2017 Nova Scotia election (May 30)

[136or142]

It seems every riding still has the advanced poll out.  In P.E.I the Liberals gained a few seats when the advanced polls came in, so if this is the same in Nova Scotia, the Liberals would likely end up with a narrow majority.  There are also 22,000 out of district ballots to report.

[136or142]

Burrill says "we have changed the conversation."  He very much represents a return to the party's left-wing roots.

Yes, promising everything to everybody and nobody has to pay for it.  Old style sleazy politics.

[136or142]

Seems absentee vote is VERY Liberal. Nothing done yet.

Nobody stuffs the ballot box like Liberals stuff the ballot box. (Just kidding, probably)

[136or142]

Seems absentee vote is VERY Liberal. Nothing done yet.

Nobody stuffs the ballot box like Liberals stuff the ballot box. (Just kidding, probably)

Well, apparently, absentee boxes can have 3500 votes.

These are the advanced poll voters as well as absentee.

[136or142]

I think the Liberals have a good chance to win where they're down by only eight, Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage, where they're down by around 100, Cape Breton-Richmond where they're down by 13, and Chester-St. Margaret where they're only down by 46. Since absentee is leaning Liberal, those all may be red by the time every vote is counted.

P.Cs win Cape Breton Richmond by 20 votes.  The advanced polls put the Liberals ahead briefly.

[136or142]

So I was reading up on Nova Scotia Black Canadians last night. Any Black Canadian MLA's getting elected? Maybe from the the Preston area?

1.Tony Ince, Liberal, who defeated Darrell Dexter in Cole Harbour-Portland Valley in 2013 was reelected.

2.Claudia Chender, NDP, won in Dartmouth South that Miriam Mancini took for the NDP from the Liberals in the 2015 byelection. (Miriam Mancini decided she didn't like electoral politics.)

[136or142]

The final vote totals suggest that all of the final polls were pretty decent though the CRA poll had the P.Cs a fair bit too low.  The most accurate would be to combine the Forum and the Mainstreet poll.

In their press release, either CRA or Mainstreet wrote that they had to choose a turnout model (obviously) and that their polling indicated that P.C voters had more enthusiasm for the election than Liberal voters did, so they wrote that the P.Cs could do better in the election than their final poll indicated. This turned out t be the case, and the lesser enthusiasm from Liberal voters I think was also reflected in the slightly lower turnout from 2013.

Interestingly, the turnout in, at least, the 2015 byelections in Cape Breton was not that much lower than the turnout in the general election.

Of course, the votes from Nova Scotians living in British Columbia won't be counted for two more weeks.

[136or142]

Regional vote breakdown.

Halifax Regional Municipality
Total votes: 154,079, 20 seats
Liberal: 63,051, 40.9%, 12 seats
P.C: 41,030, 26.6%, 3
NDP: 42,592, 27.6% 5
Greens: 7,406, 4.8% (The Greens ran a full slate in HRM)

Cape Breton
Total votes: 63,672, 8 seats
Liberal: 20,786, 32.6%, 2 seats
P.C: 31,276, 49.1% 5
NDP: 11,208, 17.6% 1

'Mainland' Nova Scotia (The rest of the province)
Total Votes: 181,013, 23 seats
Liberal: 73,704, 40.7%, 13 seats
P.C: 70,366, 38.9%, 9
NDP: 31,589, 17.5%, 1