to get into the game, at this late stage (Romney, Ryan).

As for unifying the party, are you seriously suggesting that Trump or Cruz are better positioned to unify the party than Kasich? In the CBS poll, Kasich was universally picked as the second choice of Trump and Cruz voters.

UNIVERSALLY? That seems difficult to believe.

And I'm not saying any of what you said. I'm asking how, if for instance Trump wound up with 1200 delegates, handing the nomination to Kasich would upend things. Not saying Trump deserves anything, not stumping for him. But to just blindly say there would be no problem seems willfully ignorant.

If Trump is so close to 1,237, I am sure that, as the renowned author of the Art of the Deal, he can strike a few deals and get the 37 votes he needs .

And I did not say there would be no complaints.  If this goes to Convention, both candidates who are not chosen will initially cry wolf.  What I am saying is that if this is done within the rules, those complaints will eventually be forgotten.

And I'm saying that last is an assertion made apparently with full confidence but no evidence.

Having "evidence" of future behavior is kind of difficult (without a time machine ).  But I do believe that if one of them fairly wins (whether with 1,237 votes before Cleveland, or at the Convention, following all the rules), that the other two would fall in line (perhaps not very enthusiastically but eventually they will).

Ugh. I'm not asking for evidence of something that hasn't happened yet. Only evidence for why you believe everybody would just fall in line with nominating the guy that was most rejected by the party, of the last three left standing.

I was just teasing you about the time machine .

But if you want my rationale as to why they will fall in line, it's simple. Without the perception that there was foul play, there is no way to fire up their supporters against the nominee, nor to finance a potential third party bid. This is especially true of Cruz, who could either ask (and probably get) other favors in return for his support, or go third party self destruct and end his political career.

Trump could of course self-finance but unless he is completely delusional, he would have to know that the $$ he spends are going down a black hole for no other reason than to prove how big his...ego is. Whatever else I think of him, I am guessing he understands ROI and cares about his own money.

A much better course of action for both Cruz and Trump, at that point, is to secure policies and influence in the future administration, in return for their support.

But, as you said, that is just my opinion and we are talking about loose cannons here.

[PeteB]

If he is the nominee and he won fair and square, playing by the rules, why wouldn't they?

[PeteB]

If anything I am underestimating them. The average voter will just know who the chosen nominee is. If he is the nominee that the majority of voters already feel  is best to defeat Clinton, so much the better.

[PeteB]

Sigh...we'll just have to agree to disagree.

Time will tell.....

[PeteB]

The Bloomberg national poll just came out, showing 1 on 1 matchups:

Clinton 54% Trump 36% (Clinton + 8%)
Clinton 51% Cruz 42% (Clinton + 18%)
Kasich 47% Clinton 43% (Kasich + 4%)

This is now the sixth national poll showing Cruz being destroyed by Clinton while Trump gets totally obliterated, in a head to head matchup. And in every single one of them Kasich beats Hillary (and Bernie).  Six separate independent polls cannot be all wrong. Having Cruz lose by 8% rather than Trump lose by 18% does NOT make the loss any more acceptable to the GOP.

And yet the biggest problem for the GOP establishment is apparently the fact that Kasich does not want to leave the race and leave Trump and Cruz as the only options? Yep, that sure makes a whole lot of sense.

O tempora o mores!